Kenya facing biggest fallout in US relations

President William Ruto with President Donald Trump’s Senior Advisor Massad Boulos at State House, Nairobi. He said that Kenya acknowledges the strong cooperation it enjoys with the United States of America. President Ruto said that Kenya commits to step up these ties, especially in the areas of trade, investment, food security and stability in the Horn of Africa for mutual success. [PCS, Standard].

The cordial relationship between Kenya and the US since independence in 1963 is now being tested like never before after the US Senate announced it was investigating the country’s human rights violations and ties with rebel groups in the region.

It has also launched a review of Kenya’s strategic military alliance status because of its close ties with China and other serious allegations like gold smuggling through the country.

“In a significant development that could reshape U.S. security partnerships in Africa, the United States Senate has begun a formal reassessment of Kenya’s status as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA),” reported Voice of America on Tuesday night.

The VOA reported claimed the move resulted from growing concerns in Washington over Kenya’s increasing military and diplomatic engagements with global powers such as China, Russia, and Iran.

Responding to the threat, president Ruto told the US Senate that Kenya’s relationship with China was based on the country’s interests, among them the scrapping of tariffs by China on all exports to the Asian economic giant.

The souring of relations have come amid rising global tensions after president Donald Trump slapped many countries across the world with punitive tariffs. India for example has been asked to pay 50 percent tariffs on its exports to the US because it imports oil from Russia.

Prof Macharia Munene, a lecturer of History and International Relations Kenya is a victim of geopolitics and the relationship between Kenya and US will therefore depend on how president Ruto maneuvers diplomatically with the Americans, for them to understand that Kenya doesn’t have any ill intentions.

“It is about striking a delicate balancing act between navigating the American hegemony and its fight for global leadership against the emerging regional BRICS powers that include Brazil Russia, India Chian and South Africa,” says Munene.

He however thinks the American got infuriated by what President Ruto said during his visit to China in April. He announced that Kenya will collaborate with China to promote the interests of the Global South on the international stage.

During a public lecture at Peking University as part of his state visit, he highlighted the necessity of creating a new world order that acknowledges present realities.

He also called for an overhaul of the current financial and security architecture that arose out of the second world war because it has largely benefited the global north at the expense of the global south and hence the need to reform global financial institutions.

“While both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have evolved into development finance institutions, the ownership and power remain concentrated in the hands of wealthy countries that do not need liquidity support,” said Ruto.

Prof Munene thinks president Ruto’s claim that Kenya and China are not merely trade partners but co-architects of a new world order—one that is fair, inclusive, and sustainable could have irritated the American.

He also argues that the down grading of Kenya as a non NATO ally will not be a surprise because president Trump wants to undo everything his predecessor did and that may also include withdrawing support for the Kenyan mission in Haiti.

“Going to China was not the problem. It is what he said that seemed to annoy them because he claimed that together with president Xi Jinping, they were reorganizing the world,” says Munene.

The fact the Chinese are the biggest investors in Kenya, especially in the infrastructure sector, could also be making the US get jittery and agitated.

He also thinks the investigation into the Adani Group in New York last year, that led to the cancellation of the JKIA expansion tender was sparked by business rivalry because the Americans were also interested in the contract.

The Senate investigation will most likely be damning because it touches on issues that have been widely reported like Kenya’s relationship with rebel groups like Sudan’s Rapid Defense Forces (RSF), smuggling of arms to armed groups and receiving smuggled gold.

“They are likely to unearth a lot of things and decide to remove Kenya from the list of Non NATO allies, thus denying it the privilege of purchasing some weapons from US and stoping cooperation in information sharing and combating terrorism,” says Munene.

He also sees the Americans probably frustrating the planned relocation of UN offices to Nairobi in favour of another country because of the emerging dispute, despite the fact that Kenya is the most ideal location for such offices.

Although Trump does not want those offices in New York, he may not also want Kenya to look good and that is why he could push the UN Sectretary General to look for an alternative place probably in Africa.

Prof Munene further blames the incompetence of people handling Kenya’s foreign policy for not giving proper advice to the president. He also doubts the quality of advice that the over 20 advisors based at State House are offering.

“The Foreign Affairs ministry appears to be filled with people who cannot handle foreign relations, yet we have many experts in the country who can offer such services,” says Munene.

He gave an example of the time Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei who told local and international media that Kenya abducted and deported Turkish refugees in 2023 because Turkey had suured them that they woud be treated well.

Any well versed person holding such a position could have known that many Kurdish activists have been either detained or given long jail terms because of their political ideals and activism. Abductions is also part of issues that the Americans are considering.

The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Jim chairman Jim Risch has been following Kenya very closely. In May, he released a statement condemning the surge of abductions not only in the country but across the East Africa region.

“Rising abductions and torture in East Africa signal more than abuse. They expose state decay and impunity. That is a direct threat to regional stability, security and US interests,” he posted on his X account.

He also complained about abductions and human rights abuses in Kenya and will now likely to unearth the abuses in his investigation, which once passed by Congress will become law thus hurting Kenya’s image.

Prof Munene also thinks the planned expansion of US interests in Kenya which is seen as a regional power, could be slowed down, including the planned expansion of the Manda military base in Lamu.

Other dynamics of the US-Kenya saga include the fact that they are emerging when Ruto’s former deputy Rigathi Gachagua appears to be getting some good treatment in US states.

“Wamunyoro (Rigathi Gachagua) is there. They could be asking him to him to tell them what he knows. He looks as if he is being treated like a state guest. He says he has information to give, which he could be doing,” added Munene.

Prof Munene recorded some minor differences between the two countries in the past but this could be the first time when such a major fallout is unfolding. Past differences were mainly related to good governance and democracy.

He first saw signs of the relationship getting frosty when president left for China at a time when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was expected to visit Nairobi. The trip was unexpectedly cancelled, in what looked like a slap in the face of the Americans.

Although Kenya’s United Nations Ambassador Martin Kimani has downplayed the souring of relations, the investigations will have serious ramifications because they can lead to Kenya being black listed not only by the US but also its western partners.

Washington is becoming increasingly jittery with country’s that are seen to be working with China and BRICS country’s which strong US allies like Saudi Arabia are also planning to join.

The world-wide strength of the US dollar is also under threat from the emerging economic giants led by China. They have mooted the idea of introducing their own trading currency.

The US – Kenya relationship appears to have run full circle, barely a year after President William Ruto received a state visit and announced he had clinched bilateral deals in the US, as his entourage sampled a sumptuous State dinner at the White House.

At the White House, the AP reported that Thursday’s dinner honouring Kenyan the President, offered around 500 guests stunning DC views, a knockout menu, a dose of celebrity and even a little family drama.

President Ruto said companies like Coca Cola, Microsoft, ACORN Holdings, Everstrong Capital had agreed to invest in Kenya. That is also when Kenya was given the non-NATO ally status which is now being re-evaluated.

The re-evaluation process was triggered by an amendment, identified as Amendment 3628, to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026.

Introduced by Senator Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the amendment mandates that the U.S. Secretary of State initiate a full-scale review of Kenya’s MNNA status within 90 days of the legislation’s enactment. A detailed, classified report is expected to be presented to Congress within 180 days.