Kenya's El Nino Test: Turning climate forecasts into resilience

Vehicles wade through floodwaters along Mombasa Road. [File, Courtesy]

El Niño is once again drawing attention to East Africa’s exposure to climate extremes. Seasonal forecasts for October–December 2026 indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. For Kenya, the priority is to translate this climate information into timely, coordinated action while strengthening resilience beyond the current rainy season.

The Kenya Meteorological Department and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre provide seasonal climate outlooks to support preparedness and planning. These forecasts offer valuable lead time, but they express probabilities rather than certainties. The impacts of rainfall depend not only on where, when and how intensely it falls, but also on catchment conditions, river responses, infrastructure, land use and the vulnerability of exposed communities.

The challenge, therefore, extends beyond anticipating rainfall. Kenya must understand how evolving weather conditions could translate into hydrological hazards and ensure that the institutions and communities responsible for managing these risks have the information and capacity to act in time.

Kenya’s varied terrain, settlement patterns and hydrological systems mean that above-normal rainfall will not affect all areas equally. Flood-prone river corridors, low-lying settlements, urban drainage systems and lakeshore communities warrant particular attention, guided by the latest forecasts and local risk assessments.

Kenya’s preparedness should cover flood-prone river basins and catchments nationwide, as well as areas vulnerable to landslides, soil erosion and urban waterlogging. Heavy or prolonged rainfall can cause riverine and flash flooding, trigger slope failures and increase sediment transport into water systems. The resulting risks vary with rainfall patterns, terrain, land use and local vulnerability. Current forecasts, hydrological observations and local risk assessments are therefore essential for identifying priority areas and guiding timely, targeted preparedness measures.

The consequences can extend well beyond the areas directly affected by flooding. Damage to roads, bridges, schools, health facilities, irrigation schemes and energy infrastructure can disrupt essential services and economic activity. Erosion and sediment transport may degrade water quality, while damage to farms and businesses can undermine livelihoods and household food security.

These are potential impacts, not predictions, that specific locations will necessarily flood. Identifying where risks are greatest requires rainfall forecasts to be interpreted alongside river-flow observations, lake levels, catchment conditions and local knowledge. This integration provides the basis for moving from a general awareness of possible hazards to targeted and proportionate preparedness measures.

Kenya has important institutional foundations for managing hydro-climatic risks. The Kenya Meteorological Department provides weather forecasts and advisories, while the Water Resources Authority, the National Drought Management Authority, county governments and other agencies contribute to water-resource management and disaster-risk reduction. The priority is to build on these efforts by strengthening the connections between climate information, hydrological intelligence and decisions on the ground.

Different types of forecasts serve different purposes. Seasonal outlooks inform strategic planning and the early positioning of resources, while shorter-range forecasts and updated warnings support immediate operational decisions. Their value increases when they are interpreted alongside river levels, catchment wetness, reservoir conditions and the vulnerability of downstream communities. As weather and hydrological conditions evolve, forecasts and warnings must also be updated to reflect changing risks.

One important opportunity is to strengthen impact-based early warning: Moving beyond predicting weather conditions to assessing their likely consequences for people, infrastructure, livelihoods and essential services. Combining meteorological forecasts with river observations, flood-risk maps and vulnerability assessments can help identify where impacts may occur, who is most exposed and what action is needed.

For example, forecasts of intense rainfall, considered alongside rising river levels and local exposure, could trigger targeted community alerts, inspections of vulnerable bridges, preparation of evacuation routes and the pre-positioning of emergency supplies. For such measures to be effective, warnings must reach the relevant authorities and communities in good time, use clear and accessible language, and communicate practical actions that people can take.

Community knowledge is equally important in this process. Residents often know where rivers overtop their banks, which roads become impassable and which settlements are repeatedly affected. Integrating this experience with scientific observations can improve local risk assessments, strengthen trust in warnings and ensure that preparedness measures reflect conditions on the ground.

Ultimately, effective early warning depends on more than the availability of forecasts. It requires clear communication, defined responsibilities and coordination among national agencies, county governments, researchers, professional societies, humanitarian organisations, businesses and communities. This need for collaboration also highlights the wider role that professional expertise can play in strengthening Kenya’s preparedness.

National professional societies and associations can help bridge scientific knowledge, professional practice and public policy. Drawing on expertise in hydrology, meteorology, water resources, engineering, environmental science and disaster-risk management, they can complement government efforts by strengthening technical dialogue, professional capacity and evidence-informed decision-making.

Their contribution can begin well before an extreme event occurs. By convening interdisciplinary discussions, professional societies can help interpret seasonal forecasts in the context of river basins, reservoirs, lakes and catchments. They can support capacity development in hydrological monitoring, flood forecasting, risk mapping and the communication of uncertainty. They can also connect universities, public institutions, county practitioners, private-sector actors and communities to share research findings, operational experience and practical solutions.

Technologies such as geographic information systems, satellite observations, hydrological modelling and real-time monitoring offer valuable opportunities to improve understanding of evolving risks. However, their effectiveness depends on reliable data, appropriate technical interpretation and clear links to operational decisions. Professional collaboration can help ensure that these tools inform practical preparedness rather than remain confined to research or technical reports.

A practical step would be to establish an inclusive National Hydro-Climatic Preparedness Dialogue, bringing together relevant government agencies, county governments, universities, professional societies, development partners, the private sector and community representatives. Rather than duplicating existing institutional responsibilities, the dialogue could focus on agreed priorities and concrete outcomes.

These outcomes could include identifying priority catchments and gaps in monitoring, recommending practical arrangements for sharing hydro-meteorological information, improving communication between technical agencies and local authorities, and developing a roadmap for long-term resilience. Such a platform would help connect available expertise with the decisions required before, during and after extreme events.

Professional societies can therefore contribute to a more coordinated national response by translating scientific and technical knowledge into practical recommendations, supporting professional development and promoting sustained dialogue across disciplines. This collaboration is most valuable when it complements public institutions and contributes to a shared national preparedness agenda.

While the October–December 2026 season provides an immediate reason to strengthen preparedness, lasting resilience requires action beyond any single forecast period. Inadequate drainage, development in flood-prone areas, catchment degradation, the loss of natural flood-storage areas and gaps in hydrological monitoring can all increase the consequences of heavy rainfall. Addressing these underlying vulnerabilities is therefore as important as improving short-term warnings.

Reliable hydrological data and monitoring networks should be treated as essential public infrastructure. Sustained investment in rainfall and river gauges, data-sharing platforms, flood-risk mapping and skilled personnel would strengthen routine water-resource management while improving the ability to anticipate and respond to extreme events.

Long-term resilience also requires risk-sensitive land-use planning, improved drainage, protection of natural flood-storage areas and better catchment management. Where appropriate, nature-based solutions can complement engineered infrastructure by helping to retain water, reduce runoff and manage erosion. Because rivers and catchments cross administrative boundaries, these measures must be supported by effective coordination between upstream and downstream communities, counties and national institutions.

Responsibility for advancing this agenda is shared. Government agencies can strengthen existing preparedness and response arrangements; researchers and professional societies can contribute scientific evidence and technical advice; businesses can support resilient infrastructure and communication systems; and communities can help ensure that plans reflect local conditions and needs. These contributions should form part of sustained investment and planning, rather than being mobilised only when a major climate event approaches.

The message is one of informed readiness, not alarm. Seasonal forecasts do not guarantee flooding, but uncertainty should not be a reason for inaction. By following official advisories, improving the use of hydrological information and strengthening coordination, Kenya can reduce avoidable losses and better protect lives, livelihoods and essential services.

Kenya should therefore make hydro-climatic preparedness a sustained national priority. The task is to connect climate forecasts with hydrological intelligence, warnings with practical action, and immediate response with long-term investment in resilient water systems and infrastructure. Achieving this requires government support, professional collaboration, reliable information and meaningful community participation.

Kenya’s strongest defence against hydro-climatic extremes is not prediction alone, but the ability to turn credible information into timely, coordinated action.

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The author is an Associate Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources, and the Chairman of the Hydrological Society of Kenya