Emurua Dikirr: Why UDA, rivals should assess poll with caution

Emurua Dikirr MP-elect David Kipsang Keter celebrates after winning the by-election on May 14, 2026. [Peter Kipkemoi, Standard]

The election of David Kipsang Keter as the new Member of Parliament for Emurua Dikirr has triggered fresh political debate over the future of President William Ruto’s influence in the Rift Valley ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Keter, a businessman running on the UDA ticket, won Thursday’s poll after several unsuccessful attempts to capture the seat, garnering 18,266 votes to defeat his closest challenger, Vincent Kibet Rotich of the Democratic Change Party (DCP), who secured 10,760 votes.

While UDA leaders celebrated the outcome as proof that the ruling party still commands loyalty in one of its traditional strongholds, political analysts argue that the by-election results reveal a far more complicated political reality beneath the surface.

At the centre of the debate is the strong performance of Rigathi Gachagua’s party candidate, Rotich, whose more than 10,000 votes — nearly 35 per cent of the total ballots cast — surprised many observers in a constituency widely regarded as a UDA stronghold.

Gachagua’s allies see the outcome as early evidence that the anti-Ruto wave associated with the “Wantam” movement may be slowly penetrating the Rift Valley beyond its Mt Kenya base. Gachagua, who is on a UK tour, congratulated Rotich and the campaign team for what he described as a “splendid performance”. 

In a statement issued shortly after the results were announced, the former Deputy President said the performance was “no mean feat.”

He claimed that the results had transformed DCP into “a key player in Rift Valley politics” and portrayed the outcome as evidence of growing resistance against the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“My brother Vincent Rotich, for all practical purposes, you are the hero of the day,” Gachagua stated, adding that Rotich would be “the candidate to beat” in the General Election.

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala termed Rotich’s performance as a bold statement that the South Rift is ripe for change. 

But in Kenya Kwanza circles, the outcome is a confirmation that President Ruto’s party was still strong in his backyard.

“But beneath the cheers and roadside excitement, the people had already written their answer in silence. And today, the ballot box read it aloud.” said Belgut MP Nelson Koech.

UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar claimed it has affirmed it’s position. “UDA competes everywhere, UDA wins everywhere and in consultation and partnership with our coalition partners in ODM we will therefore want to dedicate this victory to part of them,” he said.

According to some leaders, parliamentary contests in Emurua Dikirr have traditionally been influenced more by local grievances, personalities and party affiliations than by national presidential loyalties.

Narok Deputy Governor Tamalinye Koech argued that by-elections often provide voters with an opportunity to express temporary frustrations without fundamentally altering long-term presidential loyalties.

A closer examination of Emurua Dikirr’s political history presents a more nuanced interpretation than the narrative advanced by both critics and supporters in the aftermath of the vote. Unlike many constituencies in the Rift Valley, it has historically demonstrated an independent streak in parliamentary elections while maintaining alignment with the broader presidential direction of the Kalenjin political establishment.

In 2013, voters elected an MP through the little-known Kenya National Congress party even as the region overwhelmingly backed Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto under the United Republican Party.

The same pattern repeated itself in 2017 when residents elected a KANU legislator despite the Jubilee Party wave sweeping across the Rift Valley. Yet in both elections, the constituency still voted overwhelmingly for President Uhuru Kenyatta.

It is this historical voting behavior that UDA strategists are now citing to dismiss claims that the DCP performance signals the collapse of President Ruto’s grip on the region.

Even so, the by-election has undeniably injected fresh energy into the growing political rivalry between Ruto and Gachagua, with both camps increasingly treating every electoral contest as a symbolic battle for political supremacy ahead of 2027.