Survey: Why Ruto's 24pc lead in 2027 race is more a warning than a comfort
Politics
By
David Njaaga
| May 14, 2026
If elections were held today, President William Ruto would win with just 24 per cent support, a new poll shows, as a divided opposition fails to consolidate behind a single challenger.
The TIFA Research survey, conducted between May 2 and 11 among 2,013 selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties, places Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) leader Kalonzo Musyoka second at 19 per cent, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i third at 14 per cent, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna fourth at 10 per cent and impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua fifth at nine per cent.
Ruto's 24 per cent marks his highest rating since TIFA began tracking presidential preferences in May 2025, when he stood at 18 per cent. Yet the figure also underlines the scale of work ahead.
Three in every four Kenyans currently prefer someone else or remain undecided.
Regionally, Ruto draws his strongest support from Northern Kenya at 48 per cent and Nyanza at 41 per cent, the latter a traditional Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) stronghold that the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement appears to have opened for him.
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In Mt Kenya, his ancestral political backyard, he draws just nine per cent, with Gachagua commanding 70 per cent recognition as the Kikuyu community's political reference point.
The undecided vote has narrowed to 15 per cent from 28 per cent a year ago, a crystallisation of preferences that TIFA says increases the importance of coalition-building ahead of 2027.
Ruto's preferred running mate among his own supporters is Deputy President Kithure Kindiki at 59 per cent, with Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga a distant second at 12 per cent.
ODM-affiliated figures attract negligible support for the position.
Among Ruto's supporters, 40 per cent say no opposition pairing appeals to them, reflecting confidence in the incumbent even as his national rating remains below a quarter of the electorate.