There is a new sheriff in Raila's Luo Nyanza

There are many aspects of the Luo nation unfamiliar to the outside world. For instance, few people know that ‘Luopeans’ are spread across seven countries south of the Sahara.

Ugandan social media personality Irene Ayaa has been doing the Lord’s work by educating millions of her followers about the Luo beyond their perceived lavish living and loyalty to Gor Mahia FC.

Also, Tom Mboya and Barack Obama have offered great examples of the community’s flair for style and eloquence. Little wonder words like ‘Jakom’ and ‘Jaber’ have become part of Kenya’s national lingo.

But perhaps nothing captures the depth of Luo identity better than its political consciousness. Raila Odinga, the community’s foremost political figure, was himself a keen student of history. He had a firm grasp of the Luo migration history up to their settlement at Got Ramogi.

For three decades, Baba was the undisputed Luo political ‘kingpin’ and de facto spokesperson. After his death, a new leader will inevitably emerge. My reading of Luo Nyanza politics is that Ugenya MP David Ochieng has good prospects for the throne even if his time may not be immediate.

He isn’t the kind of politician who waits for the winds to change before making his move. In 2019, he won the Ugenya by-election on a Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) ticket, beating ODM’s Christopher Karan. Mr Ochieng knows standing with the people is far more valuable than dining with kings. In 2022, he beat ODM’s Daniel Odhiambo like a ‘burukenge’ at the ballot.

But something more significant happened last week. Teso North MP Oku Kaunya defected from ODM to Mr Ochieng’s MDG. Butula MP Joseph Oyula followed suit. Meanwhile, we hear that more than 500 aspirants from 17 counties have expressed interest in seeking MDG tickets.

These overnight fortunes of Mr Ochieng’s party can’t be dismissed. When a behemoth like ODM loses sitting MPs to a rather fringe outfit, something historic is happening. It means the Orange party must confront the uncomfortable reality of its waning allure after Mr Odinga’s death.

The ODM brand is quaking right before our eyes. A TIFA opinion poll released on Thursday placed the Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi Movement ahead of ODM in popularity. I’m afraid that Mr Odinga’s strongholds are ebbing. The end of the road is in plain sight.

Historically, however, few alternative political formations have managed to challenge the ODM machinery in Nyanza. The late Dalmas Otieno’s Kalausi Party struggled to gain traction.

Former Rangwe lawmaker Martin Ogindo’s Green Party was equally short-lived. You will recall how former Rarieda MP Raphael Tuju challenged the Odinga-ODM political dominance only to bite the dust.

Mr Ochieng, observers say, is charting an interesting course. I foresee more aspirants gravitating towards MDG ahead of 2027. It will be the new sheriff in town. For the record, the MDG attraction isn’t an ideological revolution. It’s simply the search for a viable political vehicle outside ODM’s muddled future.

There’s another important dimension. Mr Ochieng doesn’t gloat or chest-thump. By contrast, ODM’s Mr Judas Iscariot and his team are drunk on their own egos. It’s the same cabal that let Baba and Azimio down when it mattered most in 2022. For years, they turned ODM primaries into a lucrative racket. Funnily, they have the audacity to behave as though nothing ever happened.

Finally, the tragedy for the lake region is that the succession question is no longer about who occupies Mr Odinga’s role. It’s about a serious party that can command the confidence of a community whose identity was closely intertwined with the enigma for decades.

Give it to him, Mr Ochieng understands that political space is rarely handed over on a silver platter. It’s seized by those bold enough to challenge the established order. He is now at the centre of the post-Odinga conversation and must prove his worth beyond dishing tickets to aspirants. Whether ODM’s old guard appreciates it or not, the succession issue is almost settled. Importantly, MDG should rally the region to back President William Ruto in 2027. 

-The writer is a communications practitioner.