Military on standby as Kenyans brace for Saba Saba showdown

KDF Officers in Nairobi CBD during 2024 anti-Finance Bill protests. [File, Standard] A major showdown is looming between government security apparatus and frustrated Kenyans as they prepare to mark 35 years since the inaugural Saba Saba day. The Sunday Standard has established that the government is planning to deploy Kenya's most elite military unit - the Kenya Defence Forces' Green Berets - ahead of planned Saba Saba demonstrations, in a dramatic escalation of security preparations reflecting the government's deep anxiety over intensifying dissent. The move comes at a time when public anger over economic hardship, steep taxation, corruption and lac of rule of law, which has pushed public discontent to a boiling point. Critics see the deployment of combat-trained soldiers as a stark signal of the government's readiness to suppress demonstrations with overwhelming force. Military sources confirmed to the Sunday Standard that the Green Berets were quietly recalled to Gilgil last week, joining other KDF units already placed on standby ahead of Monday's planned demonstrations. "We have been mobilised and will likely have three companies ready, at places like Kahawa Barracks," said an officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Others from Naivasha Military Camp reported receiving similar orders. "All the Green Berets have been recalled," one said. "Even those on leave or serving in other areas have been ordered back." Troops reportedly traveled on Friday night to avoid public scrutiny, arriving in Nairobi under the cover of darkness. They are now positioned at strategic locations, including Kabete and Embakasi barracks. "We have a small number of Green Berets in Kahawa. And they are not normal soldiers," said a retired KDF colonel familiar with special forces doctrine. "They're trained for war. Using them against citizens is an admission that the government is being cautious." Security planners privately admit they fear veterans of Kenya's past military campaigns, many with advanced training, could join demonstrations and provide tactical leadership. They also worry older activists will rally alongside Gen Z protestors, radicalising them further. "Deploying an elite combat unit like the Green Berets means their intelligence points to a very bad day on Monday," one senior officer involved in security planning said. The government's escalation is rooted in the trauma of last year's protests on June 25, when demonstrators stormed Parliament after MPs passed the unpopular Finance Bill. Despite deploying both police and military units, authorities were overwhelmed. State House and Parliament were barricaded with barbed wire this year during the July 25 anniversary but offices were ransacked. Images of armored vehicles on Nairobi's streets spread globally, underscoring a government in crisis. KDF officers patrol along Moi Avenue on Thursay June 27, 2024, when protesters demonstrating for the resignation of President William Ruto engaged police in a day long running battle. [File, Standard] The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) reported 19 deaths during the anniversary protests, although human rights groups suspect the real toll is higher given a surge in abductions and unreported injuries. "June was chaos," admitted one Nairobi police superintendent who requested anonymity. "We just didn't have enough boots on the ground. That's why KDF stayed on after." Activist Boniface Mwangi says that the state is creating chaos to justify the killings of its critics. "Look around: people disappearing, getting arrested, or killed for speaking up. This isn't a democracy anymore; it's control through fear. We are being ruled by snakes. You don't pet venomous snakes. You get rid of them," he says. Ruto's administration has relied on a legal framework established in a gazette notice on June 25 last year, signed by then-Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale. It authorized the KDF to support the police in restoring order, but did not specify how long the military would remain deployed - a loophole critics say enables permanent internal use of the army. That notice has never been rescinded, giving the government what some call a "standing license" for domestic deployment. Critics argue it amounts to martial law by stealth. Defence Cabinet Secretary Soipan Tuya has defended the policy, telling Parliament last August that the Constitution (Article 241(3)(b)) explicitly allows KDF support to police under exceptional circumstances. "One core mandate of the KDF is defense and protection of territorial integrity and sovereignty," she said. "The other two key functions involve internal deployment in emergencies and disasters such as the Mai Mahiu floods." "Deployment happens, and then a report is made to Parliament," she added. "Under this type of deployment, KDF is not the frontline-the frontline is other agencies." KDF troops in Goma ahead of a six-month peacekeeping mission in Northern Kivu. [File, Standard] President Ruto has adopted an increasingly confrontational stance toward protests instead of addressing their demands among them ensuring the rule of law. He has branded demonstrators "dangerous criminals" and "treasonous," even as he has deployed the military to back police in dispersing protests against his contentious finance bill. Opponents have responded by mocking him as "Zakayo," a biblical tax collector synonymous with greed - a chant now common at rallies. Ruto has even embraced the nickname, dancing to a satirical protest song at public events. "Not at all. No tribal slogans. No political chants. Just Kenyans tired and united. But unity scares this regime. They would rather divide us than face the truth," Mwangi said. At the same time, he has accused foreign actors - including the Ford Foundation and Russia- of bankrolling the protests, though he has offered no evidence. Such claims suggest an effort to frame the unrest as foreign interference rather than domestic discontent. Last month, Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen went even further, publicly ordering police to shoot anyone attacking police stations or officers. "We will not allow anarchy," Murkomen declared last week. But many police officers have pushed back privately, saying they will not execute unarmed protesters. "Our job is to maintain order, disperse crowds, arrest ringleaders," said one Nairobi inspector. "We're not going to shoot unarmed protesters because someone says so." Perhaps most troubling for many Kenyans is the parallel wave of abductions and disappearances linked to alleged state-sponsored "killer squads" operating in cooperation with the police and National Intelligence Service. According to the KNCHR, at least 82 people have been abducted since June 2024, with 29 still missing by late December. Victims describe being seized off the street by masked or plainclothes officers, blindfolded, beaten, and dumped days later in remote areas - if they reappear at all. "The goons serve a purpose to create fear and discredit protests. If people see chaos, they will stay home. That's the plan," Mwangi said. Human Rights Watch has condemned the practice, calling for transparent investigations and accountability. "Deploying military units against protesters is the definition of excessive force," said Amina, a university student who plans to march on Saba Saba. "It sends a chilling message that the government sees its own citizens as enemies." Human rights organizations argue the state is grossly overstepping its authority. "Protest is not a crime," Human Rights Watch said in a statement. "Security forces must uphold human rights, not trample them." Police vehicles along Outer Ring Road in Pipeline Estate during violent antigovernment protest that saw locals and police engage in push and pull on July 23,2024. [File, Standard] Security sources say Monday's Saba Saba operation will be tightly choreographed. Police will focus on crowd control and arrests. The Green Berets will serve as a rapid-reaction force, positioned discreetly but ready to secure key installations like State House, Parliament, police armories, and other critical infrastructure. "They won't be parading in the streets," explained one security planner. "But they'll be close enough to move in fast if things collapse." Meanwhile, civil society groups have vowed to march despite the intimidation. Veterans' associations activists have signaled they may join in solidarity with younger protestors, raising the specter of more organized, disciplined demonstrations. Police commanders admit they are bracing for chaos. "That day we were overwhelmed," said a senior Nairobi officer, recalling June's violence. "If veterans really show up and lead this time, it's going to be much harder to control." A test for Kenya's democracy Kenya's 2010 Constitution was crafted to constrain military involvement in civilian life, demanding clear conditions and parliamentary oversight. Analysts warn that frequent deployments risk normalizing military policing and eroding the democratic gains of the last two decades. "This is a test of our democracy," said Karuti Kamau, a protester preparing to mark the anniversary on July 7. "If every big protest ends with soldiers in the streets, then we're no longer a democracy. We're a military state in all but name." Our efforts to reach the government were unsuccessful. The Kenya Defence Forces' communications team requested that we write an email with the questions so that they could respond. By the time of going to the press KDF had not responded. The police spokesperson did not respond to our calls or respond to text messages. Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura was also unresponsive to our calls.

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