Reflections: Why the presidency slipped from Baba even with massive support

He held my hand as we walked towards my car parked under the leafy shade of indigenous trees. He seemed to be in deep thought. A cool gentle breeze blew over our heads as we paused. He pulled out a handkerchief from his pocket and wiped his brow.

“Bwana Atemi, what do you want us to discuss this time round?”

“Sir, I would like us to talk about our mutual friend and your presidential running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka”

His sweaty face broke into a warm smile as he chuckled. “Ok. That is fine. Let us go the Starehe Lounge for some privacy”. I never inquired from him why he had asked that we go to my vehicle.  

I regularly met with Raila Amollo Odinga, at the Parklands Sports Club. While his elder brother Oburu Odinga hit the gym and sauna, Raila would hold a series of meetings at one of the club’s lounges. On this sunny day, in 2016, I was working on Against all Odds, the autobiography of Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. As Raila and I sat at the exclusive members club, I had many questions on my mind that only, he could answer.

Kalonzo had said: “My relationship with Raila Amollo Odinga has been an interesting and intriguing one marked with drama and controversy. It is a relationship that has left me bruised and smeared in political mud and at times smiling and shinning in heroic oil. The media and political analysts have at times described us as sworn enemies. His supporters have in some instances accused me of betraying him. Some even gave me a tag; “the watermelon”

I wanted to discuss the origin of the watermelon tag that had weighed down heavily on Kalonzo. Once I brought up the topic, Raila broke into prolonged laughter then said: “I am guilty as charged. I was behind the watermelon smear campaign. In politics we sometimes throw mud at our opponents to gain mileage. My team coined that tag and we used all means to dress Kalonzo in that garb” he said as he paused to wipe his teary left eye.

He continued; “But I have learned regrettably that we were fighting a very good man. Kalonzo is actually a great leader and has become not just my running mate but also my best friend. In him I have found a man who believes in building loyalty and friendships.”   

Raila and Kalonzo had worked in the Cabinet of President Daniel arap Moi, in different portfolios. As Kanu and Raila’s National Development Party (NDP), merged, Raila was positioning himself for the country’s leadership. He placed several obstacles on Kalonzo’s path. 

“I have never known why both Moi and Raila made it their political strategy and desire to destroy my leadership advances. Raila himself told me that in 1997 he met with Richard Leaky in Leakey’s office to strategise on how to split the Kamba vote. This, they believed, would ensure that Moi did not appoint me his Vice President. Raila therefore threw his support behind the bid by my sister Charity Ngilu to vie for the presidency in 1997. Indeed the votes were divided and Kanu lost some ground in Ukambani. His plan succeeded” says Kalonzo in his book.  During the 1997 Presidential race, Raila came third after President Daniel arap Moi of Kanu and Mwai Kibaki of Democratic Party in a race that attracted 15 presidential candidates.

Raila confessed that in his bid for the presidency, he had to ensure those who would have posed great challenge were weakened and Kalonzo was one of them: “With the benefit of hindsight, if I had I not treated Kalonzo with contempt in 2007 and driven him out of my team, I would have become President of the Republic of Kenya. With the Kamba vote that went to him, even Kibaki with all his genius would not have been able to steal the vote,” Raila told me on this warm afternoon.

ODM

Kalonzo says in his book that Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi had in 2007 warned him against setting foot in Mombasa’s Tononoka grounds. The original Orange Democratic Party (ODM) of which Kalonzo and Raila were members had organised a campaign rally at Tonokoka. Musalia told Kalonzo there were plans to heckle and drive him out of the rally.

Indeed it happened. When it was Kalonzo’s turn to speak, a section of the crowed turned hostile. Youths started heckling him while waving wooden harmers in his face. He walked out with some of his supporters and eventually the party split into two; ODM and Orange Democratic Party, Kenya (ODM-K). In the 2007 presidential race, Raila ran under the ODM umbrella while Kalonzo ran with ODM-K.

Raila confessed that if he had stuck with Kalonzo in 2007, stealing of the vote would have been impossible. He also said that many false accusations had been levelled against Kalonzo.

“People have accused Kalonzo of betraying me in 2007. If truth be told, I am the one who betrayed him. Many people don’t know that it is Kalonzo who welcomed me into the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Journalist Dennis Kodhe saw Kalonzo’s potential as a party leader and presidential candidate and invited him to LDP. Kodhe and his team wanted Kalonzo to run on the LDP ticket. Kalonzo in his magnanimity welcomed me into LDP because he wanted us to form a formidable team. Soon, we created the narrative that LDP was mine. Politics, you know is about dominance” we paused to sip some tea and take a bite at the snacks.     

After the 2022 presidential race, I had another opportunity of sitting with the former Prime Minister at the Nairobi Serena Hotel. When I touched on the topic of his five misses of the presidency, he went into a moment of silence then said: “There are so many theories about that issue. I would like it to remain just that, theories.”

Many things have been said about why Raila missed the presidency five times. Some border on superstition while others delve into the spiritual realm. Millions of his ardent supporters would have done anything to ensure Baba became president.

When he first ran for the top seat in 1997, some of his supporters prayed and fasted for his victory. The same supporters had prayed for his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, when he took a stab at the presidency in 1992.

Apart from mainstream Christian churches, some followers visited “Jerusalem” the house of an Israeli Roho Prophetess, Mama Herina Akeyo tucked deep inside Kibera for prayers. Mama Herina’s story is immortalised in Kalonzo Musyoka’s autobiography Against all Odds.  

In 2007, Raila’s popularity had grown with leaps and bounds across Kenya. No politician in Kenya’s history had ever mobilised such massive support from all corners of the republic. Every indication, from opinion polls to grassroots reports showed that he was destined to become Kenya’s third president.  

Darkest chapter

The elections happened. Mwai Kibaki stole Raila’s victory and was hurriedly sworn in under the cover of darkness. As soon as the Electoral Commission of Kenya Chairman Samuel Kivuitu announced the results, violence broke out across Kenya. The country plunged into its darkest chapter. More than 1,000 people were killed and over 500,000 internally displaced. The international community quickly moved in to force a truce. Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga had to share power. The Grand Coalition government was formed with Raila becoming Prime Minister. Many agree that the presidency was ripped off Raila’s grip.

I say, Kibaki stole the election because I was at the Bomas of Kenya, editing a magazine for the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission, and observing the intrigues. John Michuki, one of Kibaki’s most influential Cabinet ministers, told the media that the push for constitutional reforms was purely meant to remove Daniel arap Moi from power. “Now that Moi is gone, we don’t need it” he said

The Kibaki government then sabotaged the review process, killing the Bomas draft constitution. Kibaki ensured that the country went into the 2007 General Election under the old Constitution which gave him absolute powers. The blood shed during the 2007/08 post-election violence rests purely on his hands.     

At the height of the post-election violence, I was helping Kalonzo to document his life in book form. I was also privy to men and women of the cloth, who were praying for the country’s peace while others had fervently prayed for Raila’s victory. Deep inside Kibra, Mama Herina Akeyo was caught up in the middle of the spiritual theory surrounding Raila’s bid for the presidency.    

I shuddered when the seven Supreme Court Judges threw away Raila’s petition against the 2022 presidential election results. Raila had suffered more than any other Kenyan politician. 

In 2022, Raila, affectionately referred to as Baba, was a clear favourite. He had political and financial heavyweights supporting his bid. President Uhuru Kenyatta and the entire State machinery played in his team. With Mt Kenya billionaires financing his campaign, and all opinion polls placing him ahead, what could possibly stop his journey to State House?

His supporters believe that the Supreme Court was unfair in its verdict. Others however argue that a mixture of team and personal blunders cost the powerful Azimio coalition victory. The loss, they say, was self-inflicted. The narrative depicting Baba as Uhuru Kenyatta’s project, hurled him into murky waters. Kenyans, and indeed most people, abhor ‘projects’.

Baba, they argue, failed to assemble a functional strategy team. He instead allowed some loud, foul mouthed, sycophantic leader to become the face of his presidential Campaign. During Azimio rallies, the legislator came out as an abusive, arrogant academic minion spewing vitriol even on those who might have helped bring votes to Azimio.

Elective positions

Veteran journalist Ken Bosire argues that Baba’s nomination of various candidates for the five elective positions in his strongholds became his Achilles heel. He killed voter passion by imposing certain candidates. Bosire says that: “Baba fought and won many political battles. But in 2022 age caught up with him. He appeared lethargic, tired, and lackluster. He didn’t have the energy for the campaign marathon. He also lived the lie of the Deep State and allowed puppet narrative get entrenched.”

Others hold extreme views. They argue that Baba had never seriously wanted to be president of Kenya. In 2007, Baba frustrated Kalonzo out of his team knowing very well that he needed the Kamba vote to get outright victory. Then, he allowed the disintegration of the powerful Pentagon team which would have served him well in 2013. His withdrawal from the 2017 fresh elections remains baffling.  His enemies say he selfishly engaged in the Handshake to the exclusion of his NASA partners; Kalonzo Musyoka; Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula. This denied him vital votes due to loss of trust.

Believers in this theory posit that for Baba, the presidency was a tool of trade, used to fundraise and for self-aggrandizement. One of my former colleagues at the Daily Nation says: “For Baba, the presidency was a business. He would work closely with the “owners of Kenya” by playing opposition. He would then ensure his team makes serious blunders that ensured he lost the race then blame it one someone else or on circumstances. While people are still debating consequences and holding protests in his support, he would emerge smiling with a handshake deal. This ensured he played a key role in every government”

One issue I never had a chance to raise with Raila was about the steam and fire that surrounded the 2017 presidential race before his eventual handshake with President Uhuru. A close friend and State House insider then told me: “Almost every week, as Raila supporters held street demonstrations, Raila would drive into State House and sit down with Uhuru for friendly talks. The two would laugh and crack jokes while enjoying their favourite drinks. There were occasions, when William Ruto, then Uhuru’s deputy couldn’t even see his boss because he was in serious meetings with Baba”

In 2017, Raila clearly won the presidential election. His victory was once more stolen. The Supreme Court annulled the results and ordered fresh elections. To the disappointment of his supporters, Raila boycotted the fresh election. Uhuru sailed through.

Raila’s distractors say that when the Supreme Court nullified the 2017 Presidential results: “It displeased Baba because it simply meant a delay of the handshake. That is why he refused to participate in the rerun giving Uhuru clear victory”

Others, like Mama Herina Akeyo argued that Baba’s biggest disadvantage was his own massive support from his Luo community. She said: “My Luo people suffer from collective pride. They will start celebrating victory long before the match begins. They will mock and tell off their opponents through song and dance. They always declare Raila victorious before even the vote is cast.  This has become a self-curse of counting chicks before they hatch” 

Some posit that Baba always abandoned his friends and loyalists when victory was almost assured. In 2022, they say, he should have maintained Kalonzo  as his running mate. The duo had been tried and tested and stood a better chance in stopping Ruto’s match to State House. 

Rights activist Boniface Mwangi, who in 2022 was an Azimio supporter, says that Azimio was over confident and underestimated their opponents. It failed to strategise, organise and mobilise their base and they appointed people to the secretariat for their loyalty instead of professional skills

‘‘With too many centres of power, Azimio created self-important people doing zero work; sycophants, and incompetent people in critical roles. They behaved as if we had won and failed to carry out their assigned roles diligently,” says Mwangi

Kenya Kwanza

Azimio leadership, says Mwangi, treated honest feedback with disdain and those who offered it were ostracized.

Kela Adulu, a branding and communication strategist, says that Kenya Kwanza had a better reading of the pulse of the country’s political heartbeat. “The choice of a wheelbarrow as a party symbol was work of genius. It resonated with the youth and their daily struggles and galvanised the resolve in the hustler movement.”

Whatever is said about Raila’s quest for power, it’s sad for a man who fought so valiantly for democracy in Kenya, only to face obstacles erected in his path. His journey of frustrations, however, offers great lessons on elections and campaigns in Kenya and Africa in general. 

Raila rested without tasting the presidency, but no leader in the history of Kenya, wielded as much power and influence over so many for so long. He joined his forbearers having proudly served as; the People’s President.