TIFA: Kenyans say their life has become harder under Ruto rule

Three in four Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest level recorded in more than three years of tracking, according to a  TIFA Research poll released this week.

The survey, conducted June 13–22 among 2,048 adults across all 47 counties, found 76 per cent of respondents said Kenya was moving in the wrong direction, up from 68 per cent in November 2025. Only 15 per cent believed the country was on the right path.

The findings were revealed at a time Kenya's inflation rate climbed to 6.7 per cent in May from 5.6 per cent in April, driven largely by transport costs after the government raised pump prices.

Petrol in Nairobi hit Sh214.25 per litre, diesel Sh232.86 and kerosene Sh191.38, despite a VAT cut and stabilisation subsidies.

The IMF cut Kenya's 2026 growth forecast to 4.5 per cent from 4.9 per cent, while the World Bank lowered its projection to 4.4 per cent, warning the Middle East conflict could cost Kenya up to $40 million monthly in remittance losses.

The poll underscores a widening gap between the government's macroeconomic narrative and household reality.

President William Ruto over the weekend mounted a vigorous defence of his economic record and declared himself ready to face voters in 2027.

Speaking in Kapsoit, Kericho County, during a stopover on Friday, Ruto said his administration had "stabilised the economy, lowered interest rates and inflation, and doubled the country's foreign exchange reserves".

"I am ready to be held to account for the commitments I made to the people of Kenya," Ruto said, challenging his political opponents to scrutinise his manifesto and present an alternative plan rather than "focusing on criticism".

The numbers tell a different story, according to the recent polls and actual cost of living barometers.

Two-thirds of Kenyans reported their personal economic situation had worsened since the 2022 election, compared with just 12 per cent who said it had improved, the lowest improvement figure recorded since August 2025.

Only 29 per cent of Kenyans expressed positive trust in President Ruto, while 68 per cent said they had little or no trust in him, giving the Head of State a net trust rating of minus 39 per cent.

The discontent is geographically widespread. In Mt Kenya, 90 per cent of respondents said the country was headed in the wrong direction, followed by 89 per cent in Nairobi, 83 per cent in Lower Eastern and 82 per cent in South Rift, Ruto's political stronghold.

Even in the Northern and Central Rift regions, which recorded the strongest positive sentiment, only 38 per cent and 24 per cent respectively said the country was moving in the right direction.

The TIFA survey also found 65 per cent of Kenyans said their personal or family economic situation had worsened since the 2022 election.

Two-thirds mentioned the economy as the country's most serious problem, with unemployment and poverty cited by 44 per cent and inflation and high prices by 25 per cent.

 "With some two-thirds of Kenyans indicating a worsening of their economic situation, unless this changes over the next year, it could be challenging for all politicians seeking re-election, especially those identified with the incumbent government," TIFA said in its report.

 The Ruto administration has pointed to wage interventions as evidence of its commitment to workers.

 In May, the president announced a 12 per cent increase in minimum wages for general workers and a 15 per cent rise for agricultural workers, gazetted in June.

 A general labourer in major urban centres now earns Sh18,047.40 monthly.

 Francis Atwoli, secretary general of the Central Organisation of Trade Unions, welcomed the gazettement, saying the increment "is expected to provide much-needed relief to thousands of low-income workers and their families while stimulating domestic demand and supporting economic recovery."

The wage gains have been undercut by the fuel-driven cost-of-living surge and a wave of industrial action that has exposed the depth of worker frustration.

 Inflation has been unrelenting, rising for a second consecutive month to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.5 per cent in July, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said.

It has stayed above the midpoint of the CBK's 2.5–7.5 per cent target range for a fifth straight month.

Transportation remained the main source of pressure, with the division's inflation hitting 15.7 per cent over the year, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher and seeped into other prices.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation stood at 9 per cent, with kale, Irish potatoes and beef recording the sharpest monthly increases, while local flight fares rose 4.1 per cent and inter-town matatu fares climbed 2.1 per cent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, quickened to 3.4 per cent from 3.2 per cent in July, pointing to second-round effects from higher fuel costs.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 per cent in August, after a 0.2 per cent increase in the prior month.

 In May, a nationwide public transport strike over fuel price hikes paralysed major towns, with four people killed and about 30 injured in protests linked to the strike.

The Kenya Freedom Index, compiled by Odipo Dev and Amnesty International Kenya, documented 1,292 protests between January 2025 and June 2026, with 453 in the first half of 2026 alone, a 29 per cent increase year-on-year.

Aviation workers under the Kenya Aviation Workers Union downed tools on August 30, paralysing operations at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Moi International Airport, Eldoret International Airport and Kisumu International Airport.

The strike, which ended after a two-day return-to-work agreement, centred on a longstanding failure by the Kenya Airports Authority to finalise a new collective bargaining agreement and the airline's refusal to recognise the union.

"Members will not return to work until Jambojet recognises the union and until agreements are reached," KAWU Secretary General Moss Ndiema said at the time.

The nurses' strike, which began on July 29 and stretched beyond 40 days, has placed Kenya's public health system under severe strain.

The Kenya National Union of Nurses and Midwives is demanding the implementation of a 2017 collective bargaining agreement that remains unimplemented due to what the government has termed budgetary constraints.

"The problem goes beyond pay. delays in promotions, re-designation and implementation of agreed career guidelines have affected nurses professionally," KNUNM official Boaz Bachari said.

Doctors issued a seven-day ultimatum to the government, warning they would also down their tools in solidarity.

"Doctors cannot work without nurses. Doctors are now overburdened. We cannot continue like this," KMPDU Secretary-General Davji Atellah said.

The TIFA poll also found that trust in institutions remains below 40 per cent across the board. Only 27 per cent of Kenyans expressed trust in Parliament, 29 per cent in the presidency, and 29 per cent in the police.

Political analyst Barrack Muluka has publicly challenged Ruto to reconsider seeking a second term. "If a president who is sitting requires another term, and there's such a scale of abuse of human rights, such a scale of arbitrary killing, what is he going to do to the Republic of Kenya, to the citizens of Kenya?" Muluka asked on SPICE FM.

With inflation projected to close the year near 5.9 per cent and global headwinds from the Middle East conflict showing no sign of abating, the arithmetic for the Ruto administration remains unforgiving, analysts say.

The government can point to stabilised macroeconomic indicators, but the lived experience of most Kenyans  stagnant incomes, rising transport and food costs, and a pervasive sense that the country is on the wrong track, remains the defining political reality critics and the Opposition say.

 "Kenyans do not eat speeches, Kenyans want money in their pockets," said Nyandarua Senator John Methu, secretary general-designate of the Democratic Congress Party. "The economy must be felt in people's pockets, homes, shops, farms and workplaces. Don't just tell Kenyans the economy has grown."