Ruto forced back to the drawing board after Ol Kalou defeat

DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho won the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

After suffering a crushing defeat at the hands of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) in the just-concluded Ol Kalou by-election, President William Ruto will be forced to go back to the drawing board for his re-election strategy.

Some analysts have advised him to take advantage of the High Court ruling on June 30 that ordered him to  reconstitute the Cabinet within 120 days after finding that its current composition violates the Constitution's two-thirds gender principle to reorganise his government.

 That means firing the Cabinet Secretaries and other high-profile government officials from Mt Kenya region and replacing them with those from pro-government allied areas.

On Friday, the ruling UDA party Secretary General Hassan Omar gave a subtle warning to Mt Kenya region and reminded them that the government’s investment in Mt Kenya was based on the region’s strong support for Ruto during the 2022 presidential election and the party’s commitment to an inclusive government.

“UDA invested heavily because an election is a heavy investment. UDA invested heavily because we wanted to demonstrate that we do not exclude anyone,” Omar said.

He added that the region played a significant role in President Ruto’s rise to power and that the government had responded through increased representation in senior state positions.

“UDA invested heavily because the president acknowledges Mt Kenya. West and East supported him immensely in his bid for presidency,” Omar said.

According to Omar, the Kenya Kwanza administration has appointed many leaders from the Mt Kenya region to key government positions, including Cabinet, Principal Secretary roles, state corporations and parastatal leadership.

“In reciprocity, the president has assigned over 10 Cabinet Secretaries to the region. The bulk of the Permanent Secretaries in this government are from the region called Mt Kenya. About 17 or 18 of the 51 are from Mt Kenya. The bulk of chairs of state corporations are from Mt Kenya. The bulk of CEOs in this government are from Mt Kenya,” he said.

His remarks have been interpreted to mean that now that the region seems to have broken ranks with the President, it might not continue enjoying State appointments.

Despite spending heavily in Ol Kalou, in what Gachagua claims amounted to Sh1.2 billion of handouts, Ruto’s UDA only managed a paltry 5,000 votes.

After the humiliating defeat, Suna East MP Junet Mohamed and his ODM party leader Oburu Odinga, both members of Ruto’s broad based government, urged the president to channel the campaign handouts such as mattresses, cooking gas, and boats and government development projects to the Nyanza region instead.

Nyandarua Senator John Methu and Ol Kalou MP-elect Sammy Ngotho during the by-election on July 16,2026. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Political commentator Mutahi Ngunyi and Constitutional Lawyer, Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi believe it is high time the President lets go of the mountain and court other regions for his reelection bid.

According to Ngunyi, the result of the Olkalou by-election was a testament that Ruto had lost grip in Mt Kenya region, saying he needed to plan his re-election without considering the region.

“Dear Ruto. No point courting Kikuyus. You have tried. They have rejected you. Ol Kalau is the testament. Turn to the Luo Nation and Mulembe Nation. Ol Kalau is a pain point for you. Or was it an experiment to justify discarding Kikuyus? Just do it! 9 Kikuyu ministers? fire them,’ he said.

 On his part, Abdullahi opined that it was evident that if Ruto would stick with Deputy President as his running mate, he would not attract any significant votes in the voter-rich region.

“Stick with Prof Kithure Kindiki and believe the false narrative that you will get 40% of the Mt Kenya vote and know that a humiliating defeat is certain. Or act the political fox you always have been, pick a Luo or a Luhya running mate (preferably the latter) and hit the road running. The choices are clear. And President Ruto must smell the coffee...by force,” he said.

According to the lawyer, it was obvious that the UDA candidate would be beaten by Gachagua’s candidate and their aim was to reduce the gap to validate the propaganda that Ruto still retained significant support in Mt Kenya region, a strategy he said did not work.

“Now that the dust has settled, the postmortem by political pathologists gives a dire prognosis of the dismal performance of UDA. 13% of the vote was an awful return for the billions spent and the false promises so recklessly made to the voters. “Of course, the divorce between President Ruto and the Kikuyu community provided the background melody in UDA's calamitous showing in Ol Kalou. Many other factors played significant roles in the horror show too,’ he noted.

On his part, lawyer Ndegwa Njiru maintains that Ruto mistook the support he got from Mt Kenya region in the 2022 general election, saying he was voted in due to the Raila Odinga phobia that had been propagated in the region.

“Ruto seems to have misunderstood the Mt Kenya electorate completely. Here's the plot twist: many Kikuyus didn't vote for you in 2022 because they were your biggest fans. They voted for you because, at the time, they couldn't imagine voting for Raila. Now?

“The political honeymoon is over. Next year will be another reminder that borrowed support isn't the same as genuine loyalty. Turns out, confusing "the better option at the time" with "we love you" was quite the miscalculation,” he said.

Kindiki, who was confident that the by-election provided grounds to embarrass Gachagua, has now seen a road to Damascus and believes the outcome provided grounds for going back to the drawing board.

Kindiki, who has offlate turned into a tweeting Deputy President, wrote, ‘Back to the drawing board... A good time to reengineer the game altogether.”

While reacting to the Olkalou defeat, Ruto, who enjoyed massive support from Mt Kenya region in 2022 characterised by enthusiastic crowds, warm receptions, and an unwavering belief that he was the leader best placed to champion the region's interests dismissed DCP’s win, saying there was life after elections.

"There will be Kenya after the election, and we must live together as brothers and sisters of one nation," he said on Friday during a meeting with grassroots leaders from Bungoma County at State House.

 But political analyst Martin Andati said the loss by the President must have concerned him more since he lost considerable support that saw his Presidential ambitions come true.

 “The mountain shifted and what was remaining was a confirmation. It's an indication that people are not happy with the President. UDA will be concerned about what is happening in Mt Kenya West since it has more numbers than the East and also influences how the East votes in the Presidential election,” he said.

Ruto’s allies in the Mt Kenya region have signaled a major political announcement in the coming days as a strategy for their political relevance.

Led by Mathira MP Eric Wa Mumbi, the leaders said they were considering their next political move following a resounding loss in Olkalou by election.

 “With my colleagues who are here and others who are not here, governors, senators, Members of Parliament and Members of County Assemblies from this region, we are going to make a major political decision,” Wamumbi said.

In an interview with Sunday Standard, Wa Mumbi said he will be engaged in a series of grassroots meetings with the Mathira electorate starting next week.

“I will be focusing on my electorate from next week. I believe that Mathira is not Olkalou and that the people of Olkalou have reasons why they decided not to vote for a UDA candidate but I will be engaging them,” he said.

The Sunday Standard has learnt that other strategies that are in the offing by the government include reaching out to some rivals who are not entrenched in Gachagua’s camp, such as Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, Governors Irungu Kangata (Muranga) and Kimani Wamatangi (Kiambu), among others.

“There is also a plan to have Ruto’s allies register a political party that they will use to seek their re-election while drumming support for Ruto with the hope of getting at least one million votes,” a source said.

On Friday, Gachagua claimed he was aware of schemes by the President to register ‘wheelbarrow’ parties that will be sympathetic to Ruto and vowed to unmask the parties at the right time.