Fertiliser, seed subsidies up maize yields but not enough

The gently rolling plateaus of Kenya’s food basket are brimming with promising plantations of maize slowly maturing, even as farmers call for more interventions in the country’s push for food security.

Across Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Narok, Bungoma and Nakuru, among other key maize-growing counties, pleasant farmers are anticipating a bumper harvest.

Many of the large-scale farmers, as well as the peasants, are admiring the crop as the harvesting beckons. For a nation where maize is a staple food, a number of indicators in the vast arable farms point to a record harvest in the next one year.

By March this year, the projections of increased production in Kenya this year were out. Six months later, maize farmers are confirming that the quantities of maize harvested this season are expected to shatter production records.

Kenya’s maize production is projected to reach 4.4 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 financial year, marking a 15.8 per cent increase from the previous season’s 3.8 million tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest Grain and Feed Annual report released on March 19, 2025. 

The Ministry of Agriculture’s projections corroborate the US’s study. According to farmers, the government’s subsidised fertiliser and enhanced access to the input have triggered an unmatched maize production. At Joseph Terer’s 80-acre farm in Kaboi, Turbo sub-county in Uasin Gishu County, there is no doubt about higher yields this year.

For many farmers, the attention has shifted to the post-harvest management and prices, with fears of the return of exploitative middlemen being a serious concern.

When Terer makes comparisons with the 2024 season and the previous years, the differences in the health of the crop are clear - the crop is taller and has produced more cobs compared to previous years.

His Kaboi farm is producing maize for the second season this year. He is buoyant as he plans to increase the acreage next season. “The crop is encouraging, and from the look, the harvest will be much higher, if not double. There is a big difference between last year and this year,” Terer says at the farm.

Last season, he produced 26 bags (90kg) per acre, which he considers a good harvest. “Last year, the crop produced a single-cob but this season, the entire farm has double and triple-cob maize, which is an indicator of an increase in production,” says Terer.

 “I am projecting yields of 32–35 90kg bags per acre, going by the crop’s health.”

“There were many teething problems last year, which were solved this season. It is one of the head of state’s major achievements in the three years in office. The quality of fertiliser was questionable, and distribution to stores near the farms was not achieved. But things were different this year; the subsidised fertiliser was of a better quality and the weather was favourable,” the maize farmer says.

This season’s maize seed, Terer says, was adequate and might have been of the right quality.

“I planted the 6213 variety of maize from Kenya Seed Company, and I am impressed by the crop’s health. The government got it right on the seed and fertiliser. The only area that requires government control is on herbicides and fuel prices during cultivation,” he says.

To weed out middlemen who strike during the onset of harvest seasons, Terer urges the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) to open its depots for maize purchase from October.

“There is also a need for more maize driers and price controls. A minimum price of Sh3,700 per bag will enable the farmer to increase production. The fertiliser and seed subsidies have shown how food production incentives can do magic in feeding a nation,” Terer adds.

Like other farms in the region, Ken Kili’s farm in Soy is also getting ready for higher yields this season. Kili says fertiliser reached the stores months before the planting season. He says many farmers planted early since there were no queues at NCPB stores, which were established in every sub-county.

“As we speak, farmers have received their subsidised fertiliser vouchers for the short rains season (September to December) and the 2026 planting season,” says Kili. The large-scale farmer says information flow on the availability of fertiliser and seed helped many farmers to collect their inputs on time.

“The Kenya Meteorological Department gave the correct weather forecasts while the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation sent customised messages to farmers, a move that built the capacity of the farmers. The media was proactive in informing farmers on the availability and unavailability of input, especially the seed and fertiliser,” Kili says.

He says an insurance plan will help cushion them against the vagaries of the weather.

According to the USDA report, the anticipated increase in maize production is attributed to a 9.5 per cent expansion in the acreages dedicated to maize cultivation, increasing to 2.3 million hectares, which is 200,000 hectares more than last year.

The report forecasts a six per cent rise in maize consumption, reaching 4.4 million tonnes in 2025/2026, aligning with the expected production volume.

“This equilibrium suggests that Kenya could achieve self-sufficiency in maize for the first time in several years, reducing reliance on imports,” the report indicates.

Despite the positive outlook for maize, the report indicates a projected 5.6 per cent decline in wheat production, dropping to 280,000 tonnes.

Uasin Gishu farmers and a professional lobby group say the Agricultural Finance Corporation (AFC) should be empowered to offer low-interest loans for inputs, machinery, and land acquisition.

The group says an intensified oversight can eliminate maize cartels and unfair importation, which they say can hurt the sector and reverse the gains.

“The AFC still operates like a commercial bank instead of offering affordable credit tailored for farmers. Cartelism and import concerns were raised over imported maize undermining local farmers’ efforts,” the group said in a statement.