Terror risks as Somalia border reopening looms

Kenya - Somalia border wall. [File, Standard]

Counties along the volatile Kenya–Somalia border recorded the highest number of terror attacks last year, leaving 50 people dead and nearly 100 others injured.

At a time when the government is planning to reopen the border, a report by the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS) indicates that terror threats in Mandera, Garissa, Lamu and Wajir remain significant.

Although the four counties recorded a decline in deaths in 2025 compared to the previous year, when 107 lives were lost, CHRIPS says residents along the border remain vulnerable to attacks by Al-Shabaab, which is linked to most incidents.

According to the report, Garissa experienced 23 attacks resulting in 20 deaths, Mandera recorded 32 incidents leaving 13 dead, Lamu had 13 attacks that claimed 13 lives, while Wajir recorded four deaths from three attacks.

Security personnel were the primary targets, with attacks directed at police camps, military convoys and government officials.

The fatalities included 23 security officers, 16 Al-Shabaab militants, 10 civilians and one government official. Of the 94 people injured, 78 were security officers, nine civilians, six militants and one government official. The findings cover the period between January 1 and December 31, 2025.

July recorded the highest number of attacks in a single month, with 12 incidents. Militants also kidnapped 18 people, with 14 cases reported in Garissa and four in Mandera.

“The CHRIPS Observatory recorded 72 terror-related attacks in 2025, a 15 per cent decrease compared to 85 in 2024,” the report states, noting that attacks remain concentrated in the north-eastern and coastal regions.

Residents of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Lamu have borne the brunt of Al-Shabaab attacks since 2011, following the deployment of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) into Somalia. The government subsequently closed the border.

Fifteen years later, the Kenya Kwanza administration has signalled its intention to reopen the border, despite opposition from critics who warn the move could worsen insecurity.

Although not officially confirmed, President William Ruto is expected to announce the reopening during Madaraka Day celebrations in Wajir on June 1.

During a visit to Mandera in February, the President said the border would be reopened to boost trade between Kenya and Somalia.

“We will deploy adequate security to ensure criminals and insurgent groups do not infiltrate, while allowing traders from both regions to operate freely. Leave the insurgents to us; we will deal with them,” he said.

In July 2022, Kenya and Somalia announced plans to reopen the border following talks between then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, but the plan collapsed.

A renewed attempt in 2023 to reopen it in phases was suspended after a surge in Al-Shabaab attacks, with Internal Security Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo citing ongoing security operations.

Security analyst George Musamali has raised concerns over the timing of the proposed reopening, warning that Mandera remains particularly vulnerable and could face further infiltration risks.

According to CHRIPS, Mandera has consistently recorded the highest number of attacks over the past five years.

Incidents rose from 28 in 2021 to 37 in 2022, dropped to 25 in 2023, increased to 41 in 2024, before falling to 32 last year.