Report: Africa's aircraft fleet to more than double by 2045 on rising air travel demand

Europe remains the largest international passenger market for flights to and from Africa and is forecast to remain so through 2045. [iStockphoto]

Africa’s young, increasingly urban population, growing middle class, and improving infrastructure will drive passenger traffic to grow nearly six per cent annually through 2045, one of the fastest rates globally.

This is according to Boeing, the global aerospace company and top US exporter, in its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for Africa released last week in Nairobi.

The report says the region’s commercial aeroplane fleet will more than double from 755 to 1,625 over the next 20 years to support this demand, as projected in Boeing’s report.

Of the nearly 1,200 newly delivered aeroplanes expected by 2045, 870 will be single‑aisle jets to support expanding domestic and regional networks.

Demand for wide-body aeroplanes, Boeing says, will more than double, supporting fleet modernisation and long‑haul network growth.

Boeing also forecasts that the cargo fleet will grow from 60 to 150 freighters as the continent’s logistics, e‑commerce and high‑value export markets develop.

Intra‑African passenger traffic is expected to grow at a faster pace than the regional average, enabled by better flight connections.

Europe remains the largest international passenger market for flights to and from Africa and is forecast to remain so through 2045.

This is driven by expanding economic ties, enduring cultural and family connections, and rising tourism investment.

“Africa’s aviation market is entering a period of sustained growth driven by improving connectivity, expanding intraregional travel and deeper economic ties across the continent and with key global markets. Meeting this demand will require a broader commitment to fleet modernisation, expanded capacity, digital solutions and workforce development," said Shahab Matin, Boeing managing director of commercial marketing.

"The opportunity extends well beyond airplanes. It will require investment in affordable access, and the people who will support a larger fleet."

The expansion of Africa’s aviation ecosystem  will create growing demand for services and skilled personnel through 2045.

Boeing’s report forecasts a $140 billion (Sh18.1 trillion) market for maintenance, repair, overhaul and modifications (MRO), and digital solutions.

Its Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that as airlines grow their fleets and expand route networks, they will need 75,000 new aviation professionals - 22,000 pilots, 25,000 technicians and 28,000 cabin crew.

Africa’s aviation industry is fast-growing, with passenger air traffic gains averaging 5.8 per cent annually through 2045, and the fleet more than doubling.

Single-aisle aeroplanes account for nearly 75 per cent of new deliveries supporting domestic, intra-African and short-haul international connectivity to Eurasia and the Middle East.

Its widebody fleet will more than double by 2045, reflecting growth in African hubs and intercontinental networks.

Africa's  commercial jet fleet is forecast to grow 3.9 per cent annually and more than double over the next two decades.

This fleet expansion, the report says, will drive a growing requirement for aviation services including aeroplane maintenance, training and investment in digital capabilities.

Africa will need an average of 3,750 new skilled aviation personnel per year over the next two decades.

The Boeing Commercial Market Outlook is an annual forecast published since 1961 that provides 20‑year demand projections for aeroplanes and services worldwide.

Boeing develops, manufactures and services commercial aeroplanes, defence products and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries.

 The US and global workforce and supplier base drive innovation, economic opportunity, sustainability and community impact.

 Boeing has been a committed partner to African airlines and aviation institutions for over seven decades, supporting safe, reliable and sustainable growth across the continent.