Senior school dropout rate threat to CBE rollout, reveals new survey

Hellen Avisa, Director Junior School Ministry of Education, during the public launch of the 2026 Junior School Education and Senior School Survey Reports by Usawa Agenda at KICD in Nairobi, on August 19, 2026. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard]

An emerging pattern of learners dropping out as they transition to Senior School is raising concerns over the ability of the new education structure to retain children beyond Junior School.

The 3rd Senior School Survey Report 2026 by Usawa Agenda estimates that three in every 100 Senior School learners dropped out of school in the year preceding the survey, with dropout rates varying significantly across different categories of schools.

The report found that Cluster Four schools recorded the highest dropout rate at 3.4 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in Cluster One schools. Private schools recorded a dropout rate of two per cent, while special schools recorded 1.4 per cent.

Behind the figures are learners who have been forced out of school by circumstances ranging from financial hardship and difficult family backgrounds to academic struggles and the attraction of earning an income.

For Natalie Marion, the transition to Grade 10 never happened.

The former Nyaburi Integrated School learner in Homa Bay County completed Junior School but did not join Senior School due to financial constraints facing her family.

As the firstborn in a family of seven children raised by a single mother who relies on farming, casual work and cleaning jobs to provide for the family, Natalie had to make the painful decision to discontinue her education.

Faced with competing demands for food, healthcare and school fees for her siblings, she decided to leave school and help her mother earn a living.

“I just had to drop out and look for something to do,” Natalie said.

She now accompanies her mother to casual jobs, sometimes working separately when there are jobs in different locations so they can combine their earnings.

But Natalie is not alone. In Elgeyo Marakwet,Isaac Kiplagat, a teacher at a rural primary and junior school says some learners are unable to proceed to Senior School because their families cannot meet the financial demands associated with the transition to grade 10.

''So after grade 9, you find that some parents cannot afford to raise school fees and other requirements needed to join grade 10,'' he said.

The teacher also linked dropout to difficult home environments, weak parental engagement and teenage pregnancies.Some learners, the teacher said, become responsible for themselves at an early age and turn to casual work instead of remaining in school.

''You find that some parents do not have concern for their children. So you find that the  child becomes somehow independependent at home,'' said Isaac.

Mr Isaac said the school has recorded cases of girls leaving school following early pregnancies, with about three such cases reported in the past two years.

''Like in my area now, for the last two years, we have had around three girls in our school who have dropped out because of that situation,'' he said.

The teacher further revealed that some Grade 9 learners have already decided not to continue with education beyond junior school. According to the teacher, some of these learners have indicated that they will only return to school to sit their grade 9 assessment before leaving education altogether.

“They have already decided that they will not continue after Grade 9,” the teacher said, adding that their reasons are largely linked to challenges at home.

Some, the teacher said, come from homes where there is inadequate food and poor living conditions, while others have parents struggling with alcohol abuse, leaving learners to make decisions about their own lives at an early age.

The teacher said such circumstances can make it difficult for schools to keep learners engaged, particularly where parents are not actively involved in their children's education.

But financial hardship is not the only explanation for learners leaving school.

Chris, who attended a primary school in Kendu Bay, dropped out after Grade Nine despite having his education sponsored. He mentioned that he struggled with his studies and eventually decided not to continue with school and now works as a shepherd by day and a watchman at night.

Unlike Natalie, who hopes to return to school when her family's circumstances improve, Chris says he would not consider going back because he feels he is now too old to sit in a classroom with younger learners.

For Alphonce, academic difficulties followed him into senior school from primary school.

Although his parents provided everything he needed for his education, he dropped out in Grade 10 after struggling to understand what he was being taught during the first term.

He now works as a caterer and says the income he earns has changed his perception of education and does not intend to return to school, arguing that people pursue education largely to secure employment and earn money in the future, something he is already doing.

There are also parents watching their children leave school despite years of effort to keep them in education.

Collins Omondi says his son David struggled academically from lower primary school but persevered until Grade 10.

The learner eventually dropped out midway through Senior School despite having joined the new level of education. Omondi says financial challenges at home have also limited the options available to his son, who now helps with the family's small-scale farming activities.

He hopes to enroll him in a welding course in future.

The different experiences point to a dropout problem with no single cause.

While some learners are unable to make the transition because of financial constraints, others leave after joining senior school because of academic difficulties, lack of parental support or the need to earn an income.

The Usawa Agenda report further found that learners in day schools were more than three times as likely to drop out as their counterparts in boarding schools, while learners in day and boarding schools were more than twice as likely to drop out as those in boarding schools.

The findings raise questions about whether the transition to senior school is adequately addressing the economic, social and academic challenges that determine whether learners remain in school.

For Natalie, the classroom has been replaced by casual work alongside her mother.For Chris, it is shepherding and night security work. Alphonce has found work in catering, while David has turned to farming.

Their stories reveal what the three per cent dropout figure cannot show the lives and choices behind learners who were expected to continue their education but are now outside the classroom.