Why Mbadi's 201-page speech said a lot by not revealing much

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

If you had boarded a flight from Nairobi to Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo just as National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi began reading his Budget Statement on Thursday, you would have landed before he finished.

The same would apply if you had flown from Nairobi to Lusaka, Zambia.

For three hours and three minutes, CS Mbadi not only presented the country’s next budget but also took the platform to detail a scorecard on how this administration has performed since it took office in September 2022.

Compared to his 2025 Budget Statement, which was 141 pages long, this one is 201 pages.

However, listening to his speech, a keen ear would notice how the CS glossed over some of the numbers as he painted Kenya’s economy to be resilient. While sections of the budget raised new questions, others did not answer previous inquiries.

In his speech, he described how Kenya’s economy is resilient, having averaged five per cent growth in the period between 2022 and 2025, but failed to put into perspective the impending possibility that 2026 might be the worst of the last five years.

This (2022-2025) performance, he said, reflects sound macroeconomic policy management, particularly prudent monetary and sound fiscal policies, sustained structural reforms, and the increasing diversification of the economy, which has enhanced its capacity to withstand severe shocks.

Data shows that in 2025,the economy grew by 4.6 per cent compared to 4.7 per cent in 2024, which the CS said was supported by positive growth in all the sectors.

“The outlook for 2026 has been revised down to  five per cent from the earlier projection of 5.3 per cent, reflecting the adverse impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on domestic economic activities. The economy is projected to maintain the momentum in 2027 with a projected growth rate of 5.2 per cent,” he asserted.

This projection, however, is considered a stretch when compared to what came out of a parliamentary committee report.

The report by the National Assembly Committee on Budget and Appropriations, chaired by Samuel Atandi (Alego Usoga), projects that the economy is likely to grow at a slower pace than in 2025 due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The report notes the National Treasury’s five per cent revision from 5.3 per cent but argues that the spill-over effects would have the 2026 economy grow at 4.4 per cent.

The projections are from the Parliamentary Budget Office.

“The resulting spill-over effects may reduce the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector, weaken household purchasing power through higher consumer prices, and slow overall economic activity,” reads the report.

It adds that these risks could undermine projected recovery in key sectors, constrain the pace of economic growth in the year and affect overall budget implementation through low revenue performance, increased expenditures and potential financing constraints.

“The Parliamentary Budget Office projects the economic growth will moderate at 4.4 per cent in 2026 due to both domestic and external factors,” the report says.

These domestic factors include climate-related shocks, high cost of doing business, and debt vulnerabilities while externally, the main issue is the Middle East conflict that has disrupted trade, weakened export performance and increased the cost of imports.

Keen to ensure the Budget Statement clearly documents the gains made by President William Ruto’s administration, Mbadi also cherry-picked some of the figures.

The sugar sector is an example.

He said interventions under the sugar sector have led to significant growth in both cane production and processing capacity, with the area under sugarcane cultivation increasing by 19.4 per cent and national sugar production rising to 815,454 metric tonnes in 2024 from 472,773 metric tonnes in 2022. This data set, while accurate, omits the latest 2025 figures where sugarcane production dropped.

The 2026 Economic Survey Report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) notes that sugar cane production dropped by 24.7 per cent to 7,051,900 tonnes.

This drop in 2025 did affect the manufacturing sector as agro-based manufacturing contracted in the period.

“Agro-based manufacturing contracted by 1.2 per cent, compared to a 7.9 per cent growth in 2024. The contraction was driven by a 24.8 per cent drop in sugar output and a five per cent drop in fruit and vegetable processing,” reads the Economic Survey Report.

Another data set debunked by the 2026 Economic Survey Report is on maize production. While numbers by the CS claim maize production stood at 67 million bags in 2025, the report gives a lower figure.

The CS, while detailing gains in the agricultural sector, said maize production almost doubled to 67 million bags in 2025 from 34 million bags in 2022.

This is as maize imports declined substantially to 3.3 million bags from 9.9 million bags over the same period, reflecting improved domestic efficiency.

“The increased production contributed to a decline of retail prices of a 2kg packet of maize flour from an average of Sh250 to an average of Sh165 over the same period,” he said.

However, data from the KNBS report show maize production stood at 45.8 million bags in 2025, a growth of 2.4 per cent from 44.8 million bags in 2024.

A major issue that touches on 3.3 million Kenyans that he failed to talk about is the plan to offer relief on Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE).

Of the documents that he presented to the National Assembly, the proposal on increasing the exemption on PAYE from the current Sh24,000 to Sh30,000 was not among them.

This is despite repeated claims by the CS and the President that this proposal will be tabled in Parliament and passed either before or alongside the Finance Bill 2026.

[e-mail] “Even if it is not in the Finance Bill 2026, it is not off the table. We are going to make sure that the promise by the President and the CS National Treasury is implemented,” said CS Mbadi at a press conference after the budget reading, refusing to commit himself to when it will be done.

While the budget offered hope to businesses owed by the government, it also raised doubts about how a section of the pending bills will be cleared.

The CS said in the financial year 2026/27, a budgetary allocation of Sh68 billion has been set aside to settle the verified pending bills of up to Sh100 million.

Moreover, once the Sh68 billion has been paid, the government would have cleared 99 per cent of the verified outstanding pending bills. Representing 63 per cent of the total value.

“The remaining Sh88 billion worth of claims will be addressed through other budgetary provisions and instruments,” he said, with no specifications on how this cash will be sourced.

A major issue that touches on 3.3 million  Kenyans that he failed to talk about is the plan to offer relief on Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE). Of the documents that he presented to the National Assembly, the proposal on increasing the exemption on PAYE from the current Sh24,000 to Sh30,000 was not among them.

This is despite repeated claims by the CS and the President that this proposal will be tabled in Parliament and passed either before or alongside the Finance Bill 2026.

“Even if it is not in the Finance Bill 2026, it is not off the table. We are going to make sure that the promise by the President and the CS National Treasury is implemented,” said CS Mbadi at a press conference after the budget reading, refusing to commit himself to when it will be done.