Invest in our children now to unlock the path to prosperity

A group of children inside of a destroyed school. [GettyImages]

In Kenya, children make up 41.3 per cent of the population totaling roughly 22 million children. The child population is projected to peak in 2047, reaching 28 million. This impending demographic shift offers Kenya a critical opportunity: by investing in its children, Kenya can secure a strong future workforce and capitalise on the demographic dividend.

On November 20, UNICEF launched its annual flagship publication, ‘The State of the World’s Children 2025: Ending Child Poverty’. The findings are sobering - globally, one in every five children—an estimated 412 million—endure extreme monetary poverty, surviving on less than three dollars a day. The report reveals children are more than twice as likely as adults to face this harsh reality.

In many countries, spending on debt exceeds combined investments in health and education. Child poverty can be reduced through deliberate policy choices. When nations prioritise children, progress is clear: between 2014 and 2024, the number of children living in extreme monetary poverty fell from 507 million to 412 million. 

The Brighter Futures: Breaking the Cycles of Poverty for Children in Kenya, a 2025 study undertaken by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) supported by UNICEF and UN Women reveals that a significant portion of children remain impoverished with limited access to essential services including healthcare, education, water and sanitation, protection and decent livelihoods. The percentage of children living in multidimensional poverty increased from 45 per cent in 2014 to 55.3 per cent in 2022.  

These findings corroborate, 2024 Poverty Report, which reported an increase in child monetary poverty from 40.3 per cent in 2021 to 42.4 per cent in 2022, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Oxfam’s recent report, Kenya’s Inequality Crisis: The Great Economic Divide, highlights that poverty keeps over one million school-age children out of school, and nearly one million girls miss classes each month because they lack sanitary towels. But poverty extends beyond just a lack of income. Living in poverty as a child leaves lifelong consequences: chronic health issues, limited learning, and reduced earning potential. It undermines human capital, hampers economic growth, and restricts the potential of future generations. 

Kenya has made notable progress in child well-being. Between 2014 and 2022, under-five mortality declined from 52 to 41 deaths per 1,000 live births, while infant mortality fell from 39 to 32. Stunting dropped from 26% to 18% in 2022. Harmful practices such as female genital mutilation (FGM) decreased from 21% to 15%, and teenage pregnancy rates have modestly declined. However, a decline in birth registration is also evident noticeably, from 80 per cent in 2022 to 70 per cent birth registered in 2024.  

Investing in human capital, especially in early childhood, yields the highest economic returns, driving productivity and reducing inequality. Nobel laureate James Heckman’s research shows that early childhood interventions can deliver annual rates of return up to 17%, far exceeding other types of investments. The 2019 Cost of Hunger Study in Kenya reinforces this finding: for every Sh100 invested in nutrition, there is an estimated Sh2,200 return. 

Kenya’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda and Fourth Medium-Term Plan emphasize inclusive growth and expanding social protection. Between 2022 and 2025, the Inua Jami programme grew by 59 per cent, and support for orphans and vulnerable children increased significantly from 259,043 to 440,537 households, reflecting the government’s commitment to helping at-risk families. Evaluations of the Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) programme show that regular cash transfers have led to more children attending secondary school and greater household asset ownership. 

Ms Fecility Juma, a single mother and a resident of Majengo Kanamai informal settlement in Mtwapa from Kilifi County, benefited from the Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) programme, which enabled her to send her two children back to school and start a small business to support her family.

According to a UNICEF-supported Investment Case for the Social Service Workforce for Child Protection, Kenya loses about 4.89 per cent of its GDP (Sh588.2 billion) yearly to unaddressed childhood violence. Investing in social service workforce for child protection expansion could yield an economic gain of 2.54 per cent of GDP (Sh308.5 billion) annually by improving population health and reducing future costs. 

This is a time of considerable turbulence. The outcome of intense geopolitical shifts, reduced funding environment particularly shrinking Official Development Assistance (ODA), is reshaping the humanitarian and development landscape. This decrease in resources is threatening previous progress.

However, the recent funding cuts have underscored the limits of overreliance on traditional aid, opening new opportunities to reimagine and co-create innovative, scalable, and sustainable models of aid delivery.  

In response, it is crucial to focus on mobilising domestic resources, shift the perspective on aid to emphasise partnership and sustainability, and highlight successful approaches, including localisation and innovative financing models—that can be scaled up and attract further investment.

The Seville Financing for Development (F4D) International Conference reminds us that reforming the international financial architecture is essential not only to end instability but to ensure meaningful progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. To tackle child poverty and realise the demographic dividend, it is essential to focus on three core strategies: first, expand inclusive social protection by scaling up cash transfers and child-centered programs like Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC), Hunger Safety Net, and Nutrition Improvements through Cash and Health Education (NICHE) to help children withstand economic shocks.

Second, ensure national plans prioritise sustained investment in education, health, nutrition, water, and sanitation. Third, coordinate efforts towards holistic, multisectoral interventions and evidence-based policies and solutions. Educating girls and women, stable employment, accessible healthcare, and protecting children from violence are key to ending child poverty.

Through strong political will and smart allocation of resources, Kenya can ensure a better future for its children and the nation.