Trump's administrative decisions have far broader effect

Tesla and SPaceX CEO Elon Musk (L) and US President Donald Trump shake hands as they attend the men's NCAA wrestling competition at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on March 22, 2025. [AFP]

As the world navigates global economic shockwaves and geopolitical tensions, US President Donald Trump’s administration has been nothing short of turbulent waters, for both its foes and allies.

Being a global superpower, even Trump’s tiniest administrative decisions have far-reaching effects for most countries, if not all.

Barely six months since his inauguration into office as the 47th president of the United States and serving his second term, Trump in his America first form of leadership, has attracted criticism in great measure.

Travel restrictions

On June 4 this year, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing a travel ban on nationals from 12 countries and partial restrictions on seven others, effective June 9, 2025, citing national security concerns.

The proclamation states that the identified countries lack sufficient vetting and screening processes needed to detect foreign nationals who may pose safety or terrorism threats to the U.S.

The fully restricted countries are Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Partial restrictions apply to Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela, limiting certain visa categories like immigrant, tourist, and student visas.

In a video released by the White House, Trump said that on his first day in office, he directed the Secretary of State to perform a security review of "high-risk regions" to make travel restriction recommendations.

The ban has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it discriminates based on ethnicity or religion and lacks consistent criteria, pointing out that countries like Spain, with higher overstay rates, were omitted.

The African Union and some US lawmakers, like Senators Markey and Schiff, have condemned the ban, citing strained diplomatic relations and impacts on families, particularly Afghans and Haitians.

“The Commission remains concerned about the potential negative impact of such measures on people-to-people ties, education exchange, commercial engagement and the broader diplomatic relations that have been carefully nurtured over decades,” a statement by the African Union Commission read in part.

The commission appealed to Trump’s administration to exercise this right to protect their border in a manner that is balanced, evidence-based, and reflective of the long-standing partnership between the United States and Africa.

The ban, which is already starting to see retaliation from countries like Chad, will see Kenyan travelers to the US undergo increased scrutiny, given its proximity to some of the affected countries like Somalia and Sudan.

Additionally, Kenya hosts significant refugee populations from Somalia and South Sudan, and the ban may complicate its role as a regional humanitarian hub. If U.S. resettlement programs for refugees from banned countries are curtailed, Kenya could face increased pressure to manage refugee populations locally, straining resources.

Trump’s first term saw reductions in foreign aid and withdrawal from global climate agreements like the Paris Accord. A similar approach could cut U.S. support for African climate adaptation or health programs, affecting Kenya’s efforts in drought resilience and HIV/AIDS management.

Potential renegotiations of trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could disrupt African exports, including Kenya’s textile industry, which employs over 200,000 people. 

Trump-Elon tensions

The relationship between Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, once marked by close collaboration, has deteriorated into a public feud.

Tensions emerged over policy disagreements, particularly Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package. Musk criticized it as a “disgusting abomination”.

While the feud itself is a US-centric drama, its consequences for Kenya are tangible, particularly through the loss of U.S.-funded programs and potential disruptions to digital and economic initiatives.

The fallout has specific implications for Kenya, primarily tied to Musk’s actions through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and broader U.S. policy shifts under Trump’s administration.

Musk’s DOGE initiative, aimed at slashing US Federal spending, led to the cancellation of several U.S.-funded contracts in Kenya deemed “wasteful.”

Included A $10 billion (Sh1.2 trillion) primary literacy programme, which was a significant investment in Kenya’s education sector and another $439 million (Sh56.7 trillion) consulting contract for aviation advisors, affecting Kenya and neighboring countries.

These cancellations have disrupted funding for education and infrastructure, potentially stunting development projects and straining Kenya’s capacity to fill these financial gaps.

Kenya’s digital health system, which relied heavily on U.S. support for patient records, facility lists, vaccine data, and disease surveillance, was impacted by Trump’s executive order pulling U.S. funding.

Also, Potential Impact on Starlink and ICT Investments as Musk’s Starlink, a key player in providing internet connectivity, has been eyed for expansion in Kenya to boost digital infrastructure.

Trump Tariffs

On April 9, Trump imposed a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff on all imports, plus higher reciprocal rates for countries with which the US has large trade deficits. He later paused or lowered those, but kept the 10 per cent baseline tariff in place.

The Court of International Trade in New York ruled on Wednesday that Trumps reciprocal tariffs are illegal, finding that the president overstepped his authority by imposing the import levies last month.

Experts say that this ruling could throw Trump’s sweeping trade policies into disarray,

Wednesday’s ruling, if it stands, would blow a hole through Trump’s strategy to use tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners, experts say. It also creates uncertainty around trade negotiations and agreements with the European Union and China, as well as other countries.

The move to impose reciprocal tariffs on nations exporting to the US has sent shockwaves across global economies.

In the hours following the announcement of the tariffs which was done after markets closed in the US, the reactions were swift and continued to be felt right across the world.

Experts aver that with a risk of increased inflation in the US, reduced incomes, reduced disposable income, a possible recession in the offing and a simple increase in price of consumer products, the negative impact of the taxation measures will make its way through the rest of the global economy and eventually come to percolate at home here in Kenya.

The announcement by Trump on far broader and bigger tariffs, directly targets about 60 countries including massive tariffs on China and its largest trading partners.

In Japan, one of United States' top trading partners, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that the tariffs had created a "national crisis" as a plunge in banking shares set Tokyo's stock market on course for its worst week in years, Investment bank JP Morgan said it now sees a 60 per cent chance of the global economy entering recession by year end, up from 40  per cent previously.

China vowed retaliation for Trump's 54  per cent tariffs on imports from the world's No. 2 economy, as did the European Union, which faces a 20  per cent duty.

But closer home, there are concerns about taxes imposed on countries that import, value and then re-export products that originate in Kenya. Of particular concern is Switzerland, after the announcement that Swiss goods will be subject to 31% to 32% when imported into the U.S.

In 2023, Switzerland was the 2nd largest exporter of Coffee in the world, with a total export value of $3.69 billion. Switzerland is a significant coffee exporter to the US, particularly of roasted and ground coffee, and in 2023, it was the third-largest coffee exporter to the US, after Brazil and Colombia, with exports valued at $1.13 billion.

While Switzerland doesn't grow its own coffee, it has a thriving roasting industry, and imports a lot of raw dry coffee. According to the Global observatory of economic complexity, Switzerland is a major importer of Kenyan coffee, with exports of coffee to Switzerland reaching $30.5 million (Sh3.9 billion) in 2023.