Is KK locking us into a Generational Trap?

President William Ruto, March 9, 2026. [PSC]

We’re now in the semi-finals of, in my view, the latest version of one of the world’s great social experiments, sorry, sports tournaments – the Football World Cup 2026. 

The context here – accepting different rules of recognition – is that this is the competitive outcome of FIFA’s 211 membership as against, say, the International Olympic Committee’s 206-member club, before we get to the politics of the UN’s 193 (WHO 194, IMF 190, WTO 164) or security-driven Interpol’s 196.  It’s the difference between FIFA membership as market expansion (inclusion?) and others as a political-financial burden (exclusion?).  Which might be why this tourney looks more exciting for the everyday person in the Global South (as an experience) than the Global North (as a result).

If I include the final as the only game I watched as a kid in 1974, this is the 14th World Cup I am following, during which time the heart has gradually ruled over the head when it comes to prediction. 

Tonight’s and tomorrow’s semi-finals should be epic encounters.  Spain versus France is an intriguing system clash that will rest on fantastic individuals.  England against Argentina looks like an epochal, chaotic slugfest involving fantastic individuals that’s ultimately decided by systems.

You could write a book on the non-football history in these semi-final rivalries, but ideally, these semis and next Sunday’s final should stylistically return us to the triumph of vertical fluidity over horizontal fog.  Of course, while organizationally, hence politically, football is about the people, its order today derives from a clever “panem et circenses” (bread and circuses) elite consensus. 

With FIFA considering a 64-team tournament, up from 48 this year, and 32 before, you would think our local ruling elites might be focused on how Kenya’s youth get us to World Cup 2030, instead of mobilising young goons to provide an early warning for 2027, to disrupt tiny by-elections like Thursday’s Ol-Kalou or to disturb the idea of free democratic voice and expression.

Oh, don’t tell me that China, India or Singapore don’t do football; I prefer Japan or South Korea!  Football is the great equaliser; however, this particular World Cup has seemed to be. 

For a Kenya that tends to celebrate individual achievement, football is also a team sport, which is why any “New Singapore” framing must go beyond Lee Kuan Yew as a person to the elite consensus that included Goh Keng Swee, Sinnathamby Rajaratnam and Hon Sui Sen.   You get the feeling that our predilection with “one man shows” and “messiahs” is our great undoing.

Which is why, to completely change the subject away from football, you wonder if the current KK leadership is locking us into policy change that will be impossible to reverse without harmful social impact.

Securitisation is locking up future revenues for anything from half to a full generation.  From roads to railways to housing, we’re headed to a trillion in locked future levies.

The National Infrastructure Fund (NIF) is locking out discretionary spending on the argument that “we must build so that they will come”.  The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), ostensibly a saving for future generations, is “let’s borrow (at high rates) to save (at low ones)”.   Meanwhile, the “Imperial Sunroof” traverses the country dishing out projects in true Potemkin Village style.

Even without other lock-ins, such as those from liability management operations that basically kick our debt can down the road, it’s almost as if, to use corporate language, we’ve given up on fixing our income statement (the fiscus) but think we can still grow our balance sheet (wealth) with off-balance sheet financial jiggery-pokery.  Or differently, financialise before we industrialise.  And we are still borrowing not just for tomorrow’s investment, but today’s consumption.

Since we started with football, what does this picture look like from an intergenerational lens?  As said before, until we begin to think intergenerationally, beyond youth, we are going nowhere.

For children (age 0-18) as our future economic engine, borrowing for short-term consumption rather than long-term asset creation imposes a massive future tax liability before they earn their first shilling.  However, if our politics stabilises, they have the most to gain from an SWF endowment as a safety net or safety rope/ladder, and the benefits of debt-free NIF infrastructure.  The big negative, which applies to all age groups, is the trap in today’s securitisation of tomorrow.  When they turn 18, the taxes they pay will go straight to debt, not to schools or hospitals.

For the youth (age 19-35), as Kenya’s largest demographic bloc, their transition from fiscal consumers to fiscal contributors (taxpayers) will be stalled if the structural economic reform Kenya needs continues to be delayed.  Forget demographic dividend, think demographic time bomb, otherwise known as goons and gangs.  The SWF lock might protect their future, but it cannot provide the immediate relief they need.  If the NIF leads us to a “user-pays” infrastructure model, they are out of the picture, while securitisation makes them an easy, digital tax target.

These first two groups are defined by our constitution, as is the over-60 group of older persons.  This “underfunded dependent” group is growing, but our architecture is ill-prepared.  This is where our "black tax" cycle pulls capital away from younger generations that should be investing it in new businesses or savings.  Further, the SWF pulls cash away from them, and to some extent, their pensions are now linked to the performance of NIF investments.  Securitisation poses an immediate danger where debt is prioritised over public pensions or cash transfers.

Which brings this to the only group the constitution does not define, what I call the middle-aged (36-59).  It might be a minority demographic but this is the fiscal workhorse and financial backbone of the Kenyan state.  Not only is this group heavily taxed to service historical debts and fund government overheads, but they are increasingly unable to save for their own retirement.  If children are the future winners in the SWF deal, this group are the present losers. 

And every diversion of funds away from the traditional fiscus (as in the Consolidated Fund) is a call for increased tax pressure on this group.  On the NIF, it is this group that also faces the highest systemic risk, completely dependent on the success of the projects their limited savings will fund.  Securitisation for them simply means it will not be soon before they see a lowered tax burden.

Which brings us back to the beginning.  Football as a team sport, not an individual pursuit, as the ongoing social experiment, nay, national development agenda built around elite consensus, and the voice of the people, should be.  But are we progressing this country without this consensus and voice?  I might be wrong but a quick intergenerational snapshot suggests to me that we can’t see how our future is quietly being locked up. Ol Kalou aside, enjoy the rest of the World Cup!