Rising Rift Valley waters put thousands at risk as El Nino looms

A section of Lake Nakuru National Park: after rising lake waters submerged parts of the road network, disrupting access within the park. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Kenya's National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) have submitted a detailed brief to Parliament's Departmental Committee on Environment, Forestry and Mining, warning that rising water levels in several of the country's Rift Valley lakes are displacing communities, destroying livelihoods and straining public infrastructure across affected counties.

The submission, presented by NDMA Chief Executive Officer Hared Hassan, Simion Onywere, associate professor at Kenyatta University and a researcher, together with the director of the National Disaster Operations Centre, David Samoei, forms part of a broader parliamentary inquiry into the phenomenon and its consequences for communities, infrastructure and the environment.

According to the Authority, the lake systems most affected include Turkana, Baringo, Bogoria, Nakuru, Solai, Elementaita, Naivasha, Oloiden and Kamnarok.

The two institutions said that published research confirms significant changes in the extent and water levels of several Rift Valley lakes over the past decade. The institutions warn that the implications of the two lakes, Baringo and Bogoria, meeting will cause the lake water to become unsafe for drinking, submerge more land, and lead to anthropological problems.

The National Disaster Operations Centre proposed that excess water be channelled to Suguta Valley and used for irrigation.

They also highlighted that the problem is also caused by siltation and more runoff from rivers in the catchments.

According to the submission, more than 5,000 households have reportedly been displaced, a figure that the committee vice chair, Charles Kamuren, asked the various bodies to harmonise, since some reports earlier presented before the committee placed the figure at 8000 households and almost 30 institutions, causing some families to relocate multiple times as waters continue to expand. Displaced households are losing homes, farmland, grazing areas, fishing grounds and established markets that take time to rebuild.

Livelihoods dependent on the lakes have been hit hard as submerged farmland has cut crop and livestock production, fishing activity has been disrupted and lakeside tourism businesses have lost customers and income.

Roads, bridges, schools, health facilities and water systems have also been damaged or cut off, raising the cost of service delivery and, in some cases, isolating entire communities.

The authority attributed the phenomenon to an interaction of factors such as shifting rainfall patterns and climate variability, geological and hydrogeological characteristics unique to each lake basin and human activity such as deforestation, overgrazing and land use change that increases runoff, erosion and siltation into lake systems.

NDMA urged a two-track government response. In the short term, it called for stronger early warning systems, risk mapping of exposed populations and assets, safe and dignified relocation where necessary, and protection of livelihoods and food security in already drought-prone areas.

Over the medium to long term, the Authority recommended an integrated, ecosystem-based approach anchored at the lake basin and catchment level, including catchment restoration, wetland protection, risk-informed land use planning, climate-resilient infrastructure and stronger multi-agency coordination between national and county governments.

The Authority insisted that Kenya must shift from responding to the consequences of changing lake levels to anticipating and managing the underlying risks, calling for coordinated action, credible science and predictable financing to sustain that shift.

On the other hand, the National Disaster Operations Centre, using the survey done over the years, added that the increase in rainfall, minimum evaporation and siltation are among the factors that have resulted in rising water levels.

They further submitted to the committee that 110 km² of land is submerged in the lakes, therefore showing the magnitude of the effects.

The committee vice chair, Charles Kamuren, who chaired the meeting and whose constituency is most affected, said that they are working towards a solution to this problem, how to mitigate and how to rebuild the schools and how to compensate the locals.

The committee said they will sit and write a final report, present it to the House, then the House will give direction on what is supposed to be done and how it's supposed to be done.

 "The ministries will take over from there. We have managed to get all this information from all the relevant stakeholders. I think it is a big achievement; we want to say only that we are sympathising with our people who have been displaced, the schools that are submerged and other facilities that are submerged," said Kamuren.

He also called upon Kenyans, the county and national government to be prepared for El Niño, which will increase water in rivers and lakes, according to the report they received on Tuesday from the Meteorological Department that appeared before the committee.

"Don't wait until disaster occurs, because we have time to move. We are told within the next two weeks, there will be the start of this El Niño will start in different regions of this country. So, please, can you get prepared as early as now?" posed Kamuren.