Mudavadi losing grip? Ex-ANC boss faces tough times as clout wanes

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi during a past interview. [File, Standard]

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi finds himself in a precarious political position following the dissolution of his Amani National Congress (ANC) party and the entry of opposition leader Raila Odinga into framework for cooperation agreement with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Once viewed as a central pillar in the Kenya Kwanza government, Mudavadi is now facing growing scrutiny over his diminishing political leverage.

The merger of ANC with UDA, formalised in March, left most of his supporters in Western Kenya uncertain about his political future.

While the Prime CS has maintained that he remains firmly in government, his recent clarifications and denials suggest a man under pressure.

In March, shortly after the Registrar of Political Parties gazetted ANC's dissolution, Mudavadi reassured his supporters that his position remains secure and rooted in the 2022 Kenya Kwanza coalition agreement.

"Mudavadi believes in high ideals of unity and cohesion, and the move to merge his ANC party with the President's UDA party was voluntary and endorsed by party members," said a statement from his office, signed by his Director of Press Service, Jacob Ng'etich.

The statement further emphasized, "Mudavadi remains committed to his government's responsibility of diligently serving Kenyans and has absolutely no intention of joining another political outfit."

Despite his assurances, media reports have linked his allies to the formation of new outfits, including the rebranding of Umoja Summit Party (USP-K) to Democratic National Alliance (DNA), raising eyebrows among political analysts and prompting further speculation about his long-term strategy.
His political turbulence intensified when the President signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Raila's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), signaling a new era of political collaboration.

This broad-based government arrangement, while touted as a national unity effort, has disrupted traditional political alignment and appears to have ushered in anxiety in Mudavadi's camp.

"The move to merge ANC with UDA could have strengthened Mudavadi's position within the ruling coalition, but the entrance of Raila and ODM has left him politically fragmented," said Moses Ombayo, a political analyst and lawyer.

ANC's dissolution has been seen as a chance to open the door for rival parties such as Ford Kenya, led by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K), and ODM to expand their influence in Mudavadi's former strongholds, including Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.

"Ford Kenya might dominate Vihiga and Kakamega too after the unceremonious exit of ANC, and that is a worry for Mudavadi," Ombayo added.
Adding to Mudavadi's challenge is the unclear power dynamics within UDA.

While former ANC leaders have been integrated into UDA's hierarchy, such as Issa Timamy (former ANC party leader) being named Deputy Party Leader and Emuhaya MP Omboko Milemba (former ANC Secretary-General) serving as Deputy Secretary-General, Mudavadi himself lacks a personal political outfit to wield influence or bargain with in the lead-up to 2027 elections.

"Without a political party, Mudavadi has no fallback plan. In Kenya, you need a party to bargain pre and post-election deals," said Ombayo, a political observer familiar with Western Kenya's dynamics.

Some of Mudavadi's former allies, including DNA party leader Godfrey Kanoti and Dr Barack Muluka, have been pushing to revive the Western Kenya bloc under the new Umbrella party.

Their move is seen as an attempt to fill the vacuum left by ANC's exit and position the region ahead of 2027.

Complicating matters is the fate of the 30 per cent power-sharing pact negotiated between Mudavadi, Wetang'ula and Ruto's parties before the 2022 elections.

While Mudavadi secured the influential Prime Cabinet Secretary role and Wetang'ula became Speaker of the National Assembly, critics argue that the region has yet to see tangible development or appointments and the folding of ANC now relents the push for the pact's implementation by Mudavadi.

Some leaders from the Western region believe Mudavadi has less influence in Kenya Kwanza government at the expense of Raila, who now call more shots.

"Wetang'ula and Mudavadi should be the ones pushing for the pact, but as a senator, I can't keep quiet anymore. It's three years into the Kenya Kwanza government, and we are still hearing the same refrain-'we will do, we will plan,'" said Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.

Khalwale claims that Mudavadi's lack of capability to push for development for Western Kenya shows his diminishing influence in government.

He also argued that Raila's entrance into government has weakened Mudavadi's and the entire Western Kenya's position. Despite the setbacks, Mudavadi's inner circle remains cautiously optimistic.

Vihiga Woman Rep Beatrice Adagala, Mudavadi's close ally, has urged patience, emphasizing the long-term gains of the ANC/UDA deal.

While some speculate that Mudavadi is strategically positioning himself for the 2032 presidential race, others believe that his best bet lies in securing the Deputy President slot in the next election.