Drought, soaring food prices pushing millions into hunger

Carcass of a cow ravaged by drought in Kongor village, Tirioko Ward, Baringo County. [File, Standard]

Nearly a dozen counties are on high alert as severe drought exposes millions to acute food insecurity, humanitarian agencies warn.

The crisis has been worsened by government data indicating food inflation is nearly twice the overall rate, casting a shadow over the new year for millions of Kenyans. 

The Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported that nine counties are in the “alert” phase, with Mandera in the critical “alarm” phase.

The crisis follows the near-total failure of the October-December 2025 short rains. This season was the driest in parts of eastern Kenya since 1981, crippling agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.

The KRCS report states that between 2.1 and 2.5 million people are already facing hunger due to the failed rains, with numbers expected to rise.

The crisis is concentrated in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), where depleted pastures and scarce water are collapsing pastoral systems. Counties including Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Tana River are among the hardest hit. “Water points are ‘near-dry,’ forcing families to travel longer distances and increasing the risk of conflict over resources,” the KRCS update noted.

The meteorological disaster is translating directly into economic pain for households. Data released by the KNBS for December showed earlier the annual inflation rate held steady at 4.5 per cent, masking a severe surge in food costs. 

Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages jumped 7.8 per cent year-on-year, the sharpest increase of any category and a primary driver of the overall inflation figure.

“The prevailing high cost of food items, which have a significant weight in the consumption basket, continues to be the dominant driver,” said KNBS Director General Macdonald Obudho. 

He noted a stark divergence where core inflation eased to  two per cent, but non-core inflation—largely food—accelerated to 11.2 per cent, highlighting intense pressure on household budgets for essentials.

The drought’s impact is evident in the staple food prices. A kilogramme of maize flour rose to Sh77.90 in December, up 5.1 per cent from November and 13.2 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

Vegetables, reliant on regular rainfall, have skyrocketed, with a bundle of kale (sukuma wiki) costing 23.4 per cent more last month.

“What is the ordinary person supposed to eat?” posed Margaret Mugure, a mother of three in Naivasha, voicing a nationwide struggle as families weather a tough January. 

Climate forecasts provide little relief for the country, predicting continued below-average rains into early 2026. 

This outlook is driven by two major weather patterns.

They include La Niña, a recurring climate phenomenon that cools parts of the Pacific Ocean and typically causes dry conditions in East Africa, and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which reduces the moisture flows that normally bring seasonal rains to the region. 

Together, these patterns experts say create a powerful “double blow” that severely limits rainfall, worsening the ongoing drought and threatening crops, livestock, and water supplies across the country.

Aid agencies warn this will exacerbate crop failures and livestock losses, placing severe and sustained upward pressure on food prices as domestic production plummets. The FEWS NET agency projects up to 3.5 million people could need food assistance by May.

“The contribution of food and non-alcoholic beverages to the overall annual inflation rate was 2.4 percentage points, more than half of the total 4.5 per cent,” Obudho highlighted, illustrating the outsized role of groceries in the cost-of-living squeeze.

The price shock extends beyond grains and vegetables. Potatoes, tomatoes, and beef all showed significant annual increases. While sugar prices dipped slightly in December, they remained 12.5 per cent higher than the previous year.

The KRCS, supported by an IFRC emergency appeal seeking Sh2.1 billion, is conducting water trucking, borehole rehabilitation, and food distributions. 

However, the KRCS report flags a critical financing gap, with only nine per cent of required funds secured.