Of Vision 2060: Can Ruto build Kenya's future amid a trail of failed projects?

Construction of the Rironi-Mau Summit highway. [File, Standard]

President William Ruto stood before the nation last week and invited Kenyans to what he called "the most consequential national conversation since the adoption of our Constitution in 2010".

The President unveiled his plan for his proposed Vision 2060 and argued that while the former national development blueprint Vision 2030 had set the goal of making Kenya an upper-middle-income country by that year, the country largely remains off track. "So far, we are off target," he said. "This is not a criticism of Vision 2030, nor is it a reason for disappointment".

But as the President sought to steer Kenyans towards a new national development charter to succeed Vision 2030, analysts say the legacy of abandoned projects by his embattled young administration casts a dark shadow over his government's ability to plan long-term and conduct effective feasibility studies.

Analysts and a review of his government’s development agenda show the Ruto government has forked out tens of billions of shillings in termination penalties on cancelled infrastructure projects over the past three years, with economists warning that his administration's pattern of arbitrarily scrapping mega-deals and adopting new ones mid-implementation is loading an already overstretched taxpayer with costs that deliver nothing in return.

Taxpayers paid Sh6.2 billion to a French consortium to cancel the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit toll road. They forked out another Sh7.3 billion from the Road Maintenance Levy Fund—money meant for road repairs—to settle the same termination.

The Modogashe-Habasweini-Samatar/Rhamu-Mandera road cancellation cost Sh4.09 billion. The Airport Greenfield Terminal debacle ended with an Sh8.9 billion settlement. Legal fees from the collapsed Adani-JKIA deal alone hit Sh243 million—nearly 20 times the original budget.

And those are just the bills already paid.

In an interview with the Standard, University of Nairobi economist Professor Samwel Nyandemo faulted the government's handling of public infrastructure contracts, pointing to a systemic failure in project planning and oversight.

Countries like Singapore, South Korea, and the Netherlands which President Ruto wants his Government to emulate are known for their long-term infrastructure planning and rarely pay billions in cancellation penalties. Professor Nyandemo questioned what Kenya could learn from their project appraisal and contract design systems.

"Firstly, cancellation of huge mega projects is not only a culture of financial indiscipline but also an indication of lack of poor feasibility studies and a sure avenue of soliciting kickbacks," said Nyandemo.

"This ultimately portrays a picture of either poor long-term planning and outright waste of public resource, and along gestation period of executing development programmes thus sluggish development," he added.

Auditor-General Nancy Gathungu's reports paint a damning picture of the scale of waste. In the 2023/24 financial year alone, 33 counties had 248 stalled projects worth over Sh20 billion. Kenya Defence Forces projects worth Sh22 billion have stalled after contractors abandoned them, with Sh3.2 billion of public funds already spent.

The Auditor-General revealed that between the financial year 2020/2021 and 2023/2024, the government paid commitment fees totalling Sh6.569 billion on undrawn loan amounts. In the 2023/24 financial year, out of Sh515.11 billion allocated to projects, Sh304.4 billion—59 per cent—remained unused.

Economists warn that the pattern of cancellations and re-awards—often at higher costs to new contractors—is unsustainable for an economy already straining under debt service obligations and aspiring for a grand future as the President has alluded.

"Kenya does not suffer from a shortage of vision," said Ian Njoroge, an independent economist. "The real question before us is this: How do we execute better?"

The Project Management Institute estimates Kenya is losing more than Sh600 billion in stalled and mismanaged public projects—equivalent to about 5 per cent of GDP.

"Every shilling sunk into a non-functional project is likely a shilling borrowed, often at a high interest rate, that fails to yield the economic or social return it was meant to provide," the Institute of Economic Affairs noted in its August 2025 analysis.

The IEA warned that behind each stalled project lies "a double tragedy: first, the fiscal burden it places on today's taxpayers and future generations; second, the denial of vital services such as schools, health facilities, water supply systems that citizens were promised and desperately need".

As Kenya pursues a Sh5 trillion infrastructure agenda under the Ruto administration analysts are raising questions on whether the country can afford to keep cancelling.

"The sunken billions, paid for projects that never broke ground or stalled mid-construction, are a reminder that poor planning and weak oversight carry a price tag that cash-strapped taxpayers ultimately bear," said Njoroge.

The Auditor-General has consistently called for stronger oversight. In her 2023/24 report, Gathungu noted that 22 project loans lacked documentation to confirm that public participation had been conducted.

Among the most outrageous cases is the Mombasa Bridge project, for which donors provided Sh49 billion in 2019 but only 2 percent of the funds were spent. The Kapchorwa-Swam-Kitale-Eldoret Road, scheduled for completion last year, has attracted a contractor claim of Sh318.6 million in interest charges caused by project delays.

Perhaps the most costly scandal involves the Arror, Kimwarer and Itare dams. Auditor-General Gathungu flagged loans for the three stalled dams, noting her office could not verify repayment terms or confirm if the loans were lawfully terminated. Under new agreements signed in June 2024, Kenya will now pay more than Sh31.47 billion for dams that remain incomplete. The Itare dam was abandoned after just 25 percent progress, and no work has been done on Arror and Kimwarer sites.

Originally, the projects were to be funded through Italian government-backed financing, but the deals shifted to costlier commercial loans. Before restructuring, Kenyans were to pay Sh62 billion for the aborted dams following contract termination. Former Public Service CS Justin Muturi recently revealed he refused to endorse the dam deals, stating: "The country has lost more than Sh38 billion. I couldn't append my signature as attorney general".

Analysts have also highlighted the emergence of a new class of "settlement entrepreneurs"—political and business elites who treat claims against the government as opportunities to cash in.

The scheme works simply. It works when a poorly conceived project is allowed to drag on for years without financing materialising. The project collapses. The developer sues. The government opts for a backroom settlement. Billions are paid out for a project that never left the drawing board.

For an economy where debt servicing will consume Sh1.5 trillion of the proposed Sh4.8 trillion budget for 2026/27, every cancellation penalty represents a direct hit to essential services, economists say.

Kenya's public debt reached Sh12.82 trillion by March 2026, up 9 per cent from Sh11.8 trillion in June 2025.

Kenya's pattern of paying billions for cancelled contracts is not new. The Kibaki administration was blighted by the Anglo-Leasing scandal, a procurement scandal involving passport printing systems and forensic laboratories, where the government lost Sh6.8 billion. The Greenfield Terminal project at JKIA—originally budgeted at Sh56 billion—was abruptly terminated in 2016, with contractors eventually receiving Sh8.9 billion in settlement. The contractors had initially demanded Sh17.6 billion.

The Arror and Kimwarer dams scandal has seen companies try to recover Sh12.9 billion in damages for contract cancellations. The Spanish contractor Ibensa was awarded Sh4.8 billion after another project collapsed. And state-owned power transmission company Ketraco now faces a Sh4.5 billion payout to a Spanish contractor over an abandoned power line project.

The tension between the President's lofty vision and the ground reality of his administration's execution record captures the stakes behind the August 12 launch, analysts warned.

The President himself acknowledged the gap in his address. He said: "National development must never be left to chance or short-term politics. It must be guided by a shared national vision that endures beyond administrations and election cycles".

But for millions of Kenyans watching the billions sink into cancelled projects and stalled contracts, the question is not what the next vision will say—but whether this government, or any government, can be trusted to build it.