The six elephants in Oburu and Wanga closet

ODM leaders Gladys Wanga, Simba Arati, Oburu Oginga and Abdulswamad Nassir arrive at the 2026 Special Delegates Convention at the Jamhuri Park in Nairobi on March 17, 2026.[David Gichuru, Standard]

The violence that marred last week’s visit by the Linda Mwananchi leadership to Homa Bay has left me reeling with severe guilt. In fact, I have egg all over my face.

Since the chaos was reported, my friends have branded me a goon, a thug and a product of a ‘Zinjanthropus county’ defined by bad roads and lack of basic discipline.

Because I’m a son of the soil, I am expected to answer for poor infrastructure, every unruly crowd and every dirty gimmick staged by our local politicians from hell. Apparently, when mediocrity becomes a way of life for your leaders, your birthplace becomes evidence of character! 

It’s also quite something to discover that the intolerance of a few people is enough to indict a whole community’s dignity. But if preventing rival political camps from touring Luo Nyanza is deemed to be loyalty or a way to ‘pawa’ for ODM in 2027, then we need fewer loyalists and more common sense.

What’s even more worrying is that ODM is flying too close to the sun despite the tell-tales. Its wings will melt. Homa Bay has just shown that the party’s once-unquestioned dominance is no more. That ODM can repel rivals like Mr Edwin Sifuna and Mr Babu Owino, yet locals will still turn out to welcome them.

It means party officials have lost the ‘fear factor’ they wielded. Under Raila Odinga, defying ODM in Nyanza was suicidal. Now, by squandering its energy attacking Mr Sifuna all day long, the outfit is handing its ‘birthright’ to Linda Mwananchi. In fact, they are literally lionising the Nairobi senator.

The good news, however, is that ODM can still redeem itself by addressing the ‘six elephants’ in its closet.  First, some insiders have become a burden, and Dr Oburu must rein them in. The likes of chairperson Gladys Wanga, MPs Peter Kaluma, George Aladwa, our very own ‘Judas Iscariot’ and others whose public speeches have become proud and less persuasive, should rethink their messaging.

Second, the debate over the Deputy President slot is doing ODM no ‘PR’ favours. The more it demands the slot before formal negotiations with UDA have gained momentum, the more it reeks of desperation. That was never Mr Odinga’s style. The party must negotiate quietly and in good faith.

Third, ODM must find a worthy replacement for Mr Sifuna. Acting Secretary General Catherine Omanyo comes across as a ceremonial figure good at cutting ribbons rather than navigating the rough-and-tumble of politics. A party’s chief mobiliser can’t afford to flounder at the podium.

Fourth, the party shouldn’t behave as though it has acquired exclusive rights in the Kenya Kwanza administration. President Ruto’s administration serves us all regardless of our political affiliation. Thus, the few elements within ODM intoxicated by ‘being in government’ should go slow.

Another looming fire it must put out is the ‘tragedy’ awaiting some of its lieutenants at the ballot. With Mr Odinga out of the picture, many incumbents in Nyanza, Western and Coast have lost favour with the electorate. Without the enigma’s endorsement they rode on, they will fall by the wayside.

Finally, Dr Oburu should clear the air on the so-called ‘zoning’ debate. It is no secret that some ODM insiders are losing sleep over fears that UDA hopefuls could give them a run for their money in 2027. That explains why key officials want some electoral areas declared exclusive ODM zones.

To end the controversial ‘zoning’ debate, ODM should explain to aspirants and supporters why it feels insecure in its strongholds. If ODM and UDA are equal partners, why should the former shudder at competition? The moment aspirants feel the party is suffocating its own ‘democracy credentials’ with lugubrious strongman tactics, the outcomes will be catastrophic.

Luo Nyanza’s four counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori have a combined ‘war chest’ of about 2.16 million votes. That’s a significant bloc. The prospect of even half of these voters failing to turn up at polling stations on election day next August should worry Dr Oburu and Ms Wanga to the core.