Ruto putting roadblocks on bumpy road to Singapore

President William Ruto , Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki,Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi ,Kisumu Governor Prof Anyang Nyongo and other dignstiries during the launch of The National Conversation -Beyond 20230 by President William Ruto at KICC, Nairobi. August 12th,2026 [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

The much hyped  Beyond Vision 2030 conversation towards turning Kenya into Singapore’s peer is the latest of plans under President William Ruto’s administration, that yet again seek to redirect the country’s development trajectory even before the ink dries on his initial agenda.

And as the President is dreaming big, his planning and policy measures are turning these visions into pipe dreams.

According to experts who drafted the proposals on taking the country to Singapore status four basic fundamentals must be met that will propel the country to a developed nation status and none of these is big infrastructure where the President is putting all his eggs in.

Whereas the big infrastructure project are important, gamechangers are money in people's pockets - household incomes - education, health or nutrition and access to basic amenities such as clean water and sewerage facilities. These are the golden geese.

Amidst overhauls in the education and health sectors, whose benefits Kenyans are yet to see, restructuring of public assets through privatisation, and new taxes to finance his agenda, Kenyans are now expected to engage in a newer plan aimed at getting the country to Singapore levels.

The Vision 2060, which will be replacing Vision 2030, will now anchor the 'Singapore dream', moving the goalpost from Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), a hustler centric strategy, and the 10 year National Transformation Plan he unveiled less than a year ago.

While taking stock of Vision 2030, whose implementation deadline is in three years, Kenya’s shortcomings in achieving this goal were also laid bare.

Duke University professor Hiroyuki Hino, who is part of the appointed think-tank behind this new vision, noted how in the last 20 years, the average household income per person per day has grown from Sh291.20 (USD2.24) to Sh455 (USD 3.50).

He described this as a significant stride. However, for Kenya to reach the current Singapore status, household incomes need to grow 40 -fold.

Data presented by Hino showed that Singapore’s income per person exceeded Sh10.4 million (USD80,000) in 2025 compared to Kenya’s Sh260,000 (USD 2,000).

“Huge difference,” said Hino. “The fourth target, that is to raise the average household income per person to Singapore level, is much harder. This requires  income per person to grow by  more than 10 per cent per year for 35 years. That is a tall order,” he said.

While on that, Hino pointed out a fault with the country’s economic strategy that has its lenses focused on brick and mortar projects and less on people.

“Economic growth and large investment projects are important, However, a government is judged well by how it improves the economic and social well being of its citizens,” said Hino.

Yet, recent missteps by the Ruto government have placed insurmountable hurdles in the very path to Singapore.

The most glaring of all is the mess in the education sector, with frequent uncoordinated policy changes and inadequate funding negatively affecting learning and putting the future of Kenya's children in jeopardy.

Whereas the new Vision places huge emphasis on education as a key pillar of economic growth, Ruto's government has demonstrated lack of cohesion and empathy towards the country's poor.

In the last four years, primary and secondary schools have not received the full allocated funds under capitation, and they have had to do without essential learning and sustenance materials.

Last month, after the failure of a university funding model that was just months old, the government proposed yet another financing plan that is by all signs worse than the previous one.

Economist and senior lecturer at The University of Nairobi Prof Samuel Nyandemo, points to the shifting development goal posts in President Ruto’s economic strategy, saying it is all tied to politics.

“We cannot talk about Vision 2060 before we accomplish Vision 2030, and we evaluate outcomes of that vision. This is a tactical political maneuver to confuse Kenyans,” he says.

Nyandemo says these shifting goal posts are unnecessary and are meant to distract Kenyans and blindfold them that the government means well.

“You cannot keep shifting the goal posts. You used to talk about bottom-up, then came the Hustler concept, then Singapore,  and now all those have evaporated now you are selling vision 2060.  That is political rhetoric,” he told The Standard.

The National Transformation Plan is what anchors the Sh5 trillion National Infrastructure Fund (NIF) and Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) that paved way for the auction of public assets.

Then, the President spoke of how for far too long, Kenya's ambition has been held hostage by small thinking and ordinary expectations.

“But that era must now be consigned to the past,” he said. “The National Infrastructure Fund is therefore more than a financing tool. It is a generational strategy, preserving value, mobilising capital, accelerating delivery, and ensuring Kenya becomes stronger, wealthier, and more competitive. “

At the launch of the Beyond Vision 2030 conversation on Wednesday, the grim reality of the Singapore dream settled in as it was revealed that Kenya will need to grow its income per person 40 times for it to be comparable to the Asian country.

In what was President Ruto’s strategy as unveiled before Parliament in his State of the Nation address last year, is the NIF, which is touted as the pathway to Singapore.

NIF, which has been funded with over Sh300 billion from the sale of the part of the government’s shareholding in Safaricom and Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC), is meant to pool private capital for investments in roads, airports, dams, electricity transmission, among other infrastructure projects.

But despite the new goal posts being erected by the President, the country is still facing the very challenges he promised to eradicate once in office.

A major one is income inequality, which Hino said Kenya must  tackle in order to realise the Singapore dream.

“Inequality in Kenya is high. The poorest 20 per cent in Kenya receive only five per cent of national income whereas the richest 20 per cent receive half,” he said.

“Addressing the imbalance would raise the income of ordinary households and bring Kenya closer to the income growth trajectory of Singapore we are looking for.”

Shrinking payslips has been a permanent feature in many household for the past few years putting in jeopardy the very pillar that is Ruto's dream.

Apart from household incomes, Hino listed nutrition (particularly addressing stunted growth among children), access to basic services (such as water and sanitation) where Kenya lags at 60 per cent compared to Singapore 100 per cent, and education, as the key areas Kenya needs to address to be at par with the current Singapore.

To achieve the Singapore dream, Hino said Kenya must accelerate economic growth, tighten fiscal policy, increase investment in infrastructure, essential services, and bring down public debt, now spiraling above Sh13 trillion, under control.

“It must also continue to support private enterprises. Reliance on the private sector has been the hallmark of Singapore’s development,” he said.

However, various reports paint a picture of Kenya going in the opposite direction, with indicators pointing to a declining standard of living.

Latest research from the World Bank, Worldpanel by Numerator, and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) speaks of growing poverty levels and the telltale signs that Kenya’s middle-class society is indeed shrinking.

The 2026 Economic Survey Report by KNBS, released in April, shows that real wages had been declining in the years leading up to 2025, highlighting how workers’ incomes struggled to keep pace with rising prices.

And in June this year, research by Worldpanel by Numerator showed that many shoppers are now making more frequent trips to retail stores, with their spending shifting towards the kadogo economy rather than bulk purchases.

This coupled with the latest UN Food and Agriculture Organisation report which stated more than 43.9 million Kenyans cannot afford a healthy diet, a rise of 9.6 million since 2017, paints a gloomy picture.

Economist Patrick Muinde, an economist, likens this to a shrinking middle class. He says this is the section of society whose success denotes economic growth.

“Across most economies and development metrics, the middle class are normally the ones who frequent supermarkets and shopping malls. And within any economy, that is the best population for driving growth,” he says.

“The fact that we are seeing people shifting to more localised shops or mini-supermarkets within their residences is also an indication of the shrinking or declining middle class.”

 At  a glance

In September 2022, the Kenya Kwanza Administration came into office with a commitment to transform the economy through the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), geared towards economic turnaround through a value chain approach

The agenda targets sectors with the highest impact to drive economic recovery and growth

BETA is the fourth and final five-year medium term plan under Vision 2030, and ends in 2027