Why Kalonzo stands best chance of winning the next elections

Wiper Patriotic Front Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka.[File, Standard]

In less than 11 months, Kenyans will elect a new president. Presently, President William Ruto’s public popularity is nose-diving into self-destruction, and he needs help to stop relying on jokers for advice or listening to his own voice. He is desperate because, despite crisscrossing the country campaigning, people have refused to accept his claims that Kenya is doing well. He joins US President Donald Trump’s exclusive club of leaders who entertain beliefs in self-grandeur. All things remaining the same in the next 11 months therefore, Dr Ruto will lose the presidency.

The widespread belief that Ruto will lose, unless he adopts recent Tanzania and Zambia electoral strategies, attracts various extra-continental embassy officials who monitor political temperatures. They are fascinated by Edwin Sifuna and the rising number of presidential aspirants, among them being Ndindi Nyoro, the Kiharu MP, who at one time looked promising. Many MPs, Ndindi claims, asked him to guide them. He failed by dilly-dallying at crucial political moments, lost potential followers and he is desperately trying to recover his past.

Ndindi has four strategies. He wants to catch up with Sifuna, who politically zoomed past him by being decisive and focused on issues while he remained 'Kati Kati'. Second, he is asserting his ‘independence’ from Rigathi Gachagua’s dreams of being Murima’s 'king'. Third, he acquired a political party to enable him to have a seat at the national decision-making table because he is a party leader. Fourth and most important, Ndindi wants to expunge the widespread image that he is simply a well-facilitated ‘Kasongo’ proxy; but has problems expunging it. Although he has made some waves, he is below Sifuna and Gachagua. Of the two, Sifuna is ahead because he attracts the huge youth category and has emerged as the virtual 'Omwami' of the Mount Elgon zone, while Gachagua struggles to be Muthamaki in the Murima.

One opposition player, Kalonzo Musyoka, is rising as a possible compromise because the top crowd-rousers cancel each other out. He is, except for James Orengo, older, age-wise and politically, than the rest. He has a secretariat, is well exposed to world affairs, tries to be a serious thinker, and has a strong hold on Gachagua’s ‘cousins’. Not given to careless emotionalism, Kalonzo appears mature, reasonable, and does not threaten interests. He will win the presidency if the current political environment does not dramatically turn against him. Kalonzo's main challenge would be in constituting a credible government that exudes integrity and accommodates opposition prima donnas. Holders of office should believe in and practice the rule of law, protect and advance Kenya’s national assets and image instead of surrendering them to peculiar external and individual desires, and should not insult the intelligence of the Kenyans.

The choices available for Kalonzo to constitute a competent cabinet that, although political, still commands public trust are many. The challenge would be in his ability to balance who fits where and can deliver. While Sifuna would be the ideal Deputy President, Philip Kisia could become Head of Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet. Justin Muturi would do well as Foreign Affairs CS, while Richard Onyonka could go to Education. Wavinya Ndeti would handle water as Jimmi Wanjigi goes to the Treasury. David Maraga could enrich the AG’s office while Martha Karua distinguishes herself as National Assembly Speaker. As Eugene Wamalwa takes the Senate Speaker’s role, John ‘Sikuogopi’ Methu could supervise roads while Wambui Nyotu promotes culture and Pauline Njoroge takes the Information docket. Serious foot-soldier Ndegwa Njiru could be solicitor-general, and Jane Njeri (Gacheri) could audit the performance of public officials. Kipruto arap Kirwa would fit into the Comptroller of State House role as Gachagua becomes Kalonzo’s roving ambassador across the continents. Fred Matiang'i might do well at Defence, while David Musila would head Interior. Will Kalonzo cut it? Time will tell.