Why president's political future hangs in the balance

President William Ruto addresses residents after the launch of the Sogoo-Melelo-Ololung’a Road in his tour of Narok County, May 7, 2025. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Ruto’s political future hangs in the balance and this is why

The 2027 general election has taken centre stage in shaping the national conversation. The challenges bedevilling Kenya, such as the high cost of living, rising prices of essentials like unga, punitive taxes, ballooning public debt and unemployment, define the mood among ordinary folks, particularly those aligned with the Opposition. Within government circles, confidence that President William Ruto will secure a second term in next year’s general election is sky-high.

The 2022 duel between Dr Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga was bare-knuckle from start to finish. It ended at the Supreme Court, which handed Ruto the victory. Written off, Ruto fought tooth and nail, and still walked into State House as Kenya’s fifth president; a comeback that cemented his name as the country’s most shrewd and strategic political operator. Ruto has never experienced defeat in his 33 years of active politics.

The President is no political novice. He is soft-spoken yet firm, bold and sensitive. He is a shrewd and adaptable strategist with a measured mission. On the international stage, he projects Pan-African ideals, giving eloquent speeches to the admiration of global leaders. Ruto is articulate, consistent, and ready to show the world that he understands the global challenges facing the 21st century.

However, 2027 unfolds against a backdrop of mounting domestic challenges. The current opposition, led by figures such as the former Vice President, former Deputy President, and former CSs, continues to highlight the mess the country is in through nationwide mobilisation. Alongside them, a vocal ODM faction, led by the Nairobi Senator, Siaya Governor, and Embakasi East legislator, has revived grassroots political activism, particularly among Gen Z.

The ODM dissidents, distinct from the pro-government wing, have drawn large crowds and injected new energy into opposition politics, similar to that of the late Raila. Their growing presence across Western Kenya, parts of Mt Kenya, Rift Valley, and the Coast signals shifting ground. If they align with the broader opposition, they could form a formidable political force. It remains to be seen how their influence will impact the Luo Nyanza region, which is the bedrock of the ODM party and currently gravitating towards incumbent Ruto.

Ruto is vulnerable mainly due to economic realities in the country. In 2022, he campaigned on a “bottom-up” empowerment agenda, but many Kenyans argue that his tax regime has placed a heavy burden on the very citizens he promised to uplift. The central question remains whether he exaggerated the promises as many Kenyans continue to struggle with the high cost of living, limited opportunities, and corruption.

Ruto’s development record has also come under focus, especially on projects that are often relaunched without visible progress, creating an impression of PR based on repetition rather than delivery. For instance, the government promised to set up a university in Nyamira County in August 2024. Locals expected to see a structure erected two years down the road. However, the President recently laid a foundation stone for its construction during a tour of the Gusii region.

The political fallout following the removal of Rigathi Gachagua as deputy president has added another layer of complexity for the President. It is in the public domain that Gachagua’s sustained mobilisation in Mt Kenya, a region critical to Ruto’s 2022 victory, poses a direct challenge to his quest for a second term. An erosion of the votes garnered in 2022 in Mt Kenya could significantly alter the electoral equation.

The Mt Kenya region backed Ruto in 2022 mainly for economic renewal. However, growing hardships have led some voters to question whether that promise has been fulfilled. Gachagua’s narrative of betrayal by the current president has gained traction, and the region’s political mood appears unpredictable as the next election approaches.

The Church, which played a pivotal role in Ruto’s rise, has also shown signs of distancing itself. Concerns over governance, internal conflicts, and the handling of Gen Z protests have contributed to a cooling relationship. This is what Rev Theresia Wairimu of Faith Evangelist Ministries echoed in 2024: “Until now, I have always thought that this government is a government of God because it is the one we voted for, but to our embarrassment, it is a government of fights.” A significant portion of the Church has drifted from Ruto.

At the same time, youthful political activism is resurging. Leaders like Babu Owino, Caleb Amisi, Antony Kibagendi and Sifuna are tapping into the energy of the Gen Z movement, amplifying calls for accountability and reform. If this momentum converges with the broader opposition led by Kalonzo and his group, it could reshape the political landscape come 2027.

If Ruto wants a second term, he must address the punitive taxes, the Social Health Authority debacle, and governance challenges. Kenyans have not forgotten the State’s heavy hand on Gen Z protesters. They are not asking for miracles but a straight answer from the President and assurance that it will not happen again.

At the same time, economic hardships and governance concerns have created fertile ground for mobilisation by the Opposition. Despite this dissatisfaction, without a single candidate, their chances of beating Ruto will be minimal. Kenyan elections are not won on regional enthusiasm alone. Victory requires a broad national coalition spanning Rift Valley, Coast, Nyanza, Northern Kenya, Western, and Mt Kenya. This demands strategy, discipline, persuasive messaging and unity of purpose.

Ruto, for his part, retains significant advantages. Incumbency, organisational strength, loyalty networks, and political resilience remain firmly in his fold. His ability to reward loyalty and maintain grassroots structures continues to underpin his campaign machinery. Support from allies and initiatives associated with the First Lady’s empowerment of women, such as table banking and prayer groups, reinforces his base.

The key challenge is convincing Kenyans that a second term will deliver tangible results. Lowering the cost of living, easing the tax burden, and creating jobs remain critical expectations. Allegations of nepotism, recycling the old guard into government roles, and unequal opportunity further complicate matters.