Luo 'kingpin' Babu is skating on melting ice

ODM chief Raila Odinga’s shadow looms large over the 2027 polls. At times, you would think the man of mystery is alive and pulling strings from his Opoda Farm in Bondo. For Luo Nyanza counties of Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya and Kisumu, the bigger post-Odinga concern is voter apathy. With the enigma’s death, the motivation to vote has waned.

Yet we can’t clone Baba. New ODM leader Oburu Oginga, who claims he’s the party presidential candidate, isn’t Raila. Even the all-pervading chairperson Gladys Wanga isn’t a Raila reincarnation. 

Nyanza’s script is basically recast. Jokanyanam (descendants of the lake) have now resigned to fate and adopted an ‘I don’t care’ attitude. The acceptance that ‘whatever happens in 2027, it’s none of our business.’

This is why discussions on who becomes the next Luo kingpin (whatever that means) are laughable. Interestingly, last week, outspoken Embakasi East MP Babu Owino (Paul Ongili) topped a poll of potential kingpins. This stood out, especially in our opinion polling sector overrun by snake-oil merchants.

Could the stars be aligned for the youthful MP? In February last year, the ODM lawmaker was ranked the best‑performing legislator, alongside Kiharu’s Ndindi Nyoro, after reportedly scoring more than 70 per cent in the performance index opinion survey in the 290 constituencies. 

This time, it baffles Atieno (and Wanjiku) that anyone frank would dedicate time and resources to conduct an opinion poll on Luo leadership, a spectral political role that has no known selection or ascendancy process. Did someone accidentally play their ace too early? 

Let’s now face the facts. How did Jakom rise to the helm of Luo politics? Did opinion polls propel the former premier to that position? Did anyone elect him to it? Did elders have a say? When did the descendants of Ramogi gather to pronounce themselves on who should speak for them? 

The answers will tell you how myopic we are in assessing leadership in the broader context of political interests of this majestic Nilotic tribe. You can’t lead the Luo by virtue of infantile political behaviour, purported eloquence or the ability to polarise. For the record, Luo is a lifestyle. You lead us because of belonging, mettle and Juogi (ancestral or spiritual forces) that defy simplistic understanding.

After Mr Odinga, Luos aren’t in a hurry for anything. In any case, local voters, including Gen Zs, know the behaviours that don’t constitute a kingpin. The holder of that position can’t be one who exhibits a youth-winger mentality. Kingpins are composed leaders with an aura of maturity and gravitas.

Similarly, a spokesperson or leader of this elite tribe isn’t excited by publicity. Like Raila who attracted crowds without renting rally-goers, those aspiring to step into his shoes must be polished in language, culture and temperament. I also believe ‘kingpinship’ comes with age. The list is long.

Good enough, MP Babu can try his luck. But if I were the Embakasi East MP this early in my political career, I’d avoid tribal branding. I’d be kingpin of Kenya. As one of the most recognisable youthful lawmakers, I’d advance aspirations of young ‘tribeless’ Kenyans instead of building castles in the air.

The former university student leader, whom I voted for in the 2022 elections, should focus on strengthening youth leagues within ODM. In Parliament, he should lobby for change of nomination rules to ensure more under-35s access critical leadership positions. For youth, leadership is either now or never but it should be about the Kenyan dream, not mere tribal interests.

Meanwhile, the MP should build a legacy of substance like Raila did across regions and generations. Transformative leadership goes beyond chants of ‘tibim’ and ‘tialala’ in rallies and funerals. Importantly, patience is a key virtue in leadership. Many are wondering, does he still want to be Nairobi governor?

The ‘Luopean’ nation can’t replace an irreplaceable Raila. Nyanza either sticks with President William Ruto or joins the Kalonzo Musyoka-led opposition. But sadly, the opposition is irredeemably mired in sour grapes, leaving Dr Ruto the lone redeemer.  

-The writer is a communications practitioner.