Experts predict depressed rains from March to May in the Horn of Africa

A woman helps her husband walk in Kakwanyang village, Turkana County. [Mike Ekutan, Standard]

Climate experts have predicted below-normal rainfall for countries in the Greater Horn of Africa over the next three months.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) on Wednesday, February 22 said that parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda could experience depressed rainfall from March to May 2023.

This could be the sixth failed consecutive rainfall season, as the Horn of Africa grapples with a severe drought.

"The probability for drier than normal rainfall is also enhanced for parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and western South Sudan. On the other hand, wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania."

ICPAC also predicts that parts of Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, northern Somalia, northern-eastern and southern Ethiopia, northern and western Kenya, and parts of western Tanzania are likely to experience warmer than normal temperatures.

The climate monitoring centre has advised countries to take advantage of the rainfall, though little.

"Even if the general conditions for the season do not look favorable, people can still take advantage of rainfall. This is why I urge all to consult our weekly and monthly forecasts which have a high degree of predictability," ICPAC Director Dr. Guleid Artan said.

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and IGAD estimate that close to 23 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are food insecure, while 11 million livestock have died as a result of the prevailing drought.

IGAD Executive Secretary Dr Workneh Gebeyehu has appealed for "an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts before it's too late".

The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) reiterated the need to scale up humanitarian interventions, noting that Kenya is among the worst-hit countries in East Africa by drought.

The team met in Nairobi on Wednesday for the 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 63).

As of January 2023, some 4.35 million Kenyans were affected by drought, and over 960,000 children malnourished.

"This is the worst drought in four decades and there is a need to scale up the mitigation measures put in place," EAC, Arid, and Semi-Arid Lands and Regional Development Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Miano said in January.