Ruto, Opposition set for a rematch in next month's by-elections

IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon during a media briefing at PrideInn Paradise-Shanzu in Mombasa County on July 19, 2025. [File, Standard]

Preparations for a second-round duel between the broad-based government and the opposition have begun in earnest ahead of the February 26 by-elections.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has set the stage for what promises to be a high-stakes contest between President William Ruto’s broad-based outfit and an opposition still reeling from electoral setbacks suffered in the November 2025 mini-polls.

The fresh round of by-elections will be held to fill vacancies in the Isiolo South parliamentary seat, as well as MCA positions in West Kabras Ward in Malava, Kakamega County, and Muminji and Evurore wards in Mbeere North, Embu County.

On Friday, the IEBC invited applications from organisations and media practitioners seeking accreditation as election observers for the by-elections. This comes weeks after the commission appointed returning officers and deputy returning officers for the polls.

“All interested organisations must submit their applications through the IEBC Accreditation Management System at https://ams.iebc.or.ke,” the notice read.

The move by the electoral agency signals the start of intense campaigns in both camps. While the broad-based outfit is seeking to replicate its first-round performance—where it clinched the majority of seats—the opposition is keen to redeem itself and demonstrate that Kenya Kwanza’s success in the November mini-polls was driven by bribery, voter intimidation and alleged police complacency.

Key battlegrounds between the government and opposition are expected to be the MCA seats in West Kabras Ward in Malava and Muminji and Evurore wards in Mbeere North.

Step down

In Kakamega County, the West Kabras Ward MCA seat fell vacant after David Ndakwa, who was elected on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, resigned to contest the Malava parliamentary seat, which he later won.

In Mbeere North, Muminji Ward MCA Newton Kariuki, elected on a Devolution Empowerment Party ticket, stepped down to vie for the parliamentary seat. The same applied to Evurore Ward MCA Duncan Mbui.

In these areas, the opposition, comprising the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), Wiper Democratic Movement, Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K), People’s Liberation Party (PLP) and the Democratic Party (DP), will be seeking a strong showing.

The coalition is intent on avoiding the narrow defeats witnessed in the last mini-polls. In November, UDA’s Ndakwa garnered 21,564 votes against DAP-K’s Seth Panyako, who secured 20,210, a margin of just 1,354 votes.

While Malava has a history of closely contested races, the opposition blamed its loss on the government’s campaign machinery and the alleged inducements deployed.

The government side in Malava, led by UDA and ODM, mounted a high-level, well-funded campaign spearheaded by President Ruto’s aide, Farouk Kibet.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa were also actively involved. UDA leaders spent months in the region launching development projects, appointing election losers to ambassadorial positions, attending fundraisers for churches, women’s groups and boda boda riders, and hosting delegations in Nairobi.

In Mbeere North, Leo wa Muthende narrowly defeated DP’s Newton Kariuki, securing 15,802 votes against Kariuki’s 15,308, a difference of just 494 votes.

In Isiolo South, the seat fell vacant following the death of Mohamed Tubi, who was elected in August 2022 on a Jubilee Party ticket. The outcome of the contest is expected to signal the constituency’s political direction ahead of the 2027 election.

Through the Friday Gazette notice, IEBC chairperson Erastus Ethekon said the accreditation exercise aims to facilitate transparent, credible and accountable electoral processes during the upcoming polls.

He reiterated that no manual or physical applications would be accepted, emphasising the commission’s shift to digital systems. The deadline for submission of applications has been set for Friday, February 6, 2026, at 5pm.

The electoral agency has also published a detailed electoral calendar for 2026, stipulating that political parties intending to participate must submit details of party primaries and certified membership lists by January 2, 2026, as well as the names and specimen signatures of authorised officials by January 13.

Parties are also required to have concluded their primaries, resolved internal disputes and submitted the names of nominated candidates by January 16.

“Independent candidates shall not have been members of any political party at least three months immediately before the date of the by-elections and must submit their names and symbols by January 2,” IEBC said in an earlier notice.