DP question: Kindiki's loud voice in mini poll leaves Ruto agonising

President William Ruto and his deputy Kithure Kindiki during the 22nd National Prayer Breakfast at Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, on May 28, 2025. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

The hotly contested by-elections that concluded last month are considered by many to have given a critical indicator of where the country could be headed politically.

The 2027 General Election is less than two years away and, as this year comes to an end, political activities can only heighten in preparation of yet another major exercise as both the broad-based government and united opposition flex their muscles.

Amid the by-election, majority of Kenyans were waiting to see whether Deputy President Kindiki Kithure would deliver or he would lose against garrulous former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua who has been attempting to stamp authority in the Mt Kenya political base.

After the gruelling and incredibly intense campaigns, Prof Kindiki said the winners assumed the crucial role of rallying communities to unite for the collective good and heavy lifting to expedite the development agenda of their respective constituents.

“To those who did not win, you are still leaders in your own right, and your ideas and input are still required in shaping the future of our country,” Kindiki said after the by-elections.

Political Analyst Dennis Anyoka says the by-election has provided lessons, both for Government and the united opposition.

For the opposition, he says, they were not only able to test the waters but also to showcase their muscles, with good lessons to pick.

Although it is still early, one of the emerging issues is the task that awaits President William Ruto as he mulls picking a running mate for the next General Election, whether he would maintain the incumbent or look the broad-based way.

According to Anyoka, it was not an easy political process even for the President and, while it may be a bumpy ride for him in Mt Kenya regions, he is also not certain about the Nyanza region.

“Ruto is not certain on Nyanza region whether he will get support or not. There’s a divided on whether  the people should remain in the broad-based arrangement post 2027 or have their own alliance to form government. We have strong voices in ODM who disagree,” he Anyoka said.

By the time the country gets to 2027, Anyoka says a lot will have happened in as far as picking the running mate is concerned.

“Even if the position of Deputy President was to be given to Nyanza, the President has to be almost guaranteed it is capable of galvanizing the votes and should be a replacement of what Mt Kenya brought to the table, which is not only a difficult thing but a serious gamble,” Anyoka argues.

“Given an opportunity, I would advise him (Ruto) to maintain Kindiki because he would prove friendship, loyalty and demonstrate he is not just the DP. There is the challenge of promising more than you can offer. He has to figure out that if he was to leave out Mt Kenya, there will be a chance that the people will feel shut out completely,” Anyoka opines.

Dismas Mokua, another political analyst, argues that President Ruto is a pragmatic, seasoned and realist politician who has demonstrated capacity for taking prudent decisions that have resulted in many electoral wins despite turbulence.

According to Mokua, ⁠President Ruto’s 2027 running mate will be a politician who will substantially increase his probability of winning while at the same time not appearing as the heir apparent because his political party and coalition will be heavy with 2032 presidential candidates.

“President Ruto will do scenario and sensitivity analysis and name a running mate based on facts and figures while immunizing the decision from emotional considerations. ⁠The probability does exist that Ruto will form a Pentagon-like structure as a strategy to manage 2032 presidential candidates’ expectations,” Mokua argues.

At the same time, he says, President Ruto’s decision could be informed by political party, ethnic and coalition formations as well as policy successes during his first term. The running mate choice is likely to be a sensitive issue to the united opposition’s presidential candidate and running mate.

He also says that the President’s running mate choice will be a key variable in the 2032 consideration and could potentially cost him a second term. Powerful politicians and personalities like former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka Moses Wetangula and Ida Odinga, among others interests and aspirations will also influence the running mate choice, Mokua says.

“The Mbeere North win merely maintains the status quo and may not necessarily inform the running mate choice,” he notes.

But Barrack Muluka, also an analyst, says it remains extremely early to say who will run noting that between now and a time like this next year, a lot of things are going to have happened, which determine who runs and who becomes whose running mate.

“We are going to hold everything constant and society and social behaviour does not function that way. We don’t know who will be there. We make certain assumptions on the basis that everything would hold constant… nothing is going to hold constant, there are going to be so many changes on the landscape,” Dr Muluka told The Standard yesterday.

“We don’t even know who will represent Kenya Kwanza. Sometimes we assume that this will be their candidate for Kenya Kwanza and we get there and find it’s a completely different person, we even assume the opposition will be this way but we find it’s completely different,” Muluka said.

According to Muluka, by-elections do not, in any significant way, foreshadow what will happen.

“It may be impossible to mobilize those MPs. Each one of them will be fighting for his own survival. It is too soon to know who will run and who will be suitable for who,” Muluka said.

As this happens, ODM, a key broad-based government partner, could also be seeking a stake in Ruto’s administration, coming against the backdrop that party leader Oburu Oginga pointed to the possibility of extending the party’s political arrangement with the President beyond 2027.

Claims have also emerged that the party could be eyeing the Deputy President’s slot to guarantee Ruto’s support in the next General Elections.

Already, Oburu has indicated that the Luo community will not join any political alliances blindly, recalling that the community has been betrayed politically despite being faithful to allies.

“We have always been faithful and trusted our political allies, but we have always been betrayed. We are now wise,” Oburu said.