Ruto dumps hustlers vibe for Singapore dream in Sh5tr gamble

President William Ruto during inspection of the Mau Mau Road Lot 1A and Lot 1B in Lari, Kiambu County, on March 5, 2025. [File, Standard]

President William Ruto has abandoned the grassroots economic model that won him power, and replaced it with a high-stakes strategy to attract private capital for megaprojects, a dramatic shift revealed in a 2026 budget document that shows the soaring cost of his original promises.

The Draft 2026 Budget Policy Statement, reviewed by The Standard, formally moves Ruto government’s focus from “Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda” (BETA) to what it calls a “more targeted phase” prioritising “capital, talent, technology, and infrastructure.”

Analysts say the pivot contained in the document released recently by the National Treasury signals that Ruto’s administration, racing to show progress before the 2027 election, can no longer afford the broad-based subsidies and transfers at the heart of its 2022 “Hustler” manifesto. 

An analysis by Parliament’s budget office in 2022 soon after President Ruto ascended to power estimated the full five-year cost of those promises at Sh2.67 trillion what is emerging to be a fiscal hurdle given the country’s constrained revenues and towering debt service obligations.

“The government is transitioning into a more targeted phase of transformation that places greater emphasis on scaling capital, talent, technology, and infrastructure as the key drivers of Kenya’s next growth frontier,” the 128-page 2026 budget blueprint states, marking a clear doctrinal shift according to experts. 

Analysts said that for Kenyans, the change means a move away from direct state support — like the Hustler Fund’s small loans and fertiliser subsidies — and towards an economic model betting that large-scale infrastructure will create jobs and lower living costs indirectly. 

Success they however cautioned is uncertain as it hinges on attracting unprecedented levels of private investment.

“The 2026 budget is a decisive shift from stabilisation to a growth phase funded by innovative, off-budget vehicles,” said Ian Njoroge, an independent economist. “It’s a strategic attempt to fund massive projects without triggering a debt crisis. The gamble is whether this leveraged capital arrives and delivers tangible results fast enough.”

The centre-piece of Ruto’s new model is the newly approved National Infrastructure Fund (NIF), designed as a state-owned company to finance roads, dams, and energy projects. Its core mechanism according to the 2026 budget outline is leverage. This means for every shilling of public money from asset sales or savings, the government aims to attract Sh10 from private investors like pension funds and private equity.

All proceeds from Ruto’s ongoing privatisation drive—including the partial sales of Safaricom and Kenya Pipeline Company—will be “ring-fenced” for this fund and a new Sovereign Wealth Fund, the government says. 

The budget confirms the Safaricom sale to Vodafone including an upfront payment of Sh40.2 billion for future dividends. The budget repeatedly cites “constrained fiscal space” and “revenue shortfalls.” 

The original promises under the BETA model relied heavily on recurrent public spending, but the budget shows total expenditure will still rise to Sh4.73 trillion in the 2026/27 fiscal year, requiring a deficit of Sh1.1 trillion.

Ruto has recently argued the economy is now stable enough for this next phase, citing growth of 4.7 per cent in 2024 and projected 5.3 per cent expansion next year.

“The evidence is clear, evidence of promises made and promises kept,” he said in November, downplaying cost-of-living pressures.

The budget outlines a new roadmap focused on transforming Kenya “from a net importer to a net exporter” and developing “efficient transport and logistics infrastructure.”