When donkeys disrupt two-horse races and refuse to give up easily

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and DAP- Kenya party leader Eugene Wamalwa during the launch of new DAP- Kenya party headquarters in Karen, Nairobi on January 27, 2025. [Collins Oduor, Standard]

A two-horse race in politics is a high-stakes election where seemingly, only two candidates have a real chance of winning. In this context, 'donkeys' can be described as candidates who apparently have no chance, as it's assumed that one of the two 'horses' will ultimately win.

In early 2013, I interviewed Prof James ole Kiyiapi at Serena Hotel, for an international media house. This intense encounter allowed me to scrutinise his policy proposals and gain insight into the man's values. In subsequent weeks, after evaluating the policies and track records of all presidential candidates, I ultimately voted for Prof Kiyiapi, despite him being a 'donkey' in a two-horse race between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. When the ballots were counted, my vote was among the mere 40,998 he received. This was just 0.34 per cent of the total, placing him second to last in an eight-person contest.

Since independence, Kenya has had five 'top horses' who won the presidency-Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. Other distinguished figures in this exclusive stable include Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and his son Raila Odinga. Perennial contenders and kingmakers, though never kings themselves, include Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula. Then there are the donkeys, the long shots in the race - where Kiyiapi belonged.

In 1997, a 'donkey' named Wangari Maathai ran for president. Upon declaring her candidacy, she stated, "Kenyans have to look for an alternative leader... The most important thing is that come Election Day, Kenyans will not be looking for a woman, but a leader."

She was wrong. As it turned out, Kenyans were looking for a horse, not a leader. The future Nobel laureate secured only 4,246 votes, a far cry from incumbent President Moi's 2,500,865 votes or Mwai Kibaki's 1,911,742 votes. As a political 'donkey,' Maathai was destined to lose regardless of her leadership qualities. Similarly, in 1992, during Kenya's first multi-party elections, veteran politician George Anyona never stood a chance. However, these elections were instructive because one donkey, Kenneth Matiba, defied expectations and nearly defeated President Moi.

Matiba's near miss should remind the electorate that sovereign power rests with the people. They can elect transformative leaders and hold them accountable. Alexander the Great, the ancient Greek leader once said, 'I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.' It may be that Kenya has never roared economically because sheep don't roar. Maybe our horses have been sheep who have cowered in the face of corruption, poverty and tribalism.

However, if leaders are merely reflections of their people, doesn't that mean Kenyans are sheep rather than lions led by sheep? For Kenyans to be led by lions, they must first embody the courage and strength of lions themselves. One way to achieve this is by daring to look beyond the usual presidential contenders. In the 2027 elections, this means shifting focus away from the incumbent president and the predictable opposition, which will likely feature two former deputy presidents, Kalonzo and Rigathi Gachagua, along with their cronies.

In reality, donkeys disempower themselves and empower horses by electing them in every election cycle. This phenomenon isn't unique to Kenya. In Liberia's 2023 elections, former Liberian Vice President Joseph Boakai trounced the incumbent George Weah. They were both horses. Tiawan Gongloe, a renowned human rights lawyer with a track record of defending Liberians, managed only 26,394 votes.

Thankfully, every once in a while, voters elect donkeys. It happened in 2008 when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, the two horses of the Democratic Party nomination contest.

It happened in 1960 when Patrice Lumumba, a former postal worker turned activist, defied the odds to win Congo's elections with a powerful message of unity, anti-colonialism, and sovereignty. Despite lacking wealth or political backing, his charisma and unwavering vision made him Congo's first prime minister and a symbol of Africa's fight for self-determination.

The lesson is clear: donkeys only remain powerless if they accept their fate. History has shown that when people reject the illusion of inevitability and dare to back the underdog, true transformation becomes possible.