The next presidential election will be won by a mile

The next presidential election will be won by a mile. Nothing like a closely fought election. Nothing like it a tight contest.

The incumbent, President William Ruto, is left with only one main task: To confirm or replace his Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. He has no competitor from within his party. He is not worried about establishing party structures across the country. The focus is to convince Kenyans that he has delivered his promises and ask for the social contract with the voters to be renewed. In plain words, the incumbent is asking for a favourable assessment to continue ruling for another term.

The Opposition has some homework to do. First, nominate one of them as flagbearer. So far, this has not happened. But there is a blessing in disguise in the delay.

Besides keeping the incumbent guessing, one Edwin Sifuna  has emerged as a top flagbearer contender. Egos aside, this makes it easier for the Opposition to decide what pair they are fronting.

Second, as it stands among opposition voters, Mr Sifuna has passed a minimum national threshold of vying for the presidency if assessed by turnout in rallies organised by the Sifuna team and the mentions of his name in allied opposition rallies. 

Of course, there are many debates on various platforms that lean towards this conclusion. A few surveys have been conducted showing Sifuna topping the opposition charts, although most of these remain indicative.

My reading of the Opposition strategy is that the leading contenders know very well that anything minus uniting behind their pair will allow the incumbent to beat them by a mile. No doubt.

Should they hang together and survive the onslaught of being divided, they will present an assailable lead against the incumbent. I don’t see two ways about this.

Three months ago, I would not have imagined projecting this possibility. Now, it is clear like day and night that the winner of next year’s presidential election, be it the incumbent or the Opposition, will be home and dry with enough votes and enough seats to be in office comfortably.

Yes, I know very well that one day in politics can change everything. Barring unusual factors such as an extended El Niño till October next year, a massive earthquake or a Covid-20, God forbid, the political lines are marked.

The incumbent will throw everything at the Opposition, particularly to make sure they speak in tongues. He will want to scatter them so they remain disjointed, incoherent, and constantly chasing shadows. He has the resources for a gruelling campaign. He has the levers of power. Besides, he has the political experience. That is what an able incumbent does.

Should the Opposition rally behind Sifuna, I don’t see how they will not politically destroy the political narratives coming from the incumbent.

Sifuna brings two unique advantages to the Opposition table. He has won the hearts of many young people. Somehow, he symbolises their dreams.

The second unique factor in favour of a Sifuna presidential candidacy is that Kenyans love political spectacle. And we have not missed a bit of this. Sifuna draws parallels with Barack Obama. Young, articulate, intelligent, consistent and very promising as a leader. To flavour the Kenyan political drama, Sifuna presents an Obama-moment.

I believe Kenyan politics is more exciting than the English Premier League. The thousands of analysts in every corner of the country, the hundreds of bloggers digging in for their candidates, and the mainstream debates will be ‘fire’ for the next ten months.

The multiplication of the Bunge la Mwananchi (citizen parliaments in open spaces) is already boiling with deep political analyses. Listening to them, it becomes evident that the Kenyan voter is well informed.

My only concern, regardless of which political divide batters the other, is this ugly thing called violence. I don’t understand how a normal adult endowed with resources pays other human beings to cause violence.

We cannot play with the peace we are enjoying. We are overstretching the hunger for power. Whatever happens, we must keep peace.