Runoff election between Ruto and ODM leader likely in 2027

President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga at a past event. [File, Standard]

I dare say that those who can grasp the political future will eat its fruit. This is because as the country approaches the 2027 general election, the political terrain is already revealing signs of a deeply fragmented race, and it's almost certain to culminate in a runoff.

While the forces at play are complex, it is clear that no candidate will secure the constitutionally mandated 50%+1 vote in the first round.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is preparing to field Raila Odinga in the 2027 elections, holding firm to the belief that Baba is far from a spent force. Like a vintage firearm, Raila's value only deepens with time, an enduring icon in Kenya's political legacy.

Raila's anticipated candidacy is not a mere continuation of his political legacy, but a calculated move. His presence on the ballot will draw a substantial share of votes from across the country, particularly in Nyanza, Western Kenya, and the Coast.

But why does this make a first-round victory for any candidate highly improbable? Already, Western Kenya, traditionally a swing region, is more divided than ever.

The Luhya vote is splintered between Raila, Ruto, and Rigathi Gachagua, with emerging parties like the Democratic National Alliance party and Democracy for Citizens Party competing for influence.

With people like George Natembeya coming up, it is certain that for the first time, the Luhya voters will force a runoff, rather than merely serving as a coalition bargaining chip.

That's not all; Kalonzo Musyoka's political future remains uncertain, but his eventual alignment will be pivotal. While he has signalled intention to run independently, historical patterns suggest he may gravitate toward either Raila or Ruto.

Kalonzo's political DNA leans toward Ruto, yet his grassroots support is deeply embedded within Raila's base. Whether by design or necessity, Kalonzo's direction will likely reinforce the inevitability of a runoff.

What about the Mount Kenya vote? You may ask. The Mount Kenya vote, long considered a monolithic bloc, is showing signs of internal fracture. Mount Kenya East, comprising Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi, is increasingly leaning toward Ruto, while a big chunk of the remaining Mount Kenya, under Gachagua's influence, is attempting to consolidate its base.

The division of "house of mumbi" undermines the historical unity that has often delivered decisive victories.

There is another vote basket, the Rift Valley. See, the Rift Valley is no longer immune to fragmentation. While Ruto retains significant support, Gachagua and other emerging leaders are peeling off this region. This dilution of votes in what was once a guaranteed base adds to the likelihood of a runoff.

Kenya's youth, particularly Gen Z, represent a volatile but potentially transformative demographic, but their political engagement remains uncertain. However, if they register and vote in numbers, they could disrupt traditional voting patterns.

Some political pundits will argue that with political coalitions and alliances, runoffs are an impossibility. While that was true in the past, political coalitions are likely to be weaker than ever come 2027.

Personal ambition and pride among presidential hopefuls will prevent the emergence of a unified opposition candidate. This proliferation of candidates will split votes across regions and demographics, making a first-round victory nearly impossible.

Finally, even though the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission could play a pivotal role regulating the number of presidential candidates, the ballot will still be crowded. Understand that in 2027, some candidates will run strategically to spoil votes in strongholds, further ensuring a runoff.

That is why I believe that all signs point to a rerun between Raila and Ruto. Both are seasoned politicians with national reach and deep political machinery.

Here will be another complication. A runoff also opens the door to unexpected outcomes; voters may reject the incumbent in favour of change.

Dr Ndonye is the Dean of Kabarak University's School of Music and Media