Is Ruto trying to win Kalonzo or split his Ukambani support base?

President William Ruto launches the Sh1.36 billion Kyambeke–Ukia Road project in Kaiti, Makueni County, on October 24, 2026. [Stephen Nzioka, Standard]

President William Ruto’s visit to Ukambani has stirred fresh speculation about his political intentions ahead of the 2027 General Election, after he publicly praised Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, raising questions about whether he is seeking an ally or attempting to weaken the opposition in its stronghold.

On the first day of his tour, Ruto portrayed Kalonzo as an opposition leader who recognises his administration’s development record, unlike others he accused of refusing to acknowledge government achievements.

“There are two people in Kenya whom God is using: Kalonzo and myself,” Ruto said, adding that while God was helping him do the work, He was helping Kalonzo “make announcements”.

“At least Kalonzo is honest. As for the others, even if you were to build a road all the way to their doorstep, they would still claim that you haven’t built any road,” he added.

But Kalonzo swiftly rejected any suggestion that the remarks signalled political alignment.

“I am your rival,” he declared during a Thanksgiving Service at the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Kamikau, Tharaka Ward, describing Ruto’s remarks as his most honest admission in four years.

Kalonzo dismissed the President’s claims about development, saying he remained determined to remove him from office and describing his administration as a “predatory regime”.

The exchange has put Ukambani, where Kalonzo commands considerable political influence, at the centre of competing strategies as leaders position themselves for the next election.

Political risk scholar Dismas Mokua views Ruto’s three-day tour as part of a broader grassroots campaign aimed at expanding his support beyond traditional strongholds.

“President Ruto’s praises around Kalonzo are meant to move and influence perceptions in Kalonzo’s stronghold in favour of President Ruto,” Mokua said.

He argues that the President may not necessarily need Kalonzo’s formal endorsement, but could instead be seeking to win over voters who have traditionally supported the Wiper leader.

“President Ruto’s intention is to slice Kalonzo’s vote,” he said, adding that the President’s 2027 strategy includes consolidating support in his strongholds while making inroads into those of political rivals.

Writer and literary scholar Dr Abenea Ndago, however, believes Ruto could also be opening the door to negotiations.

“It would be in President Ruto’s best interest for Mr Kalonzo to be on his side,” Ndago said, adding that the President’s reference to roads could be a political overture intended to encourage Kalonzo to consider joining the government.

“You can’t rule this out; Kenyan politics is about negotiations,” he said.

The debate comes weeks after Kalonzo held a private meeting with Johnston Muthama at a home in Lavington on October 1. Muthama has previously been involved in political negotiations surrounding Kalonzo and opposition alliances.

However, there is no publicly established evidence that the meeting concerned a possible 2027 alliance with Ruto or a plan to support his re-election.

President William Ruto in Mwingi Central during his Ukambani tour. [Philip Muasya, Standard]

Ndago says a political deal cannot be ruled out, citing Kalonzo’s history of making consequential decisions late in an electoral cycle.

Mokua, however, considers a pre-election agreement unlikely.

“The probability of a pre-election Ruto/Kalonzo political deal where Kalonzo supports President Ruto’s second-term agenda is almost zero,” he said.

He nevertheless allows for the possibility of a post-election coalition based on parliamentary strength if Ruto secures another term.

The uncertainty surrounding Kalonzo’s next move is unfolding alongside questions about coordination within the opposition.

On October 20, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and leaders associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement met former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri. Kalonzo was absent, prompting questions about whether opposition leaders were consulting through competing channels.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya defended the meeting, saying it was part of wider consultations.

“Talking to Gachagua does not mean we are against Kalonzo nor Matiang’i,” he said, referring also to former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

Ndago said the absence of Kalonzo and Matiang’i raised questions about coordination, suggesting that the meeting could expose possible cracks within the opposition.

Mokua identifies disagreements over leadership and political ambitions as significant obstacles to a united opposition ticket. He considers Kalonzo and Matiang’i among the leading contenders for the presidential nomination.

For Kalonzo, the challenge is to protect his influence in Ukambani while demonstrating that acknowledging aspects of the government’s development record does not amount to supporting Ruto’s re-election.

Mokua argues that Ruto could use Kalonzo’s remarks about development to influence perceptions among his supporters, potentially reinforcing accusations that the Wiper leader is attempting to maintain ties with opposing political camps.

“The watermelon branding is real but not irreversible. He can make it irrelevant by action. Words are not sufficient,” Mokua said.

Kalonzo’s firm declaration that he is Ruto’s rival appears intended to counter that perception. However, he must also navigate his presidential ambitions and the need to maintain relationships with other opposition leaders.

Ndago cautions that predicting Kalonzo’s eventual position remains difficult.

“There are no political assurances when it comes to Kalonzo Musyoka,” he said.

For now, there is no confirmed deal between the two leaders. Ruto’s praise could be an attempt to win support in Ukambani, an opening for future negotiations or both. Kalonzo, meanwhile, insists he remains in the opposition.

With the 2027 election approaching, the decisive question is whether the exchange will change political loyalties in Ukambani and whether opposition leaders can reconcile their individual ambitions to mount a united challenge.