Will the waves of the US political tsunami reach our shores?

Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico celebrates after winning the Texas race during a midterm election night watch party at the Long Center for the Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, on November 3, 2026. [AFP]

The US mid-term election results are out, and the Republicans have resoundingly lost both Houses: the House of Representatives, which mirrors our National Assembly and the Senate, just like ours but with more power. Why are our women representatives not senators despite a countywide mandate?

Let’s spend a few minutes on our 2010 constitution, which borrowed something from the US model. Why didn’t we get midterm elections to “wake up the government midway?

Why did our framers, mostly lawyers, somehow “fail to see” that?

Such mid-term polls, in addition to keeping government focused, ensure we rarely have a completely new set of representatives and therefore continuity. They make polls more manageable. 

The framers of our constitution also did “not see” the absence of nominated MPs and senators in the US. Is that evidence of the invisible hand of politics?

I was taken aback by a recent amendment proposal that parties can nominate MCAs who are not residents of the wards they represent. One can be an MCA in Shamakhokho while being from Mpeketoni. That is abuse of democracy, and we can predict who the parties will nominate.

 In a mature democracy, we shouldn’t have nominated representatives. Such nomination is part of influence peddling, unless we vote for parties, not individuals. Is our constitution impossible to amend?

Back to America. Why did Republicans lose both Houses? Any lesson for us? It’s the economy. In developed countries, economic issues determine the winners and losers.

The Iran war raised the price of gas (gasoline in the US or petrol here).

That, in turn, raised inflation, and everyone felt it. The consumers retaliated through the ballot box.

Occasionally, wars help leaders win by raising national morale and patriotism. Remember George Bush II and the war on terror or Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands War?  Iran war did the opposite.

The cost of living is felt by everyone; why some solidly Republican regions voted for Democrats, some for the first time since 1881! 

Two, Donald Trump was not popular, and voters indicated that by voting republicans out. Asking voters to assume he was on the ballot did not make matters any better.

 His unpopularity is tied to the Iran war and the cost of living. Some add the feeling that he is too transactional. Did America first lose its lustre?

Three is a “correction,” a term from stock markets. US politics needed a correction; Republicans had shifted too far from the mainstream on domestic and international policies. Voters yearned for a balance.

Four is demographics, as Hispanics and Blacks shifted away from republicans, yet they helped put Trump in power.

They probably felt the cost of living more acutely than the other demographic groups. Add Gen Z, who, too, felt the economic burden with low job prospects and shifted to the Democratic Party.

Five, Democrats seem to have regrouped after losing to Trump a second time and replacing Biden with Kamala Harris.

With the high cost of living and Trump unpopularity, their campaign messaging was easier. They even had Obama on the campaign trail.

There could be other regional and specific reasons for losses, like opposition to data centres. Political analysts have enough fodder as they crunch data.  One last question: will Democrats keep the momentum and take the White House in 2028?

Any lessons for us?

We are feeling the economic effects of the Iran war with rising inflation. Yet the Kenya Kwanza government had promised to reduce that. Joblessness is still a matter of concern, and corruption, though less in the headlines, is entrenched. In 2027, expect the cost of living to be a determinant of our voting pattern.

 Will the leaders convince voters they did their part? Is it the Iran war that led to higher prices?   Will there be reliefs like subsidies?  Governments try to appease voters at the last minute. Watch this space.

The focus on “development and “empowerment” is designed to mute the effect of inflation and the cost of living. The focus on big projects like the Lamu refinery, the SGR to western Kenya and the Rironi-Mau Summit road are also meant to mask the subterranean economic suffering and anger. Noted constructions everywhere except in our minds?

The popularity of President Ruto and his promises will matter too. Expect lots of image revamping and spinning. Remember, we only remember what is more recent. 

What of demographics?

Do we have data to show who voted for which party in 2022? In terms of age, levels of education, tribes? Counties?  Anecdotal evidence suggests religion was a big factor. Will it play the same role in 2027?

Why was Shakahola perpetrator jailed for 200 years? Could that "save" religion as a political power in 2027? Maybe I'm overthinking.  If not, what will be the replacement for religion and as emotional? 

Gen Z played a role in turning the tide against Republicans. Will they do the same here?  Will this group be divided as we head to 2027? Expect lots of Gen Z to start talking in “ political tongues .”

Will there be a correction? The government beyond the Gen Z crackdown has tried to be “ good “ without policy extremes. Expect it to become even more accommodating and “fatherly “ as we shift to 2027.

2027 polls will also  be determined by “defence.” Some regions will do anything to defend the presidency, hopefully with no violence.  They feel it’s theirs and the benefits thereof. I keenly follow the Kenya Gazette on Fridays to see the appointments to various boards. It’s not that random.

Let's add: fear and external factors will come into play. Noted the fear behind the national silence? External powers have a stake in Kenya through trade and investment.

Noted the growing French influence?  The Russian summit? China? Will democrats change their policy on Kenya?

Kenya has slowly become a two-party State, or is it a two-coalition State? The opposition, despite being decapitated through broad-based government, has regrouped.

Will they hold together as we head to 2027? Will moles leave, if they exist?  Will the opposition give a better Vision or promise than the government?   Is their image of being disjointed a ploy?

Kenya is different from America. Beyond voter turnout, it is a fact we must not underestimate: who controls the voting process, from registration to actual voting, counting and verification.

Will there be a tsunami in 2027? It looks unlikely unless we become economically angry enough with higher oil prices, levies, taxes and nepotism.

 Don’t be surprised if some taxes and levies are reviewed before polls next year. By then, Ol Kalou and the Republican rout will have been forgotten and buried by a new layer of issues.  Expect another close contest like 2017 and 2022.