Voters are now wiser; it will not be business as usual in 2027

Police officers guard ballot papers at Mvita tallying centre in Mombasa. [File, Standard]

There are very interesting developments on the political front. The United Opposition is chipping off its pillars one after the other. At the same time, the UDA-ODM government is harbouring in-house suspicions about who intends to bolt out of the broad-based government. The common factor in all the happenings in this garden of political shame is the gaze on the 2027 General Election.

I call it a garden of political shame because election campaign rhetoric is back to the good guys versus the bad guys. It is back to ethnic mobilisation as a major factor in choosing a candidate. After all, the fallacious argument goes, an election is about numbers. Everything else is hot air. So what will make 2027 unique from previous elections?

We are in a stage of political wits. Everyone is playing very cleverly and doing everything to throw their opponents under the bus. The stage is crucial because political actors are in high spin to win public confidence as well as men and women of note into their respective camps. Campaign teams are sharpening their tools. The early birds have already begun generating fake stories and circulating them to unsuspecting audiences.

If 2027 is to be unique, four emerging lessons from past elections may, yes, I mean may, influence a new political chapter in voter behaviour. Nothing is static in Kenyan politics.

First, very few Kenyans don't know that politicians can lie, holding the Bible. Only a few elected leaders return to their voters with their heads held high, having performed beyond reasonable doubt after the end of their terms. Majority of them appeal for more time, some of them, as we were told by the Executive, having taken advantage of parliamentary privileges to corruptly enrich themselves.

The good news is that now Kenyans know they can be fooled. They can be played. They can be manipulated. Out of this experience, I believe many Kenyans will be highly critical of promises as a basis for voting.

Second, voters with either rally behind outspoken upcoming leaders like Edwin Sifuna or a candidate with a proven track record will be voted in against all odds. The older folks in politics should realise that being "nice", having the money or moving the masses with unparalleled oratory skills will not be good enough. The size of rallies will only be an indicator of popularity, but not a guarantee of ballot support. The odds will include coming from a small ethnic group given our propensity towards tribal mentality.

Otherwise, I don't see how a candidate without a strong service delivery record will win the presidential election in a fair, credible, and transparent process, given the fog of disillusionment across the country over the current state of affairs.

The monumental challenges facing education and health, for example, paint the current regime in a bad light. Unless extraordinary efforts are made in the government service delivery before the 2027 elections, especially in the two ministries, it is hard to imagine many voters wishing a second term for the broad-based government.

Third, the 'United Opposition' who conduct themselves as people out of government rather than as an alternative waiting to unseat the incumbent, are laying eggs for the broad-based government to hatch in 2027. The egos are up, the vision for a better Kenya is lost, and they are preying on each other as if they are visitors in Kenyan politics. We have been here before. The lesson for 2027 is that Kenyans have been disappointed before, and so this time, those voting on the Opposition side will be ruthless with ego-driven parties and their candidates.

Lastly, with a bit of space to organise themselves, young people, including the thousands who are jobless, will read the riot act in 2027. They will field their candidates and turn out in numbers to vote for one of their own. The aftermath will be unbearable for the older generation in and out of legislative houses. Having been brutalised in the streets, the elected young people will introduce reforms never seen before in Kenya.

Dr Mokua is Executive Director of Loyola Centre for Media and Communication