Mbadi: 2024 protests still dragging down Kenya's economy

Treasury CS John Mbadi. [File, Standard]

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi now admits the 2024 anti-government protests continue to drag down Kenya's economy and complicate negotiations with international lenders.

Speaking on Tuesday, January 3, Mbadi said a single day of economic disruption from demonstrations requires three months  of recovery time, a reality he claims to have only understood after taking office.

"One day, when you close this economy, one day, it takes three months to come out of one day's disruption of economic activities," Mbadi told a gathering.

The Treasury chief said the 2024 protests, which saw major highways blocked and businesses shuttered for days, still reflect in current economic figures presented to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

"We are still feeling the effects of 2024. Today, it is still reflected in my figures," said Mbadi, a former opposition lawmaker who participated in similar demonstrations before joining President William Ruto's administration.

He revealed the disruptions have forced him into difficult conversations with the World Bank over Kenya's debt sustainability projections.

"Today, I am struggling with the World Bank to justify and demonstrate that our debt sustainability is still within limits because they don't see the economic projection," Mbadi noted.

International lenders project Kenya will need three years to fully recover from the protest-related disruptions, a timeline Mbadi disputes.

"They're saying, there was a lot of interruption, and for this to pick up, they are projecting three years. I'm telling them, no, it is just a few months," he explained.

The admission comes as Kenya's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.7 per cent in 2024 from 5.7 per cent in 2023, marking the weakest result in seven years, barring 2020's pandemic-induced contraction.

The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) estimated June 25, 2024, protests alone cost the economy Sh3 billion through lost sales, missed opportunities and infrastructure damage, while the Nairobi County government lost approximately Sh6 million in daily parking levies.

The business lobby warned the disruptions reduced economic activity, raised prices of basic goods and deterred foreign investors due to negative international media coverage.

Formal job creation dropped to 78,600 in 2024 from 123,000 in 2023, while overall jobs created fell to 782,300 from 848,200 the previous year, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The June 2024 demonstrations erupted after lawmakers passed the controversial Finance Bill 2024, which proposed tax increases on everyday items, including bread, menstrual health products, motor vehicles and mobile money transfers.

On June 25, 2024, protesters stormed Parliament buildings after MPs passed the bill, leading to clashes with police that resulted in at least 22 deaths and numerous injuries.

President Ruto withdrew the bill two days later.

Human Rights Watch reported at least 60 young protesters lost their lives in June 2024 alone, with most victims under 30 years old.

The protests were largely organised by Gen Z Kenyans through social media platforms including X, TikTok and Instagram, with no formal leadership structure.

A total of 65 people died in clashes with police since June 17, 2024, including 50 in the first two weeks, and at least 500 others were injured.

Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen announced in July that 1,500 Kenyans had been arrested in connection with the protests and faced charges of terrorism, murder, robbery with violence, arson, property damage and sexual assault.

Amnesty International reported in November that authorities systematically deployed technology-facilitated violence between June 2024 and July 2025 to suppress Gen Z-led protests, including online threats, intimidating comments, abusive language and targeted disinformation.

Mbadi, who previously helped organise opposition protests under former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's leadership, said he now understands the economic cost of such actions.

"In fact, when we used to close the roads in Nairobi and say, all Mondays, holiday. Maandamano, Tuesday. I remember Baba said, Tuesday, Tuesday. I didn't know the damage that was causing," he observed, using Odinga's political nickname.

Despite his newfound perspective, Mbadi stopped short of opposing future demonstrations, calling instead for alternative methods of public dissent that do not cripple economic activity.

"Even if we don't agree with the government, I think we must look for ways of picketing in this country. That does not mean I am now against peoplepicketing," he said.