From Mudavadi to Wetangula: Ruto's coattailers who cannot afford a 2027 election loss

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi have tied their political messaging to the survival of the broad-based government. [File, Standard]

They are the group walking on sinking sand, unsure of what their political future holds but have thrown all their weight behind President William Ruto’s reelection bid for their own political survival.

While some are second-term governors facing the prospects of a life in political oblivion unless a lucrative political appointment comes by, others are veteran politicians whose political future is also hanging in the balance.

But for the Cabinet Secretaries serving in Ruto’s administration, pushing for Ruto’s reelection is more urgent and they have thrown huge resources into campaigns, disregarding the laws requiring state officers not to engage in politics.

At funerals, State functions, development launches and government events, the chorus is becoming familiar-President William Ruto must be re-elected in 2027.

Observers believe some proponents of this narrative are leaders whose political futures are crumbling and who are now betting on their survival by clinging to the president's coat. The list also includes ODM leaders who relied on the late Raila Odinga's endorsements for political survival but are now hoping to chart a new path through the president.

In Nyanza, so desperate is the group that creating Artificial Intelligence (AI) photos of them with the President has become a norm every time he visits the region in an attempt to seek public approval. In the past, such photos featured the late ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi, John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and Salim Mvurya, as well as ODM leader Oburu Oginga, have all increasingly tied their political messaging to the survival of the broad-based government and, by extension, Ruto’s presidency.

Their public explanation is development, stability and continuity.

But beneath the rhetoric lies a more personal political calculation.

For many of them, Ruto’s defeat would not simply mean a change of government. It could mean the end of the political relevance they have regained, or the positions they have acquired, since 2022.

That is why their repeated calls for Ruto’s re-election are attracting increasing scrutiny from political analysts.

The question is not necessarily whether they believe Ruto can win. It is whether they can afford for him to lose.

The President himself appeared to acknowledge the high stakes during the August 10 broad-based government retreat in Naivasha, where he told his UDA and ODM allies that they had to approach 2027 with urgency.

“We must win the 2027 general elections not for your sake but because the alternative is difficult to fathom,” Ruto told the leaders.

The remark was striking because it appeared directed not only at Ruto’s traditional political supporters but also at the politicians sitting around the table with him, many of whom have accumulated considerable political capital through their association with his administration.

Few politicians illustrate this fear of losing — and their dependence on Ruto’s political coat-tails — better than Mudavadi.

For more than a decade, the former Vice-President and Deputy Prime Minister struggled to regain the national influence he had enjoyed during the Kibaki era.

His 2013 presidential bid under the United Democratic Forum did not deliver the breakthrough he wanted, while his role in opposition politics in 2017 and 2022 kept him outside government.

Then came the 2022 election, when Ruto reached out to Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, two politicians who had spent years outside the centre of government, and brought them into Kenya Kwanza.

Mudavadi entered government as Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs CS, marking a dramatic return to the centre of national power.

His political fortunes have since become increasingly intertwined with Ruto’s.

The biggest sign of this was the decision to dissolve ANC and fold its structures into UDA, taking away the independent party platform Mudavadi had built.

Supporters defended the merger as strategic, but critics argued that the move diminished Mudavadi’s bargaining power because he no longer controls an independent political vehicle.

This makes his enthusiasm for Ruto’s re-election particularly significant.

In July, Mudavadi dismissed the idea that Ruto could easily be defeated, telling his opponents: “Those who think they will beat President Ruto should better think twice.”

He went further, saying Ruto’s re-election was guaranteed by his popularity.

The Prime CS has also urged Kenyans to give Ruto a decisive victory, arguing that a large margin would prevent the election from ending up in court.

For Mudavadi, therefore, a Ruto victory means more than continuity of government. It keeps him at the centre of national politics and gives him time to build his own political future beyond 2027.

A Ruto defeat would present a very different equation for a politician who no longer has his own national party machinery.

Wetang’ula’s journey is similar, although his reward in 2022 was different.

For years, his national political influence rested largely on his position as Bungoma senator and leader of Ford Kenya.

He remained an important figure in Western Kenya politics but spent long periods outside the inner circle of government.

The 2022 alliance with Ruto changed that.

Wetang’ula emerged as Speaker of the National Assembly, putting him among the country’s three most powerful constitutional office holders.

The position has given him national visibility and influence far beyond what the Bungoma Senate seat could offer.

Moses Ombayo, a lawyer and political analyst, argues that the Speakership is ultimately dependent on parliamentary numbers.

“If Ruto loses the presidency and the political balance in Parliament changes, Wetang’ula’s position could become vulnerable,” notes Ombayo.

Wetang’ula’s aggressive defence of Ruto’s re-election therefore has a clear political logic.

In his recent speeches, Wetang’ula has maintained that he was confident Ruto would “win decisively” in 2027 and linked that expected victory to the President’s development record.

Other Western leaders have even floated Wetang’ula as a possible running mate for Ruto, adding another dimension to his political calculation.

“For Wetang’ula, the 2027 contest could therefore determine not only whether he retains influence but whether his political stature rises further,” said Ombayo.

But perhaps nowhere is the fear of losing more dramatic than among the ODM politicians who entered government after the Gen Z protests of 2024.

Wandayi, Mbadi, Joho and Oparanya spent years on the opposition side, campaigning against Ruto and criticising his administration.

Then the political earthquake of 2024 changed the equation.

Ruto reached across the political divide and brought prominent ODM figures into his Cabinet.

Mbadi took charge of the National Treasury, while Wandayi became Energy and Petroleum CS.

Joho was given the Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs docket, while Oparanya became Cooperatives CS.

The appointments gave the four politicians something opposition politics could not offer at that moment — direct access to the machinery of government.

But their political positions are now also tied to the survival of the arrangement that brought them into government.

Mbadi and Wandayi no longer have the same parliamentary platforms they once commanded, while Joho and Oparanya have already served their two terms as governors.

Their political future therefore increasingly lies beyond elective county or parliamentary office.

And that future is easier to imagine under a government that remains in power.

This explains the remarkable political reversal.

Politicians who were once among Ruto’s strongest critics have become some of his strongest defenders.

They now attend government functions, defend government projects and campaign for the same President they once sought to defeat.

Political analysts note that Kenyan politics has always been fluid, but the current arrangement demonstrates how valuable proximity to State power can become for politicians whose previous political platforms have expired.

Then there is Oburu Oginga, perhaps the most important political coattailer in the current arrangement.

As the new ODM leader following the death of his younger brother, Raila Odinga, Oburu inherited one of Kenya’s most recognisable political parties at a moment of profound uncertainty.

Rather than taking ODM back into opposition, he has chosen to deepen its cooperation with Ruto.

In July, Oburu made the party’s position explicit.

“ODM will not field a presidential candidate in 2027 and will instead support President Ruto for a second term,” he said.

That is a major departure for a party whose political identity was built around Raila’s opposition to successive governments.

But Oburu’s calculation appears to be that ODM can remain politically relevant by negotiating from within the broad-based arrangement rather than returning to opposition.

The party still needs to perform strongly in parliamentary and gubernatorial races to maintain its bargaining power.

But at the presidential level, it has effectively placed its bet on Ruto.

That means ODM has two interests that must coexist: it needs to remain strong enough to bargain with Ruto, while Ruto needs to remain strong enough to keep ODM close to power.

Oburu, who is also said to be seeking to defend his Siaya Senate seat, has urged the Luo-Nyanza vote bloc to back Ruto for their future prosperity.

After the Broad-based retreat early this month, he predicted that Ruto would win the 2027 election by a landslide and emphasised ODM’s grassroots structures as an important component of the broad-based alliance.

Observers note that if Ruto wins, ODM could secure influence inside government and negotiate a longer-term political arrangement.

If he loses, ODM could find itself returning to opposition without the political dominance it enjoyed under Raila.

At the Coast, Joho and Mvurya have their own reasons to hope for continuity.

Joho is a former two-term Mombasa governor whose political career was once built around ODM and Raila’s opposition movement.

His entry into Ruto’s Cabinet restored his national relevance after leaving county politics.

Mvurya, meanwhile, served two terms as Kwale governor before joining the national government.

For politicians who have exhausted their gubernatorial options, national appointments become an important avenue for continued political influence.

Mvurya’s future, in particular, is likely to be shaped by whether Ruto remains in State House.

Others hoping for Ruto’s re-election are governors serving their final terms.

Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka has emerged as one of the most visible Western Kenya campaigners for Ruto.

His message is couched in regional development and continuity.

“We shall rally the Western Kenya region behind him,” Lusaka and other regional leaders have said in support of the President’s 2027 bid.

More recently, Lusaka has argued that renewing Ruto’s mandate would guarantee continuity of major projects in the region.

Lusaka’s second gubernatorial term means he must soon look beyond Bungoma County politics.

Political analyst David Owino argues that a politician can support a candidate because he genuinely believes in that candidate’s chances, but can also support him because the alternative is politically frightening.

“For Ruto’s coattailers, the motivations may now be difficult to separate. Their political fortunes have been woven into the President’s,” notes Owino.