Horn of Africa becoming 'battleground' for rival Gulf monarchies

A new UAE-funded palace rises above Addis Ababa, symbolising the growing Gulf power struggle in the Horn of Africa. [Screen grab, AFP]

On a hill overlooking the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, a giant new palace is emerging, funded by the Emiratis and an ostentatious sign of the way Gulf monarchies are battling for influence in the Horn of Africa.

The Horn -- that comprises Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea -- is a highly strategic spot on one of the world's busiest trade routes between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean and lies just across the Red Sea from the Middle East.

"For Gulf states, the Horn of Africa is a crucial battleground for geopolitical and geo-economic competition," regional specialist Anna Jacobs told AFP.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has the most visible -- and most criticised -- presence in eastern Africa.

Its support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries in Sudan is widely documented, albeit officially denied.

The UAE has also angered Somalia by investing in the breakaway region of Somaliland, where its giant logistics firm DP World has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into developing a deep-water port and airfield, which it uses with little regard for the government in Mogadishu.

Many experts see the UAE's hand behind Israel's decision to become the first country to recognise Somaliland's independence in December. It's a typical high-risk move by the Emiratis to reshape the regional order, said Jacobs.

But such moves have deepened tensions with the UAE's ally-turned-rival, Saudi Arabia.

The two monarchies joined forces in 2014 to fight Houthi rebels in Yemen, but the alliance has fractured and they now back opposing forces in the country.

Riyadh last month bombed a suspected arms shipment to Yemen originating from the UAE.

Saudi Arabia traditionally focused on "supporting state institutions and the status quo," said Jacobs, but is now on the offensive against the UAE, including in the Horn of Africa.

The competition is forging new alliances. There are rumours of a military agreement in the works between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Somalia in order to counter Emirati influence. Somalia already cancelled all existing agreements with the UAE last month.

- Fuels instability -

Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country with some 130 million people, is also being drawn into the power plays.

The UAE gave a $3-billion loan to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shortly after he came to power in 2018, and a vital $800-million currency swap line in 2023.

The scale of investment by the UAE into Ethiopia -- exemplified by the multi-billion-dollar palace -- is so great that it has turned Ethiopia into a "vassal state", former CIA analyst Cameron Hudson told AFP.

Sudan's army accused Ethiopia in December of hosting a training base for its RSF enemies -- the implication being that it was funded by the UAE. Ethiopian authorities did not respond to a request for comment from AFP.

The money pouring in from the Gulf is deepening existing faultlines across the region.

Ethiopia has been increasingly at odds with its long-time rival, Eritrea, while its new mega-dam on the River Nile has angered Egypt.

The result is that Egypt and Eritrea have sought closer ties with each other and Saudi Arabia to counter Ethiopia.

The mega-rich Gulf monarchies have a dangerous amount of influence over the poor, conflict-ridden countries of east Africa, said Ethiopian researcher Biraanu Gammachu.

"It's an asymmetric relation between emerging middle power countries and donor-dependent states... The Gulf countries' influence in the Red Sea sustains the instability in the region," he said.

Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki, who rarely travels, visited Saudi Arabia twice in 2025 and recently criticised the "destabilising" role of the UAE in Sudan.

Eritrea could become more directly involved in the Sudanese war as a result, warned Hudson.

"This could very quickly escalate into a regional conflict," he warned.