Ol Kalou and the behavioural economics goldmine

Ol Kalou residents receive goodies before the by-elections. [File, Standard]

Last week, we focused on Ol Kalou and explained why its by-election was so hotly contested. It even distracted us from the World Cup.  We explained the domino theory and why the ghosts of Vietnam haunted this constituency. The results are now out. The winner was widely expected. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) credibility also won the day. 

The key to winning was “connecting” with the heart and soul of the voters. That is the power of music. It hypnotised the voters just as religion did in the 2022 polls. The music was well-selected, themed on the history of this region and connected to colonialism and liberation. The winner is young and bearded. What image does that connote?  Why did one of the campaigners call his home “Mugumo,” the fig tree? 

Two surprises: one is, why did the Jubilee candidate get only 198 votes? Does it say anything about party leadership and its future? Two, is why the only female contestant, Rachael Wangui Njoroge, got only 11 votes. Someone should have more than 11 friends, relatives or even neighbours! Is she a carpetbagger, unknown to anyone in Ol Kalou?

The winning was about who had a better strategy. More importantly, it is whether that strategy can be replicated elsewhere and in 2027.  Why did the contestants, Dr William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua, use “proxies” in the campaign? This strategy had unintended consequences:  it has destroyed and built the proxies. You know them.

My interest in Ol Kalou goes beyond politics; it rhymes with my interest in behavioural economics. The by-election and similar events are our free experiments on how to change or influence voters or better human behaviour. 

It’s not different from marketing and advertising. How do you make consumers shift from one brand to another? Why do we buy what we buy? How did you convince someone to marry you?  Are we that rational or logical? Let’s get intellectual dividends, not just entertainment from Ol Kalou and such events.

Ol Kalou was a contest of logic and emotions. Why would all the goodies from mattresses to gas cookers, cooking oil, flour, money and projects like roads and railway fail to sway the voters?

The voters argued emotionally and logically; it was their money, either from taxes or stolen from them. That raised emotions: remember Finance Bill protests and corruption? They argued, and they got what was rightly theirs!

Linking that by-election to the death of an MP was also emotional. Some also suggest Ol Kalou was a sympathy vote for Gachagua’s impeachment.

But the freebies had a negative effect, against logic; voters felt demeaned. Which home didn’t have mattresses, cookers, food or clothes? They asked. The voters want a fishing rod, not fish.

Voters want jobs and economic growth. And they have learnt the behaviour of politicians; it becomes “better” towards the polls. Politicians are rational and use minimal resources to win an election.

The big lesson from freebies is that there can be “too much of a good thing. ”Too much sugar makes tea “tasteless.”  Incentives, inducements, or even gifts can be overwhelming to receivers. Over Sh10 billion to one constituency was overwhelming to voters. They asked how and why now?

Personally, I do not think Sh10 billion was poured into Ol Kalou. That money would pay school fees for about 189,000 students per year at Sh53,000 per student. 

The efficient market hypothesis was at work in Ol Kalou; you can’t cheat the market, including the political market. Any information is easily available and circulated. Information is losing power; it’s too much available like water.

That is why appealing to emotions is working. The campaign in Ol Kalou shows that the crackdown on social media shifted politics to “live: campaigning. It was found to be effective.

What next?

We have time to test the domino theory as we head towards 2027. Will more contestants shift to the new DCP? It seems we love new parties like new diapers. One wishes they were like nappies, reusable and cheaper. Kenya is a graveyard of political parties.  How will UDA slow down DCP?  Kenyan politics is getting Americanised, dominated by two parties or coalitions. Who knew there were nine contestants in Ol Kalou?

Ol Kalou opened the race to the 2027 polls. It is going to be a long and politically bruising.  With voters rejecting money, many politicians will have sleepless nights. What will they “sell” to voters in 2027? How will they make them emotional, either happy or angry? Psychologists, behavioural economists, comedians, and liars have work cut out for them in 2027.

The key underlying reason for the loss of UDA in Ol Kalou is economics.

In the run-up to the 2022 elections, the party preached a bottom-up economic model and uplifting the hustler. The hustlers have not felt it. As 2027 approaches, many voters will ask if their economic lives have improved. Voting takes a day; economic transformation takes years; that is the hard reality our politicians must face.