Nyanza political landscape shifts as veterans return post-Raila

Former Nyatike MP Omondi Anyanga leads UDA membership recruitment drive in Ndiwa.  [File, Standard]

Former political giants in Nyanza are slowly making a comeback into mainstream politics after the demise of ODM leader Raila Odinga, setting the stage for major battles in 2027.

The resurgence of former political giants, including those who unsuccessfully tried to challenge Raila’s dominance in the region, is reportedly fueled by a perception that the incumbents’ chances of recapturing their seats were weakened by the former prime minister’s death.

Former Migori Governor Okoth Obado’s dramatic return alongside ex-Kisumu Governor Jack Ranguma and other once-dominant figures has also sparked intense speculation that the 2027 political contests in Nyanza likely revolve less around party loyalty and more around individual clout.

The November 27 Kasipul by-election offered ODM a temporary boost, but independent candidate Phillip Aroko’s strong performance signalled a new reality.

Aroko’s show in the mini poll appears to have emboldened candidates who now say that challenging ODM in Luo Nyanza in the 2027 polls would not be a political death sentence after all.

Beyond familiar names, attention has shifted to a new cadre of emerging power brokers whose influence could shape the region’s political posture in the post-Raila era.

Analysts say the question is no longer whether the broad-based government alliance will hold, but who will command the region’s voice going forward, and whether President William Ruto or the opposition will reap from the new scenario.

Mr Obado returned to the spotlight by firing a warning shot at Treasury CS John Mbadi. “When I was selling UDA in this region, you hunted me down and hurled insults. Now you are working with them, yet still blaming others. ODM is dead,” Mr Obado declared at a women’s empowerment meeting in Uriri.

In Migori, aspirants must court Obado and former Nyatike MP Omondi Anyanga, both viewed as strategic gatekeepers. Across Kisumu, Homa Bay and Siaya, figures such as ODM leader Oburu Oginga, Prof. Nyong’o and former Homa Bay County Secretary Isaiah Ogwe are increasingly being mentioned as the new custodians of political legitimacy in Raila’s absence.

Former Migori ODM Vice Chairman William Odhil urged the party to read the signs of the times and bring everyone, including the youth, on board.

He, however, said candidates will have to prove their worth rather than rely on party endorsements.

“Where we are now, it will be the candidate to sweat it out and win the people’s confidence. For us in Migori, we are waiting for Mr Anyanga to give us direction. He is the seniormost politician in our county,” Mr Odhil told the press.

Moses Bala, a resident of Homa Bay, said Oburu stands a better chance of giving political direction in the Nyanza region.

“Oburu cannot command politics the way Raila did. But he stands a better chance of having political legitimacy because he is the leader of ODM,” Bala said.

But lawyer Kennedy Ondiek, who is a former MCA for Kibiri ward in Homa Bay, said it is prudent for ODM politicians to maintain the unity they had before Raila’s death.

“ODM members, we should continue with the unity Raila left us with. Too much dissent will not help us because ODM can go far,” Ondiek said.

What remains clear is that ODM will not walk into 2027 with its traditional advantage. Raila’s absence will lead to voter apathy.

“The scales are shifting because Raila is no more,” Bala added.

In Homa Bay, Governor Gladys Wanga has clashed with her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, who defied ODM and campaigned against its candidate, Boyd Were, ahead of the Kasipul parliamentary by-election. “There’s no decree anywhere that when an incumbent dies, they must be succeeded by a relative,” Magwanga said in defence of his support for Aroko.

Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero is positioning himself for a major re-entry, and analysts warn the pairing of Magwanga, Kidero, and other veteran politicians in Homa Bay could pose a serious challenge to Wanga’s re-election bid. “Without Raila, many incumbents will struggle,” said political analyst Paul Okinyi.

In Migori, Uriri MP Mark Nyamita is up against Governor Ochilo Ayacko. Observers say Nyamita could spring the greatest upset because Ochillo was a beneficiary of an ODM direct nomination ticket ahead of the 2022 General Election.

Meanwhile, Siaya Governor James Orengo will face former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, while in Kisumu, Ranguma is already mobilising his supporters. Senator Tom Ojienda has also positioned himself for a possible run as Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o exits the stage, having served for two terms.

But the most intriguing shift is happening behind the scenes, where opinion shapers, not necessarily candidates, are emerging as the new centres of gravity.