Oburu's early endorsement of Ruto weakens ODM's bargaining power, say analysts

ODM leader Oburu Oginga during funds drive at Chiga Catholic Church in Homa Bay Town constituency on July 12, 2026. [James Omoro, Standard]

Political analysts say ODM leader Oburu Oginga’s declaration to support President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election was premature.

Last Sunday, Oburu declared that the ODM party will not field a presidential candidate but will instead support President William Ruto’s re-election.

Dr Oburu made the announcement during a fundraising drive at Chiga Catholic Church in Homa Bay Town Constituency.

This came at a time when ODM leaders were urging their supporters to wait for the party leader to show them the political direction.

But political analysts opine that the declaration was made at an inappropriate time.

University of Nairobi lecturer Prof Herman Manyora said Oburu ought to have withheld the decision until a few months before the election.

Prof Manyora said the ODM leader should have engaged supporters before making the announcement.

“It is premature for Oburu to announce to the public that they will not field a presidential candidate. Former ODM leader Raila Odinga used to seek the views of the people even if he had already made a decision. He ought to have waited,” he said.

He argued that the declaration could compromise ODM’s bargaining power during negotiations for a pre-election deal with President Ruto.

A section of ODM officials has said they are still engaging in further negotiations with Ruto on their pre-election coalition. But Prof. Manyora said it is impractical to negotiate power-sharing effectively when ODM has already decided to support Ruto.

“The reality is that those people are not negotiating for anything constructive. They have already agreed, and that is why ODM members are traversing the country to support Ruto,” he said.

Political strategist Dr Barrack Muluka argued that ODM is likely to lose out in negotiations for power-sharing with President Ruto’s UDA.

Dr Muluka said political negotiations would favour ODM only if there was a credible threat.

“People undertake political negotiations because there is a threat. By accepting to support Ruto, Oburu has done away with the threat. He has lowered ODM’s stakes in the negotiations,” he said.

Oburu’s declaration has come at a time when the Mt Kenya region, where President Ruto garnered the largest number of votes in the 2022 General Election, appears to be pulling away.

The outcome of the Ol Kalou by-election could be a pointer to Mt Kenya’s resolve to turn its back on Ruto.

This follows the landslide victory of DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho, who garnered 35,440 votes against UDA’s Samuel Muchina Nyaga, who came second with 5,450 votes.

The big question Kenyans are asking is whether Oburu’s ODM will replace the Mt Kenya votes in the 2027 polls.

Muluka said filling the electoral vacuum will depend on Oburu’s influence in consolidating votes in ODM strongholds.

However, with the split in the ODM party, which has led to the emergence of the Linda Ground faction led by Oburu and the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, ODM may not marshal enough votes to give Ruto an edge in the election.

“If it was the traditional ODM, Ruto would have been sure of getting a good number of votes from ODM strongholds. But the current ODM that supports him looks like a Luo Nyanza affair,” Muluka said.

However, lawyer John Apollo argued that Oburu’s declaration was informed by the existing working relationship and cooperation under the broad-based arrangement.

Apollo argued that ODM’s declaration may be intended to consolidate political goodwill and strengthen the existing partnership with the Kenya Kwanza government.

“ODM’s declaration has come a little early, considering that the 2027 General Election is still many months away. This has resulted from the cordial relationship Ruto has with top ODM leaders, which has led to development projects in Nyanza,” Apollo said.

He argued that publicly committing support before negotiations are concluded may reduce ODM's bargaining power, but it could also be a strategy to secure government appointments and policy influence if President Ruto wins the election.

However, Apollo opined that ODM's endorsement alone will not guarantee President Ruto victory, but it significantly strengthens his electoral arithmetic.

“If support from parts of the Mt Kenya region fails to back Ruto, consolidating votes from Nyanza, Western and other supportive regions becomes strategically significant,” he added.