Agricultural sector records lowest growth

Tea production declined by 2.8 per cent over the third quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2024. [File, Standard]

The agriculture sector grew at a sluggish 3.2 per cent over the third quarter of 2025, the slowest growth rate for the largest sector of Kenya’s economy in nearly three years.  The sector, which contributed 22.5 per cent to Kenya’s economy in 2024, was affected by erratic weather and rising costs of inputs over the July-September quarter, eroding the fast-paced growth over the first and second quarters of the year. 

The sector expanded by six per cent over the first quarter, but growth slowed down to 4.4 per cent in the second quarter. The growth was also slower compared to a four per cent growth recorded in a similar quarter in 2024.

Major crops reported declining production, which, however, could not be offset by a massive 36 per cent growth in the export of cut flowers.

“The sector recorded a growth of 3.2 per cent in the quarter under review, compared to a four per cent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024,” said the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) in a report on economic performance over the third quarter. 

“During the quarter under review, there was a decline in the exports of coffee, vegetables and fruits.” According to KNBS, coffee exports fell 53 per cent to 8,312.7  tonnes over the third quarter in 2025 from 17,732.8 tonnes over a similar period in 2024. Vegetable exports fell 19 per cent to 16,617 tonnes from 20,480.9 tonnes in 2024.

Fruit exports also declined by five per cent. Tea production declined by 2.8 per cent, and sugarcane deliveries for production dropped nearly 47 per cent over the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2024. The sector’s performance was despite the government’s fertiliser subsidy programme, which was expected to help improve production levels among smallholder farmers.

A 3.2 per cent growth is the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2022, when the sector registered a contraction of 1.7 per cent. The year was particularly harsh for the sector owing to a prolonged dry spell, resulting in a negative 1.6 per cent growth rate for the whole year. It, however, rebounded in subsequent years, growing at 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.6 per cent in 2024.

The sector started 2025 on a strong footing following a good March–May long rains season that supported the sector to a growth of six per cent and further 4.4 per cent in the second half. 

There was however, erratic rains in the third quarter, resulting in the slowed growth of 3.2 per cent. Performance over the fourth quarter to December 2025 is projected to have worsened following the failure of the October – December short rains season. There are concerns that poor rains over the short rains season and the suppressed performance by the sector have placed Kenya in a dire situation, with food prices expected to start going up.