Poll: Kenyans worse off since Ruto took over

Dr Tom Wolf, Research analyst at TIFA addresses the media during the release of Public opinion data on the 2022 Elections by TIFA at the Heron Portico hotel, Nairobi. May 18th, 2022 [File, Standard]

A majority of Kenyans are facing harsh economic conditions, a new opinion survey has revealed.

The latest poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) has laid bare the suffering many Kenyans have experienced since President William Ruto assumed power two and a half years ago.

The poll found that a majority of Kenyans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. Released yesterday, the survey shows that 75 per cent of Kenyans, when asked to compare their current economic situation with what it was three years ago-just before the presidential election-said their quality of life had worsened. Only 10 per cent reported an improvement, while 13 per cent said it had remained the same.

Among those who reported a deterioration in their quality of life, respondents in Lower Eastern and Nyanza topped the list at 82 per cent, followed by Nairobi and Mt Kenya at 79 per cent.

Reflecting the voting patterns of the 2022 elections, the lowest negative responses came from Central Rift and Northern Kenya (61 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively).

"At the same time, in none of the nine zones do even one-fifth of respondents say that their economic state has improved since 2022-the highest proportions being in Central Rift and Northern zones (19 per cent in both)," the survey noted.

As a result of personal and family economic challenges, 86 per cent of Kenyans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction. Interestingly, 38 per cent of Kenyans who had suffered economically still felt the country was on the right track.

The report noted that 36 per cent of those who believed the country was headed in the right direction had reported economic improvement.

While the survey indicated that President Ruto received some credit for the continuation and launch of infrastructure projects, 46 per cent of respondents could not name any such achievements.

Eighteen per cent said Ruto had failed to reduce the cost of living, while 11 per cent cited his failure to provide effective national leadership.

However, 14 per cent of respondents said Ruto had made progress in infrastructure development. Five per cent credited the Kenya Kwanza administration with reducing and stabilising the cost of living, and 4 per cent noted achievements in agriculture.

Corruption, poor leadership, tribalism, ethnic tensions, and the high cost of living were identified as key factors undermining Kenya's development.

According to the poll, 42 per cent of Kenyans viewed corruption as the main obstacle to development, followed by poor leadership at 30 per cent. Six per cent believed ethnicity was a barrier to progress.

Although President Ruto's key objective in bringing ODM leader Raila Odinga into the government was to promote unity and stability, the TIFA survey revealed that, based on economic perceptions, 54 per cent of Kenyans were opposed to the broad-based government.

Only 22 per cent supported the broad-based government, with most of that support coming from Ruto's Central Rift stronghold.

"Across the country, support for the Broad-Based Government is highest in the President's home zone of Central Rift (37%) and lowest in the Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern zones-the home areas of his former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, respectively (13 per cent and 12 per cent)," the survey noted.

In Gachagua and Kalonzo's home regions, 58 per cent (Mt Kenya) and 72 per cent (Lower Eastern) were opposed to the broad-based arrangement.

In Nyanza, 49 per cent were opposed, 25 per cent supported it, and 26 per cent had no opinion. In the Coast region, 57 per cent were opposed, 22 per cent supported it, and 21 per cent had no opinion.

The broad-based arrangement was also unpopular in Nairobi, where 57 per cent were opposed, 21 per cent supported it, and 22 per cent had no opinion. In Western Kenya, 50 per cent were opposed, 21 per cent supported it, and 29 per cent either had no opinion or did not respond.

"Based on such economic and 'direction' findings, it is not surprising, therefore, that fewer than one-quarter of Kenyans express support for the BBG. Though given the continuing influence of its major figures (Ruto and Raila), it is also not surprising that, along with Northern, Kenyans in their home areas (Central Rift and Nyanza, respectively) give it the highest levels of such support," the report stated.

According to the survey, one reason for the lack of support for the broad-based government is that Raila Odinga failed to bring along his full ODM 'entourage' in endorsing the BBG arrangement.

"This has been seen in the protestations of such leading figures as Nyanza governors Peter Anyang' Nyong'o (Kisumu) and James Orengo (Siaya), and Nairobi Senator James Sifuna-even as Odinga continues to assert that, as his party's Secretary-General, 'Sifuna speaks for ODM'. Whether such leaders know-or at least expect-that Odinga will have rejoined the opposition by 2027 to campaign against Ruto must remain a matter of speculation," the report added.

At the same time, 31 per cent of BBG opponents believe Raila should return to the opposition and contest the presidency, while 22 per cent hope he will rejoin the opposition to support another candidate against Ruto.

Conversely, 38 per cent of BBG supporters believe Raila should support Ruto's re-election, while 25 per cent think he should contest the presidency himself.

"Even more than one-third of BBG supporters expect that he will have turned his back on the current BBG arrangement by rejoining the opposition-whether he contests or not (13% + 25% = 38%). For their part, slightly more than half of BBG opponents believe he will have rejoined the opposition by 2027, whether or not he actually contests the presidency again (22% + 31% = 53%)," the survey concluded.

Regarding confidence in the integrity of the 2027 elections, half of Kenyans interviewed by TIFA said they were not confident at all, while only 20 per cent believed the polls would be free and fair.

The poll noted that this sentiment was aligned with views on the broad-based government, with nearly three times as many BBG supporters expressing strong confidence in the 2027 election process compared to BBG opponents (38% vs. 13%).

The survey found that 38 per cent of pro-BBG supporters were very confident the polls would be free and fair, while only 13 per cent of anti-BBG respondents shared that view.

Meanwhile, 59 per cent of BBG critics said they had no confidence at all in the credibility of the upcoming election, and 48 per cent did not respond to the question.

"With regard to the next election, the level of doubt regarding its expected integrity should be cause for concern across the political divide (as well as for incoming senior IEBC officials)," the report warned. "These doubts are also evident in the figures related to the perceived integrity of previous elections, even if those who support the BBG are rather more optimistic about both past and future contests."

On the perceived integrity of the last three presidential elections, BBG supporters held a more favourable view. Nearly half said all three official winners had received the most votes and met the 50%+1 threshold.

However, 31 per cent said the polls had been free and fair, while 32 per cent felt none of the elections had been credible. Among anti-BBG supporters, 36 per cent said the elections were not credible, while 47 per cent of Ruto-Raila supporters believed they were.