Poll predicts Uhuru win in run-off

By FELIX OLICK

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would be the biggest beneficiary if either Eldoret North MP William Ruto or Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka does not make it to the run-off vote.

A new survey indicates Uhuru would beat other presidential hopefuls including Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the political turf of both Ruto and Kalonzo.

According to the survey by Ipsos Synovate, 58 per cent of those supporting Ruto for the top job would shift their backing to Uhuru while Raila would take only eight per cent.

Raila has been on a charm offensive in the Rift Valley to galvanise support especially after it emerged Ruto was not keen on running for the presidency but become Uhuru’s running mate.

The survey conducted between November 10 and 16 this year among 2,000 respondents also indicates Uhuru would get 23 per cent of the votes enjoyed by Kalonzo while Raila gets 15 per cent if Kalonzo doesn’t make it to the run-off.

United Democratic Front (UDF) presidential aspirant Musalia Mudavadi on the other hand would inherit 12 per cent of Ruto’s support and 13 per cent of Kalonzo’s.

Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Kalonzo would both enjoy 5 per cent each from Ruto’s support.

The opinion polls also forecast that Uhuru would beat Raila in a run-off vote if the polls were held today.

The survey indicates that Uhuru would win the second round by 46 per cent against Raila’s 42 per cent.

But in a run off pitying Raila and Mudavadi, Raila would triumph by only one per cent. The survey shows that Raila would beat Mudavadi by 42 per cent against Mudavadi’s 41 per cent.

However, Mudavadi would beat Kalonzo by 47 per cent against Kalonzo’s 31 per cent.

The PM however remains the man to beat in the first round with a popularity rating of 33 per cent against Uhuru’s 26 per cent.

Ruto comes third at 9 per cent in the popularity ratings, Kalonzo 8 per cent and Mudavadi 4 per cent.

However, Ipsos Synovate Socio Political Analyst Tom Wolf maintained the main political uncertainties are the choice of running mate and the yet to be finalised political alliances.

“These are just individual popularity ratings. A lot is likely to change after December 4 when political parties deposit pre-election agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties. The choice of running mate is also key,” noted Dr Wolf.

atanga MP Peter Kenneth, who launched his presidential bid in pomp and colour early this month, increased in the ratings by passing Narc Kenya Party leader Martha Karua and Wamalwa.

Kenneth’s popularity increased to 3 per cent up from one per cent in September.

The major gainers over the past two months, according to the survey, are Ruto, Kalonzo and Kenneth. Raila, Uhuru and Mudavadi were the biggest losers with the Gatundu legislator losing 4 per cent while both Raila and Musalia lost 3 per cent each.