New poll puts Ruto ahead but leaves race for 2027 open

President William Ruto. [File,Standard]

If elections were held today, President William Ruto would lead with 35.2 per cent of the vote, according to a new poll by Bobea Report.

The survey puts Ruto ahead of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at 19.1 per cent and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i at 14 per cent. Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka trails in fourth with 9 per cent.

Undecided voters accounted for 17.7 per cent of respondents, while 5 per cent said they would not vote.

Bobea Report conducted the poll between August 26 and September 2 through random sampling of respondents in markets, villages, estates and workplaces across the country.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Qualitative findings accompanying the figures point to development as the main driver behind Ruto's support, while Sifuna's backers cited a desire for generational change.

Matiang'i's supporters pointed to his record as a no-nonsense Cabinet Secretary, while Kalonzo's backers cited his perception as a non-corrupt leader.

The poll also surveyed several Nairobi races, where the results were far tighter.

In the race for Nairobi governor, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino leads with 26.7 per cent, followed by Governor Johnson Sakaja at 23.2 per cent and James Gakuya at 21.9 per cent.

Agnes Kagure and Kevin Odhiambo, also known as Dr. Cassypool, trail further behind. With only 3.5 percentage points separating the top two candidates and 18.5 per cent of respondents undecided, Bobea Report described the contest as too close to call.

The picture is different in Kiambu, where Governor Kimani Wamatangi holds a commanding lead.

Wamatangi polled 59.7 per cent, well ahead of James Mwaura Kogi at 4 per cent, Alice Nganga at 2.2 per cent and James Nyoro at 1 per cent.

Bobea Report said Wamatangi is the only candidate in the survey to secure majority-level support.

In the Nairobi women representative race, incumbent Esther Passaris leads with 37.9 per cent, followed by Millicent Omanga at 29.2 per cent, Karen Nyamu at 11.3 per cent and Crystal Asige at 9.3 per cent.

The Dagoretti North and Dagoretti South parliamentary races also remain open.

In Dagoretti North, Beatrice Elachi polled 32.2 per cent against Robert Alai's 27.9 per cent and Bright Shitemi's 24 per cent.

In Dagoretti South, Dennis Waweru leads with 28 per cent ahead of John Kiarie at 25.7 per cent. However, 33.8 per cent of respondents remain undecided, the largest undecided bloc recorded in the survey.

In Kibra, Raila Junior leads a crowded field for the parliamentary seat with 21.7 per cent, followed by McDonald Mariga at 15.3 per cent and Imran Okoth at 11.2 per cent.

More than a third of respondents in the constituency, 36.5 per cent, had not settled on a candidate.