Critics predict clouds over State House, Ruto forecasts long reign

President William Ruto and Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at State House in Mombasa county. [PCS]

Sometime last July, just days after former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and President William Ruto shook hands at the stoop of the Kenyatta International Convention Centre, Siaya Governor James Orengo raised an alarm that refuses to be silenced.

Uniting with Ruto, a passionate Orengo argued, was a bad idea.

"I want to speak to those rushing to join President Ruto. He is a passing cloud, and I say this without any fear of contradiction," the Siaya governor asserted, adding that the President had run out of funds to implement any meaningful projects and had fallen out with Western powers.

A video clip of Orengo's remarks has circulated widely in recent days.

The term "a passing cloud" was last used to describe the late former President Daniel Moi by a group of Central Kenya politicians, who predicted he would not last as President.

They were wrong. Moi would go on to rule the nation for 24 years, since 1978, becoming Kenya's longest-serving President.

Orengo could be right or wrong about his assessment of Ruto, especially if he meant to imply that the Head of State would serve a single term.

Generation Z

"I believe Orengo made those remarks due to the anti-government clamour at the time and the protests led by Generation Z," said Dr Charles Ng'ang'a, a lecturer at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.

Orengo is not the only one drawing such conclusions.

Bitter about his impeachment last October, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua believes Ruto is a "one-term President" and has coined the slogan, "Kasongo, one-term," which he repeats at rallies.

"If Raila tells Ruto to wipe his feet, he will, because he has become like a patient in the intensive care unit on life support. Raila is Ruto's life-support machine," Gachagua said last month in Machakos, a message he echoes at every opportunity.

It is not just Ruto's political foes who think his days are numbered; would-be allies are equally scathing.

Months ago, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna argued that the Commander-in-Chief was too weak to be re-elected, and it would not matter if Raila's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) backed him.

Such conclusions are based on Ruto's perceived unpopularity among youthful Kenyans, whose movement caused seismic shifts last year.

A different narrative emerges among the "kumi-bila-break" (ten-without-break) crusaders - pro-Ruto politicians, mostly from Raila's native backyard in the former Nyanza Province. They are firmly convinced that Ruto will serve two consecutive terms, and thus he will not be a passing cloud, in every sense of the phrase.

Since Orengo made his statement, Ruto has strengthened his alliance with Raila, signing a cooperation agreement last month.

Raila's confidants have all but guaranteed they would back the Head of State's re-election bid. Members of the former premier's family have even dropped hints suggesting this.

Last week, Raila's wife, Ida Odinga, spoke of her own "terms" for the broad-based government, and by extension, the Head of State, describing it as a "drizzle."

"Use this drizzle to plant. Don't wait for the rains so that we can plant. Whatever you can get with the current drizzle, use it... or are you waiting for the heavy rains? When they come, we will plant, but we will also plant using the light rains," she said in Migori.

Her remarks were likely aimed at rallying support for the broad-based partnership between Ruto and Raila, during the light rains. However, they could inadvertently suggest that Raila, the "heavy rains," has not yet called it quits and might be preparing for a sixth bid at the presidency.

"It's possible that Raila could vie. We cannot rule it out," said Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, a Raila ally.

A Raila candidacy would complicate matters for Ruto, who hopes to inherit his new ally's traditional strongholds and gain a head start in the 2027 General Election.

There exists an untested perception that Ruto has lost ground in Mt Kenya, and he is eager to make up for these losses by winning over other regions.

However, such plans would be thwarted if Raila were to drop Ruto and run for president. This would leave Ruto more vulnerable than his critics believe him to be.

"Mt Kenya has drifted. If Raila drifts too, it would damage Ruto's chances. But this game is still 50-50, and there is a chance Ruto could be re-elected," said Timothy Onduru, a history lecturer at Moi University.

"Anything is still possible, but it's too early to make predictions. Next year would be a better time, given that most political formations will have taken shape by then," added Dr Onduru.

Political move

Raila has largely kept everyone, including Ruto, guessing about his next political move. He is non-committal about supporting Ruto, with senior Orange Democratic Movement officials asserting that the party will field a candidate in the next election.

In the past four consecutive polls, that candidate has been Raila. Even at 80 (82 by 2027), the former premier appears the most likely ODM flag-bearer.

"It's possible that ODM could field a different candidate for the presidency. I foresee him endorsing a candidate as the flag-bearer of a new coalition. But that candidate cannot be Ruto, who will lose the election even if Raila supports him," said Amisi.

Dr Ng'ang'a disagreed, stating that it was "impossible" for any other presidential candidate to emerge from ODM.

"Raila is the king in ODM, and no one would dare challenge him. Even if he were to agree to nominations, he would just be playing allies. There is a 50-50 chance Raila could vie, but it could be seen as a divide-and-rule tactic against the opposition," said Ng'ang'a.

Thanks to Orengo and other anti-broad-based politicians, Ruto has been prevented from counting his chickens just yet.

However, the conclusion that the President would lose the 2027 polls if Raila deserts him may seem like a mockery of the Head of State's political career, which has featured no election losses. Ruto's rise from humble beginnings and his ability to battle great odds to claim the country's most consequential job are undeniable.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a Ruto critic, agreed with this assessment, stating: "The fact that someone is doing badly today does not mean they will continue to do badly tomorrow."

Come up

"We don't know the different formations that will exist. Maybe if Raila deserts Ruto, he will come up with new strategies and partners, change his policies, and emerge as the darling of the masses," said Mwangangi.

Like Moi, whose detractors had underestimated his 23-year political career, including his time as a lawmaker before and after independence and as vice president, Ruto has been in politics for more than three decades.

Ruto, an outsider in the establishment with clear succession plans, made his way into the inner sanctum of power. His first major political move came when he joined the controversial Youth for Kanu '92 group, which rallied support for Moi's re-election bid in 1992.

Five years later, he beat the President's preferred candidate, Reuben Chesire, to win the Eldoret North parliamentary seat, a position he held until 2013, when he became Deputy President.

Over the years, he has served as a Cabinet minister, assistant minister, and Kanu secretary-general. He played a key role in the Raila-led camp that rejected a government-sponsored draft constitution, which was defeated in a 2005 referendum. Five years later, he led a futile opposition against the current constitution.

His political influence has been evident in the past four elections, where he has stirred up serious political storms.

In 2007, Ruto was a key player in Raila's camp, delivering significant votes for the latter.

In Ruto's words, he "made Uhuru President" in 2013 and 2017. Arguably, it was Ruto's departure from ODM that dealt the final blow to Raila's chances in those years.

Perhaps the strongest evidence that Ruto is no pushover is the fact that he defeated Raila, a State-backed candidate, in the last election - regardless of the slim margin. Confident in his chances, Ruto recently declared that unseating him would not be easy.

"I am well-prepared for the duel ahead," Ruto said during the burial of John Koech, a former Cabinet minister.

It becomes more difficult if Raila decides not to vie for the presidency and instead backs Ruto. With the former premier in Ruto's corner, the Head of State's allies see no path to the State House for the opposition.