Forget the hype, so Jubilee was under-prepared?

 

President Uhuru Kenyatta (centre) flanked by his Deputy William Ruto (right) and Jubilee Head of Secretariat Raphael Tuju ,address journalists at State House,Nairobi. The President apologised to the JP members following the cancellation of all its primaries that had already started countrywide.PHOTO/Elvis Ogina (Nairobi) April 22nd,2017

If it hadn’t happened, it would have been impossible to imagine that a party that had planned so meticulously to succeed could miss the mark so spectacularly. Indeed, party officials had boasted of a well-oiled nomination machine.

And while a few glitches were expected, no one anticipated that Jubilee’s house of cards would tumble to the ground in such a remarkable fashion. I mean really, it was an epic fail. Not even comparable to the chaotic nominations on the other side of the aisle.

The NASA parties had set the standard for a shambolic nominations process but then Jubilee came along and lowered the bar significantly. It’s laughable really that after weeks of posturing, the final outcome was so dismal. So dismal that the President himself was forced to apologise, even though the apology came with a qualification.

It was not that they were not prepared, he said. They were “under-prepared” and that “under-preparedness” was due to a lack of foresight. Nobody in the Jubilee Party anticipated such a massive voter turnout. While they had prepared for about 30 per cent of registered voters to pitch up, come nomination day voter turnout was as high as 80 per cent in some places. Those figures, the President said, were only comparable to a general election.

Doubting Thomas

And so we must come to the conclusion that when faced with conditions that could only be compared to a general election, the Jubilee Party (JP) was woefully under-prepared. Luckily, it is the job of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to conduct general elections. We can only hope that the IEBC is better prepared.

As the JP nominations continue today and tomorrow, it might be prudent for the commission to keep a keen eye on proceedings, given that what we’re seeing could be a foreshadowing of the election to come.

Call me a cynic, but the false start to the JP nominations was curiously methodical. Like dominoes, county after county fell, and eventually the entire process came to a very organised halt. Secretary General Raphael Tuju announced the cancellation and the President apologised.

By way of apology Uhuru made it clear to the country, and to the Opposition, that JP supporters would turn out in massive numbers come Election Day. He made repeated reference to the historic and unprecedented turnout, and was deliberate when he made the co-relation between his primaries and the general election.

A few hours later Mr Tuju gave details of the new nomination dates. Details of the new dates were simultaneously available on the JP website. Suddenly, the machine that had stalled mid-process was up and running with amazing efficiency. Yes, it could have been that the party’s PR machine kicked in and its officials went into damage-control overdrive.

But it could also be that the botched nomination process served as a mock general election, giving JP a pretty good idea of the number of voters who are likely to turn up to support the party come August 8. If we are to believe the JP narrative, then the false start should also send a clear message to the Opposition that in the game of numbers, JP cannot be discounted.

More than that, Uhuru has now placed his deputy, William Ruto, in charge of the party primaries going forward; a development that has caused great unease among a cross-section of aspirants, for reasons well-known but largely unspoken.

At the end of the day, noxious nominations and all, one man might bear the full brunt of the fallout – and that man is Secretary General Raphael Tuju. If this was an action movie Tuju would be the token black man who is eliminated shortly after the credits roll. It didn’t take long for aspirants to start baying for his blood when it became evident that the primaries had come a cropper.

His cannot be an easy position to be in and only time will tell if the token mheshimiwa from Rarieda will make it to the next scene. There is a pretty good chance that he will have to exit stage left. And if things are as thick as they seem to be at Jubilee headquarters, with conflicting interests going head-to-head, a Tuju resignation may not be the worst thing that could happen.

Ms Masiga is Peace and Security Editor at The Conversation Africa