Kenyans warned of diseases and destruction as El Nino closes in

This photograph shows a flag of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) floating next to their headquarters in Geneva on June 1, 2026. [AFP]

Approximately 15,000km away from Kenya, in the Pacific Ocean, the sea surface is warming.

This, believe it or not, has set in motion a climatic chain reaction that will precipitate into an El Niño here at home.

“The drivers of our rainfall are from across the world. We are all part of one planet and its climate system. There are teleconnections that influence weather. El Nino is one such teleconnection that has been studied and seen to impact rainfall across the globe in different ways,” says Patricia Nyinguro, the principal meteorologist at Kenya Meteorological Department.

For East Africa – Kenya directly in the crosshairs – the impact is enhanced, heavier-than-normal rainfall.

USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed formation of El Niño in the tropical Pacific and issued an official advisory.

The weather phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are at least 0.5C higher than normal for consecutive months. The forecast indicates a 63 per cent chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C later on in the year.

The excess 1.5C is expected to not just deliver an El Nino but a ‘super El Niño’.

Also, there is a positive Indian Ocean Dipole: meaning we have warmer-than-usual ocean waters closer to the East African coast.

“When this happens, we get higher than normal rainfall in East Africa. So, both El Nino (brewing in the Pacific) and the Indian Ocean positive dipole (in the Indian Ocean), both will be leading to excessive rainfall in Kenya. The so called super El Nino will give us heavy rainfall; somewhat similar to what we saw in 1997/98,” Nyinguro says.

The infamous 1997/98 El Nino claimed many lives directly and indirectly.

“The water was too much. Rivers had burst banks and invaded villages. Vehicles could not move. People too. And many families needed relief food to survive,” says Joseph Sayialel, who was the councilor of Lengisim ward in Kajiado County (District at the time).

Most forecast models, notes World Meteorological Organization (WMO), suggest that the upcoming El Niño will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.

WMO El Niño updates is the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

While El Nino, for our part of the world, generally portends too much rain, the phenomenon is double-faced: unleashing torrential rainfall in some parts of the world while producing drought conditions in others.

Scientifically described as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa (where Kenya belongs) and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

As Kenya expects a deluge, across the Sahel, from Senegal in West Africa, bending eastward into Ethiopia and Sudan, severe drought conditions are expected.

If the 1997 El Nino is anything to go by, the 2026 one calls for caution, at the very least.

Utilising 41 years of historical satellite imagery from its Agricultural Stress Index System, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) experts mapped where El Nino-linked drought is most likely to impact crops and pasturelands in 2026/27.

The risks, they state, are sharpest in the Sahel, across Southern Africa where they are facing more than a 50 per cent chance of drought in the coming months.

“This isn't like previous El Niños. The planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this new phase will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity,” says Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, FAO Natural Resources Officer.

FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint anticipatory action appeal seeking $202 million (Sh26.3 billion) to protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries from the potential impact of the super El Nino.

In Southern Africa FAO’s forecast points to a greater than 50 percent probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.

“For Kenya, the potential downsides expected could be waterlogging or flooding croplands, preventing proper development of crops. There will be increased incidences of diseases and pests because of water stagnation. Then you also have livestock diseases that usually would be associated with wet conditions,” Nyinguro, who is also Kenya’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Focal Point, says.

The weather changes brought by a strong El Niño can also spread infectious diseases. During the super El Niño in 2015/16, disease outbreaks of West Nile virus, hantavirus and the plague increased in parts of USA.

El Nino is also expected to create a surge in vector-borne diseases.

Nyinguro explains: “For example, malaria. So you might find more instances of mosquitoes because we have pools of water everywhere.”

Other vector-borne disease of concern include Rift Valley Fever (RVF), Chikungunya and Yellow fever.

Anthrax epidemics, a deadly zoonotic bacterial disease, are also known to follow periods of intense rainfall or drought.

“The disease is caused by anthrax spores found in infected soil. Heavy rains bring up the spores to the surface. Livestock, as they eat interact with potentially infected water or pasture, through which they pick up the bacteria,” says Dr Khadija Chepkorir, the head of Zoonotic Disease Unit (ZDU) at Ministry of Health.

Waterborne diseases, such as cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases, during flooding, is a no-brainer.

“We will likely see a surge in diseases that arise from difficulties in human waste and sanitary disposal management,” Nyinguro says.

And then, unfortunately, there may be human lives that will be lost directly linked to the intensity of the rainfall. Floods in Kenya have swept away humans and livestock alike.

“Areas generally prone to landslides will get them. And usually without proper preparation, lives usually get lost,” Nyinguro says, noting that the advantage we have today – unlike in 1997 – is the forecast that alerts everyone.

“Everyone must plan a bit better for it and perhaps reduce the losses and damages that are usually associated with these types of events,” she says.

When can we expect the EL Nino rains?

According to Nyinguro, El Nino usually impact the October, November and December (OND) rains.

“It is not that El Nino will last a certain number of months; it is the impact it will have on our rainfall. The OND rains will be higher than normal.”

In the next two months, June to August, scientists will be paying close attention to the warming on the surface of Pacific Ocean.

According to WMO, the probability for a super El Nino are currently at 80 per cent. This, they say, is likely to rise to 90 per cent in the next few months.

While El Nino itself is a natural event – occurring every two to seven years – that is not related to climate change, every ENSO event imbues the planet with warmth.

The most recent El Niño, in 2023/24, played a role in making 2024 the hottest year on record,” says WMO’s Saulo.

In a video statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, added his voice to the super El Nino forecast, saying: “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.  The only effective response is climate action: [among them] ending the addiction to fossil fuels and accelerating the shift to renewables.”

Nyinguro says all Kenyans must take heed and prepare for the heavy, above normal, and relentless rainfall when they begin.