Kalonzo Musyoka at a crossroads: Fight in opposition or join Ruto?

Is Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka determined to put up a fight within the opposition, or is he quietly contemplating teaming up with President William Ruto ahead of next year’s elections?

Does the political climate in Ukambani give Kalonzo the luxury of gambling with his place in the country’s power matrix as realignments unfold swiftly and the clock ticks towards next year’s polls?

These questions demand a serious interrogation of recent political developments in Kalonzo’s backyard, the Lower Eastern region, where a new political force has emerged comprising former Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama, former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko and Labour Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua.

Even as the trio claims to push for unity, some leaders are reading mischief, warning that they are agents of bigger forces scheming against Kalonzo and the opposition.

Kalonzo has been freezing in the opposition trenches for nearly two decades, since his days as Vice President under President Mwai Kibaki. He now faces another defining moment, perhaps his last opportunity to actualise his presidential dream.

On one hand, Kalonzo’s loyalists in Ukambani have unreservedly urged him to go for nothing but the presidency next year, even though that could threaten opposition unity against Ruto. His supporters also cite the numerous sacrifices he made by rallying behind the late opposition chief Raila Odinga’s presidential bids in 2013, 2017 and 2022.

On the other, Muthama, Mutua and Sonko have suddenly emerged with what appears to be an aggressive campaign to unite the Akamba community and rally it behind Kalonzo. Political unease has been mounting in Ukambani since news broke in Nairobi early this week of a closed-door meeting between the three.

The meeting was followed by cryptic social media posts that exposed deep-seated ideological contradictions, leaving the Ukambani electorate confused about Kalonzo’s next move.

The developments come as Kalonzo is under excessive pressure to choose between what promises to be a fierce opposition battle and Ruto’s political courtship. They underline an acute dilemma for a leader who has little time to flip-flop.

Although Kalonzo and his lieutenants have fiercely denied the claims, his night meeting with Muthama about a month ago raised eyebrows among his political allies in Ukambani and within opposition ranks.

The speculation escalated after Muthama, in his usual ambiguous rhetoric, responded to critics of the meeting.

“I met Kalonzo because he is my brother and it is usual for brothers to speak to each other. Those who are spreading rumors about the motive of our meeting should know that what is coming will shock them,” Muthama was quoted as saying.

Muthama’s former arch-rival, Mutua, has now unexpectedly realigned, fuelling further speculation. In an interview with The Sunday Standard, Mutua appeared to embrace the Akamba unity discourse mooted by Muthama and Sonko, terming it a good starting point for the community.

“We should take care of the (Akamba) community. We cannot wallow in poverty because of uncompromising politics. We start everything and end everything with the community first,” Dr Mutua said.

According to a source within the Wiper circle, Kalonzo is open to either working with Ruto or proceeding with the opposition, provided he is picked as the presidential flag bearer.

“He (Kalonzo) cannot divulge that publicly at the moment. His commitment to the opposition is firm but he is still open to forging a union with Ruto. The party leader is keenly studying the political dynamics to avoid repeating the previous mistakes,” the source told The Sunday Standard.

“As a matter of fact, Ruto is currently implementing tangible development infrastructure in Ukambani. That way, Kalonzo will not find it hard to convince his political constituency about the rationale for forming a pre-election pact with Ruto.”

On the flip side, observers are questioning whether the Muthama-led Akamba unity talks signal a quiet rebellion against Kalonzo’s grip on the region, a transactional effort to secure bargaining power for 2027, or merely a temporary truce among historic rivals seeking self-preservation in an increasingly fluid national landscape.

Muthama’s involvement with Kalonzo is not new. He is famed for crafting high-stakes alliances. After the disputed 2007 elections, he was among the key negotiators who brokered a pact with then President Kibaki.

He told The Sunday Standard that the proposed talks will focus on a non-partisan effort to restore the region’s historic leadership.

“We must work together for the sake of the community. We hope to talk about these things when I host the community and all political leaders at the ‘Komarock 3’ meeting that we will very soon convene,” Muthama stated.

Backed into a corner over the calculated timing of his unity initiative, Muthama deployed classic legacy leverage. He framed the summit not as a political manoeuvre but as an urgent bid to revive the regional power and community-first statecraft pioneered by Machakos titans, the late Paul Ngei and the late Mulu Mutisya.

“My intent is to restore the political ideologies of the community’s political fathers, the late Paul Ngei and the late Mulu Mutisya, who championed the interests of our people. In politics, there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies. In politics, one year is like one day, and one day is like one year. Nothing is impossible with prayers and goodwill.”

Amplifying Muthama’s narrative, Sonko issued a clarion call for aggressive identity politics. He insisted that the Akamba bloc can no longer afford to play second fiddle or accept political and economic breadcrumbs, and that the community must flex its collective voting power at the national negotiating table.

In a recent media interview, Sonko told Kalonzo he would be better off deputising Ruto if he fails to secure the opposition presidential ticket.

“This is his last bullet. If the opposition does not give him the opportunity to be the presidential flag bearer, he should not gable any more. He would be better off becoming Ruto’s deputy or even Prime Cabinet Secretary,” said Sonko.

However, to give Kalonzo adequate power for such a bargain, Sonko prescribed the need for ‘compact unity’ of the Kamba nation.

“We need to make our own ‘mlima’ [Mt. Kenya region] in Ukambani. Other communities have despised us for a long time. They are used to misusing our community as a rubber stamp,” he said.

He questioned the wisdom of the community languishing in the opposition trenches for two decades while other communities that chose to work with the government secured development in their regions.

The development has generated hope and doubt in equal measure among Kalonzo’s loyalists and his perceived political opponents in the region.

Former Kitui East MP Kiema Kilonzo, who is considered an ally of Kalonzo, welcomed the initiative on condition that it propels Kalonzo to the presidency.

“The initiative is good to the extent that they are coming where the Akamba people are. They have been on Ruto’s side but the Akamba people decided long ago to follow Kalonzo and so are the majority of Kenyans,” Kilonzo said in an interview with The Sunday Standard.

The former legislator noted that ‘the train had left the station’ and that the three leaders had nothing to negotiate with the presumed sixth president of Kenya.

“We know there are Ruto hardliners who will not rhyme with the mood of the community but we will crush them politically because the region has gone blue (Wiper),” he said.

However, The Sunday Standard has established that a section of Wiper hardliners were actively blocking the unity talks in what is seen as an attempt to protect their own political turf.

Despite the rhetoric of unity, Wiper stalwarts stand accused of riding on Kalonzo’s wave for electoral survival while leaving their principal stuck in the opposition ranks.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi scoffed at the consensus-building move, alleging State House manipulation.

“The region is 100 percent united for Kalonzo. Only a few leaders feel they are not part of the larger community. If they want a meeting, they should first declare that they are out of the government because we are not seeking to collaborate with Ruto but to defeat him on the ballot,” Mwangangi said.

Former Machakos Town MP Victor Munyaka and former Labour Chief Administrative Secretary Musyoka Kalla, who also sits in the Wiper National Executive Council (NEC), similarly dismissed the initiative as a Trojan horse.

“That is an elaborate scheme to deliver Kalonzo to the government. The community already has a candidate in Kalonzo. We can only support the proposed convention if the agenda is to support Kalonzo’s presidential candidature,” Dr Munyaka stated.

He went on: “It could be a strategy to kill the Wiper party. If they are serious, we challenge them to first denounce their loyalty to Ruto and pledge their allegiance to Kalonzo.”

The pushback is not exclusive to the opposition. President Ruto’s inner guard of youthful Ukambani legislators, led by Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya, Mwengi Mutuse and Nimrod Mbai, has publicly distanced itself from the veteran alliance.

Dismissing Muthama as a classic double agent, the MPs accuse the trio of putting on a theatrical show of relevance purely to hijack State House access and protect their fading fortunes.

Kawaya openly questioned Muthama’s allegiances and rejected lukewarm politics.

“This question has to be answered practically. It is either you are affiliated to Kalonzo or Ruto. We do not want lukewarm politics. I would welcome the meeting if the agenda is strictly aimed at redeeming the community,” Kawaya said.

He went on: “There is no other discussion that surpasses roads, water, markets, and other empowerment initiatives that are already being undertaken by the President. For us, we will not enter into a discussion if the agenda is not clearly to uplift our people.”

With time running out on his ultimate prize, the Wiper leader is backed into a high-stakes corner. As the opposition’s fight for the top ticket turns ugly, he is down to two brutal choices: sell out to Ruto for a guaranteed seat at the dining table, or roll the dice in the freezing cold of opposition politics against his rivals.